Friday NHL Play
Two baseball and two Ncaa Football games tonight
Betting is 56% on the home fav with the line moving contrary to the betting from -6.5 to -3. Models favor Marshall variables favor S. Miss. Betting is neutral A pass for me
Betting is 55% on the road dog with the line moving contrary to the betting from -1.5 to -3. Models favor NC State , variables slightly favor NC State. Public betting is neutral I am passing on the game.
Betting is 42% on the home fav with the line moving from -106 to -108. variables favor St louis, models are neutral, betting is neutral . A pass
Betting is 52% on the home favorite with the line moving from -195 to -199. Models heavily favor the mets, Variables favor the mets, public betting is neutral
Bet or Pass
Have to leave early today. Two early games in MLB
Betting is 51% on Toronto with the line moving from -175 to -180. Variables strongly favor Texas. Models favor Toronto. Game is a pass. Weighting 0 0
Betting is 72% on KC with the line moving from -138 to -135. Variables are neutral on the game. Models slightly favor KC. Public betting favors Houston. A Pass. Weighting on the game is 0 0
The Rise continues in the market making the market as overbought as its been in quite awhile. Mean reversion traders like myself are having a bit of anxiety as they watch their trades become more underwater every day. But I have a secret for you…..Thats mean reversion trading. Nothing abnormal is happening right now…we are on the outer edges of what happens from time to time. Remember the markets are still under the 200 day MA and also the Nasdaq is not leading this rally. Both of those indicate the fall is coming. How far?
The idea we will test the lows and get a capitulation to the downside is rapidly evaporating. Very positive seasonality kicks in soon. So right now the best we can hope for is a nice pull back. Then look and try to time our entries correctly into the top 5 months of the year. We will see! Whats great about the markets is its ever changing and reflects the psychology of the bettors similar to the way of interpreting betting in the NFL!
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