Baseball, as we get into August, tends to tighten up a bit. I am sure you have noticed. We have never gone 3 days with no plays in MLB this season except this last week. One thing you can count on is that I will not be shading plays. I never have and never will. My reputation as a handicapper and sports bettor is much more important than putting out plays just to create action.
My goal is to try to keep you out of trouble while enjoying sports betting rather than letting it torment you:)
Friday we had two plays. A one unit play that one and a 1/2 unit play that lost. Minn +115 won 2-1 and the Angels +151 lost 2-6.
We also had 5 big move games:
St Louis -113
Not bad. Four out of five games move substantially our way. In addition 4 our of 5 won.
I was asked why I do not bet these big move games. These are still in their infancy so to speak. In addition, my experience has been that model-based systems without taking into account public betting and variables tend to fall apart very fast. I imagine their our some models out there that are better than what the books use but they are nothing any of us can get our hands on:)
But on the other hand, the books do not have it so easy anymore. “sharp” bettors are becoming a bigger and bigger force in sports betting . Where 10 years ago it was a simple adjustment to make for the public bias. Now you have “sharp” bettors with big bankrolls pouncing on the value created by the adjustments. So now there is some sign that at times they adjust too much for “sharp” bettors.
This has not occurred in the NFL yet although it has certainly changed the dynamics. It used to be if you were a nonpublic dog bettor you could easily wait until game time and get great value as the line would keep moving with the public. The last two to three years has shown this simple approach is no longer the best. Last year, in particular, the best time to wager on nonpublic dogs was about a day before game time.
This year I expect it to be the same if not earlier. So what you have is a game within a game for sports bettors. What could be more interesting than that!
Today I have sent out one 1 unit play along with 2 big move games.
No for a plug on my football handicapping:)
If you are planning on joining us for the football season the SPECIAL that is going now is an excellent value. If your planning on joining a service for the football season joining us is also the best value you will find in sports betting. All you need to do is look at my results in football and compare the results with the other services. Then when you have done that compare the $ needed to subscribe to the other services with ours. $196.00 payment for all sports from now until last football game is played or 49.00 a month to services that charge upwards to 3,000 lump sum for the football season. A no brainer:)
Now if you’re not planning on subscribing to a service and wish to do your own handicapping its a closer call. However, the cost is so small that just using the information I put out daily will help as filters for your own techniques. I have had a few people say that the Big Move Games have helped them out substantially in MLB as a filter.
Now in addition to the plays for the football season all members will also have the right to ask me any questions on any game they wish my opinion on. I know of no other service that will spend the time and energy for that.
Ok…..The plug is over. Just send me an email if you have any questions. The NFL preseason is less than a month away!!!
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks