S Dakota State
Models favor vanderbilt….variables neutral….betting is 39% Vanderbilt with the line moving from -8 to -8.5even.. I am passing
San Diego st
Models favor St johns…variables favor st johns….betting is 44% on the fav with the line moving from -2 to -4-115. You can get -4.5 at some spots….I am passing but I would think there should be value at +4.5
Models are neutral…variables are neutral…betting is 60% on providence with the line steady at -2.5 I am passing.
Models favor Coastal Carolina….variables favor coastal Carolina….65% of the betting is on Wisc with the line moving from -19.5 to -20
Friday ncaa hoop play
Coastal Car +20
Models are neutral…variables neutral…betting is 31% on the favorite and the line moved from 0even to -1-102. Public betting favors okl st. Bet or pass okl st -1
Models are neutral…variables favor Robert Morris ….betting is 57% on duke with the line moving from -22 to -22.5. A pass
Models favor Oklahoma …variables favor Oklahoma …betting is 51% on Oklahoma with the line moving from -12.5 to -13.
Bet or pass
Models are neutral…variables favor Iowa..betting is 39% on the favorite with the line moving from -2 to -2.5. Pubic betting favors Iowa.
Friday ncaa hoop play
Models favor Maryland….variables favor Maryland ..betting neutral. Bet or pass Maryland -5
Models are neutral on the game…variables favor Louisville …betting is 52% on Louisville with the line moving from -8.5-106 to -8.5-102. A pass
Models are neutral…variables slightly favor Belmont… Betting is 39% on the favorite line move is -17even to -17 -105. Public betting edge to Virginia. I am passing
Models slightly favor Indiana….variables favor Wichita at…betting is 52% on Wichita with the line moving from -4.5 -106 to -5.5 -106. A pass
Models are neutral on the game…variables favor buffalo…betting is 42% on the favorite with the line moving from -4 -106 to -4.5 -110. Public betting slightly favors W. Virginia. A pass
Heading out to venetian now so let me get the next game unless I do not get there in time
Models are split on the game…..Variables favor Wyoming….betting is 55% on N Iowa with the line moving from -7-106 to -6.5-102. Coming off the 7 from the opening line is a negative as 7 is a pretty important number. That is what is keeping it from a bet or pass on Wyoming…I am passing
Models slightly favor Georgia….Variable favor Mich St….Betting is 58% on Mich st with the line moving from -4.5-106 ti -5.5-110. A Pass
Well it took awhile but the last game of the day we finally found a 1/2 unit play and it won Georgetown -8. Our two setups went 1-1 fading the 1 seeds.
Today the games look much better this morning ..far more possibilities. But a lot can change by game time.
First game today:
New Mexico State
Models slight favor Kansas. Variables favor New Mexico St. Betting is about even with 53% of the betting on Kansas and the line moving from -11.5-106 to -9.5 -106 A very clear pass for me.
I will try to update before each game…got busy winning some hands yesterday (very rare these days).
I was asked about giving some examples of variables I use. There are many but its taken quite a bit of time to week out the noise and find variables that have some predictive value. So I am not inclined to give out much information on this. Let me give it some thought and see what I can divulge. Some however are special situations that have been predictive in the past ( an example might be revenge games during regular season) But that is only one category of variables I use.
Good Luck Today