One college football game tonight. The public is on the road dog 56% and the line opened at Pinnacle -10.5 and is now -14. There must be quite a bit of steam on Louisville tonight however I do not have any idea where it is coming from. In addition to see a move that large with only 44% on the favorite would suggest to me that part of the move can be attributed to “sharp money”. Saying that 44% on the favorite is nothing I would get excited over even with the line move. I like to see under 30% before I get it a serious look. My models show Louisville to be slightly overvalued at -14. Tonights game is a clear cut pass for me. In addition the variables I look at are completely absent on both sides.
One other thing I like to look at is to see what number Bovada has on the game. They are incredible in moving the lines with the public. So its a great tool for confirming if the move is mostly public or sharp money. On tonights game the line is -14 the same as pinnacle and cris. That would lead me to believe most of the move is sharp money. If it were public steam Bovada would have the game at -15 or higher. Don’t take my word for it…..take a look saturday and sunday. You will be amazed:)
Now let me get caught up on some comments:
“where is the best place to find where the public bets are coming from…I see every sunday you give us those % but wondering where you find those”
You have several options. 1. Covers has public numbers for all the games and its free. However its not based upon betting but subscribers opinions on the game. For the most part they are similar to other public numbers with the following exception…A. they run a little higher then the betting numbers..so if it says 35% on the favorite….it will usually come in around 30% on a betting number. B. Sometimes the numbers are dramatically different…so I would not recommend them as a stand alone for handicapping but more as a back up as confirmation. 2. Another free option is Thespread.com. It has sports insights numbers on the sides and is at least 30 min delayed but its free. 3. get 15 min delayed from sports insights for around 400 a year. 4 get real time from sports insights for about 1500 a year.
“do you ever bet with the public? say every other read you had on a game was toward the public team, is having the public on your side still enough to stop you from betting? Just wondering if you would even consider it or how often it happens(%)?
“Rick, could you go into my detail about how the public affects your picks?
Friday MLB Play”
I would suggest first taking a look at the article I wrote for 2+2 online magazine about a year ago. That should give you a good idea on the public and how I incorporate it into my handicapping. The link to the article is on top of my blog.
As to whether I bet with the public from time to time. In college basketball I usually do not let the public influence my handicapping except in rare high percentage situations. Other then that the public plays a part in almost all of my handicapping.
Think of it this way. Handicapping is simply a quest to find value. If you agree with my assumption that the people that make the lines have a very good grasp on what the public will be doing on the game then using the public numbers as a contrary indicator on games will produce value as the books when they post the lines incorporate a bias towards where the public will be on the game. So essentially instead of the 2.5% disadvantage you start out with with a -105 line you shave 1 to 2 % from that and start out at less of a disadvantage.
Now between your handicapping and further line moves with the public you can find +ev situations. Especially with a book like Bovada. Of course the problem with Bovada is its offshore with no regulation. But so far the reviews on Bovada have been good.
Thursday we won our 1 unit play on Boston +105 3-2. We Lost our 1/2 Unit play on Edmonton +132
in the NHL 3-2. In the NFL I lost my hilton pick on Arizona +6.5. Remarkably we had our chances as
Arizona had the last drive of the game down by 12. The drive ended on 10 plays down to Seattle’s 23 yrd
line with a 4th and 3 with plenty of time on the clock. Incomplete pass:( ”
1 Unit Play
921 -C Kershaw
922 STL-M Wacha +116
Most likely nothing in the NHL. One College football game tonight. I will comment on it a bit later.
Good Luck Today