Three college football games tonight:
Betting is 70% on the road favorite and the line has move against the betting from -24 to -20.5 . Models favor the Road Favorite Temple. Variables are mixed and the 3.5 pt move from the opener would make it a bit late to take the dog. The 70% however on the favorite would preclude me from taking the favorite. No edge for me on this one . A pass
Betting is 72% on the road favorite. The Betting has moved against the betting in this game also from -12 to -7.5+107 Its -7 at most books.Models at -7 clearly favor Memphis. Variables favor S florida. But a 4.5 line move off the opener would be a big negative for taking S fla and the 75% on the road fav would be a bit negative for taking Memphis. Again a pass
Betting is 61 % on the home fav. The line has move against the betting from -17.5 to -14.5. Models favor BYU Variables Favor Conn. A pass again.
Its quite a bit of conflicting variables with models on all three games combined with big line moves. I will not be betting any of the three games tonight. Should be some much better spots tomorrow.
MLB Weightings for Friday( Nothing close to a play today in MLB)
965 NYY – L SEVERINO 1
966 BAL – W Chen
953 CIN – K Sampson 0
954 PIT – F Liriano 0
951 MIA – J Nicolino 1
952 PHI – A Harang
967 BOS – H Owens
968 CLE – J Tomlin 1
969 TOR – M Buehrle 0
970 TB – E Ramirez 0
955 WAS – G Gonzalez 0
956 NYM – N Syndergaard 0
957 STL – J Garcia
958 ATL – J Teheran 1
971 LAA – J Weaver 2+
972 TEX – M Perez
975 DET – A Simon 1
976 CHW – C Sale
973 KC – C Young 1
974 MIN – E Santana
959 CHC – J Arrieta
960 MIL – A Pena 1
979 HOU – D Keuchel
980 ARI – R De La Rosa 1
961 SD – C Kelly 0
962 LAD – A Wood 0
977 OAK – A Brooks 0
978 SEA – H Iwakuma 0
963 COL – K Kendrick
964 SF – C HESTON 1
We have had 2 over 200 pt swings in the dow and its only 10:30. I have no trades planned for today. It would be nice to pick up a few scalps but easier said then done. This volatility makes it very difficult to swing trade so best to stand aside today. It will be interesting to see where we end up! Keep in mind we still have another week of negative seasonal tendencies. This is not an exact indicator just shows what the bias is.
A wild day yesterday with the market down almost 200 pts and a late rally bringing the market to close to unchanged. But anymore these days are the norm so be prepared for wild swings if your trading this market.
If you thought today might be a bit different think again. The market was up about a .25% going into the NFP report at 5:30. The market dropped over 1% in 2 min. and so far no bounce! This falls in line with my thinking of a retest of the lows. Whether we get a capitulation ….we will see.
Right now I am flat but slowly considering the 10 to 20 stocks to buy for the 5 month seasonality period which begins in Nov 1. I have some picked out already but so far have only come up with about 5 I like. But I will find at least 5 more.
As far as todays trading. Big gaps are not the type of day to swing trade in the position of the gap. A big gap down like this I would be looking at a mean reversion trade at the close. There are several other possibilities but they involve watching a variety of intraday indicators and putting everything together for the probability of a bounce or continuation. But these are very difficult trades to time with quite a bit of risk. If conditions are right the mean reversion at the close is one of the most profitable of the techniques I look at.
Well during the time I have been writing this the market has dropped another .6% Going to be a very bad day for the longs. My guess…stops will be hit…and panic at least during the first hour of trading. Maybe this will be the capitulation day I have been looking for.(500 to 1000) pt move in a day. Should be interesting!
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