Friday NHL plays
Friday MLB Play
A few comments this morning:
“Hi Rick – I’m not aware of your methodology of course, but it seems flawed possibly, given there have been five consecutive 1-unit plays on the MLB playoff dogs?
Actually my methods would be flawed if I took a small favorite in the playoffs since my testing shows the value in the playoffs to be on the small dogs….especially home dogs and to a lesser degree on the road dogs. If my models are neutral or confirm that then its a play for me.
“hey rick love the blog! trying to become a smarter handicapper and just curious what you use for your models for projecting scores. I get that you use public betting %, reverse line moves, hilton results, ect. but do u do anything else like power rankings or use acuscore, team rankings, numberscore, or your own system to determine when a team is over or under valued. I get if you dont wanna share but just curious Thanks!!”
I have my own models I use to help me determine value. Although as I have said in the past they are the least predictive of what I use. If you want to get a good idea on the predictive value of power ratings go to thepredictiontracker.com. That blog has tracked power ratings for the last 10 years from many sources and posts their predictions daily.
My conclusion from looking over their site is that my observations that models or power ratings are the least helpful in determining the right side of a game.
“how many variables you need of to consider the bet a +EV play?”
Its not as simple as that…..I essentially look at the entire picture I am presented and determine whether I am going to bet it or not. My weights I use are different for each sport. Also as you can see my methods do better in some sports more then others.
Two games tonight in College Football
The public numbers are:
Utah State 66%
San Diego State 52%
On Utah St the line opened at -6 and is now -5.5 on Pinnacle. At Cris -6-108 and is now -4.5. For reverse line moves the number I use is 30% or less. So we are aways from that. In addition the line according to my models appear to be about right. With variables slanting towards the dog. So if you stretch it maybe a lean on BYU….but for me a clear cut pass.
San Diego St opened at -5 and is still -5. At Cris -5.5 and is now -6. Nothing to guide us with the public…..and my models point to the favorite with variables slanting slightly to the dog…so a clear cut pass for me.
Thursday we lost our 1 unit play in mlb on Atlanta, Split on our 1/2 unit plays in the NHL, and won our tracking setup in College football.
Friday MLB Play
Too Early for NHL…will post after 3:00 Also I will comment on tonights College football games before I leave for the Venetian.
The way the MLB games are going right now it would appear I am betting on +700 dogs:)
Good Luck Today