Friday NBA plays
A good day Thursday. 2-0 on our 1 unit plays. Tenn St covered fairly easily. The Bulls covered …it could of gone either way but the end game was good to us.
Our lean in college hoops lost and was not close.
Today too early for plays or leans….although looking over the games this morning nothing looks very attractive. I will update before game time if anything shows up.
Thanks for the great site and your hard work.
I have a quick question about tonight’s Bulls/Thunder game. I had the Bulls +13.5 They were losing by 3 at the half. The second half line when it first came out was Thunder -8. Of course if I had the Thunder in the second half I would have won both ways. If Bulls lose by 11 I win an push and at 12 and 13 I win both ways. At what point is it +EV to attempt to middle?”
I think the best way to look at half time wagers is that they are independent wagers not dependent on whether you have a wager on the game or not. In other words unless you feel you have a positive ev on the 2nd half wager its best not to make it. The fact you pick up a middle is irrelevant since it is costing you 2.5% to 5% to put on the 2nd half wager. So why do that since in the long run its going to cost you. Some look at it as protection on your original wager. But that “protection” is very expensive.
My opinion is you ride out the wager and in the long run you will be quite a bit of money ahead forgoing those tempting 2nd half middle bets.
To make it even clearer …..I can say with 99.9% certainty that it is the wrong approach to betting to put on 2nd half middle bets unless the 2nd half wager is based upon a positive ev system!
Good Luck Today