3:30 update

Two games tonight in college football.

Florida st
Boston college

Betting is 54% on The home dog boston college and the line has moved from -8 to -8.5. Models are neutral and variables favor boston college. I am passing.

New mexico
Ariz st

Betting is 66% on the home favorite. Models are neutral. Variables strongly favor arizona st. I am passing. If you like to bet favorites this is not a bad spot but i am passing

8:30 Update

One thing to keep in mind in the markets that the next 3 weeks historically are the worst 3 weeks of the year. What I like to do during this time period is start getting a portfolio of ten to twenty stocks that I plan to keep until April of next year. No stops a buy and hold for this time period. Now…saying that this year you will have a little higher risk as the market is under its 200 day MA. So I may scale in with 10 stocks and another 10 when the market is above its 200 day. Just a thought.

My swing trade short I had on I exited with a little less then a 1% gain.

8:20 Update

No plays the last few day and it looks like again today nothing in MLB

Here are todays MLB Weightings:

951 STL – L Lynn
952 CHC – D Haren 1
953 MIA – J Fernandez 0
954 WAS – M Scherzer 0
955 PHI – A Morgan 1
956 ATL – W Perez
957 CIN – B Finnegan
958 MIL – Z Davies 1
959 SD – I Kennedy
960 COL – C Bettis 1-
961 PIT – J Locke 1
962 LAD – Z Greinke
963 ARI – R De La Rosa 0
964 SF – M Bumgarner 0
965 KC – J Cueto 1
966 DET – J Verlander
967 BOS – R Porcello 0+
968 TOR – M Stroman
969 BAL – T WILSON 2
970 TB – D Smyly
971 CHW – C Sale
972 CLE – Co Anderson 1
973 SEA – J Paxton 0+
974 TEX – Y Gallardo
975 LAA – A Heaney
976 MIN – M Pelfrey 0+
977 OAK – F Doubront 0
978 HOU – M Fiers 0
979 NYY – M Tanaka
980 NYM – S Matz 1

Not much is likely to change but I will watch the numbers and post if anything develops. Two College football games tonight. Not much there either but I will post some comments on the games later this afternoon.

Good Luck Today

Well they say fed days have the potential to be volatile but yesterday was about as wild a fed day as I have seen! A 340 point top to bottom in the dow. I hope you dont find this monotonous but its days like this that remind me that position sizing is one of the keys to successful trading. If you were short and over sized the temptation to bail when the market was up 250 would of been maybe too hard to resist. Let alone if you were trading on margin and had to worry about margin calls.

However if you had reasonable position sizing you might of looked at this with amusement and this morning have a 1% gain at the open. These lessons come along all the time so if your going to be a successful trader you either learn them or bust out.

Timing is one of the most difficult things to try to figure out on mean reversion trading. Thats why I like to scale into these trades because you almost never get the exact top or bottom. Scaling gives you a better opportunity to profit from these moves. I am still short 1 trade in the market with about a 1% gain if the market opens at this level. With yesterdays dramatic reversal and down gap today a lot of the over bought condition has been worked off in a very short period of time. So I am going to watch for an exit today.

I have a variety of intra day variables I look at and will post to followers when and if I exit. Other then that except for a short day trade I will not be looking for any swings today. Swing trading is great when the markets are trending. But when we have markets like they are now you get stopped out most of the time from either side of the trade. I suspect we will be in a good spot to start up swing trading in a few weeks when we hit the best season period in the markets.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

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