I exited 1/3 of my position in sso at 117.17

Thursday we lost our slight edge on Minn +8…they got hammered!

I had been asked whether the quarterback change made a difference in my opinion. My theory is that injuries are for the most part built into the line. A reverse line move under 30 on the road in the NFL has been a very high percentage play. In addition the line tightened up a bit after the announcement with the line going down to -7.5.

Its one of those setups that just did not work last night. Not much more to say about it.

Three college football games tonight.

Only 1 interests me.

Friday College football Play
1/2 Unit
Syracuse +3

I am putting the game out now as I think by game time a 3 will not be available.

Our swing trade is getting a bounce today with SSO up 1.68% as I write this. The only exit that might trigger is for one of the 3 positions in the trade. But the market would have to move up a bit from here to trigger. Otherwise I will hold all three over the weekend.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

  • Ed

    Hey Rick,

    I have a theory about those reverse line moves when the qb or another key player is announced inactive late in the week. Please let me know if you think I’m on to something or if I’m way off in your opinion.

    My thought is that the line is moved contrary to the action to purposely fool the “sharps” into thinking that the dog is the right side to be on. But in reality, the dog has even worse value than they did before the announcement. My reasoning for this is because, in a nutshell, the oddsmakers know they’re in trouble because they opened a line too low and no matter what, the public action is going on the favorite. So they think, why not move the line to suggest the dog is the right side to try and entice smart money (like yourself) to take the dog. Please let me know if this makes any sense or if I’m way off.

    We saw this with Tennessee last week, Minnesota this week, Minnesota the week ap was announced out late, and one other time i can’t remember right now. All 4 games were blowouts.

    Love your blog! Thanks for all you do!

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