12:00 Update
We went 0-2 Sunday on two 1/2 unit plays. In mlb, we had Tampa Bay +110 and lost 1-4. In the NBA we had Toronto -6 and lost 84-89:( It was looking pretty good at the end of the 3rd quarter but its no fun for an easy win they had to make it exciting. And that they did.
So we are off to an auspicious start to May. Tonight is a light schedule of baseball but it’s early and we will see what develops before 4:00.
A quick recap of April shows we were +.47 units in baseball on 63 plays and in the NBA +3.6 units on 22 plays. So for April it was the NBA to the rescue:) Funny how things change in handicapping from year to year!
Maybe in a few more years the NBA will be the top value sport I handicap. That was a joke!
Back to work for me as its been a very busy day in the markets.
Good Luck Tonight
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
This sleeping in has got to stop! The markets are rebounding a bit this morning and the first trading day in May so far is continuing its long trend of a positive seasonal bias.
This is going to be a busy week for earnings and also the Fed will be on the horn quite a bit this week.
A few important things to keep in mind:
- the best 6 months of the year for the markets is now behind us
- The market short term is oversold
- for the next 2 weeks or so the fed will be doing very little to provide liquidity
- During this selloff, there have been positive breath divergences
- Earnings, for the most part, have been good
So what does all this mean? To me, it means we get a rally very soon which should be sold.
As always the timing is the tough part. I will be looking for breath divergences on this rally (if we get it) for clues as to timing. In addition, I will be looking at sentiment to shift to being positive. Right now the consensus is on the negative side but not extreme. When these two start lining up I will start looking at positioning shorts and being more cautious on longs.
For now, however, I am going to position myself for this rally. It’s called playing the odds:)
For an analogy, I would equate the next four to five months as being very similar to the next 4 months in handicapping sports. The idea is not to get buried during this period and make a bit by picking high % plays in baseball. But I cannot count the number of handicappers that do not shift gears during these 4 months and dump all their profits for the previous 8 months.
I have always said that handicapping football both college and pro is way too easy once you know what to look for. College hoops are rapidly approaching that mindset for me. But it’s still way too early to tell. And it’s looking like the NBA and the NHL will provide consistent gains over the years now but the number of plays will be very small compared to college football and college hoops.
If by chance my adjustments I made in baseball pan out to have a similar result as the NBA and NHL I will have accomplished what I set out to do 13 years ago. To be consistently profitable in every sport. It’s been a long road the last 13 years but for me, it’s been fun and profitable.
I have been asked recently if I am ever going to give seminars on handicapping or write a book on the techniques I use and how they have evolved over the years. My answer is alway most likely not. As many that know me, I tend to be a very private person. In addition, I tend to be on the introverted side and try to avoid dealing with people I do not know very well.
But one never knows. I am 69 now so perhaps when I hit 80:)
Enough rambling for this morning. For subscribers no early games on tap today.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
