It is almost 3 months into the MLB season and it has been an interesting season for sports betting, to say the least.
First, let’s start out by saying we are +9.43 Units Season to date in MLB. That is a pretty good number for the first three months.
But it has been a bumpy ride to get here. We took off like a rocket to the plus side almost 30 units! And then we are riding a 20 unit downswing!
This is MLB. The ups are exhilarating and the downs are sickening:)
But if there is one thing to glean from all of this is that if you do not have a systematic method of managing your betting you will not survive as a sports bettor.
It’s really that simple. You can have the greatest handicapping methods but with no approach to your betting, you will be finished.
Very similar to the many poker players that I have seen that have talent far beyond what anyone can imagine. They see and do things that most do not and can not even begin to comprehend.
But most go broke. They play higher than their bankroll. And Variance finally gets them.
Its the same with sports betting. You need to have a betting method where variance will not take you out.
The best I have come across is the 2% rule. First, you set aside an amount for your bankroll that you can afford to lose without and concerns. Then you wager 2% of that bankroll on each wager.
So you bet size will go up and down as your bankroll rises and falls.
So if you have a 1,000 starting bankroll your initial bet size will be $20.00. 10,000 then 200,00. and 100,000 you will start out betting 2,000 a game.
But remember this is money you can afford to lose completely. There is always some risk of ruin when you are deal with probabilities. Keep that in mind.
I have played around with different percentage numbers. At 3% the swings are much too large. The 2% number is perfect.
Now, this is going to run counter to all your instincts as a gambler. After all when you are losing you want to double up and winning keep your profits. That is human nature.
But to be successful you have to put these tendencies away. Otherwise, you will be just like the rest of the punters that lose their money year in and year out wagering on sports.
So save yourself some grief and take my advice as a given. Or you can learn the hard way, as I did:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks