Two games tonight in College Football
Betting is even 50 50 on the game with the line moving from -3 to -2 on the road favorite. Models slightly favor S. Florida and variables are neutral. Nothing I can see at all on the game that leads me to either side. A pass
Betting is 63% on the road dog with the line moving with the betting from -13.5 to -11. Models slightly favor Air Force and variables are neutral on the game. A pass. Note that Betting is heavy on the dog.To me a red flag to avoid the Dog!
Thursday was a busy day for plays in sports going 2-2 in College hoops and 1-2 in the NHL. Our winner in the NHL was +175 so for the day a .25 loss and also the vig in hoops.
A few words for subscribers and potential subscribers.
The variables I use for college basketball change dramatically up until game time. At times some games such as Indiana Under last night are not clear until right before game time. In the Indiana game it became a play about 2 min before game time. Rather then holding back the play I send it out knowing that some may not have time to get down on the play. Better that some do then none. This does not happen often but its something you should be aware of.
One of the challenges in College hoops is the liquidity is not anywhere close to being as high as other sports. So variables bounce around much more then other sports especially about 30 min before game time. Its just the nature of the beast:)
Saying that it will be rare that this occurs as most plays I can confidently send out 5 to 10 min before game time.
College hoops has just started in addition we still have much of the NFL, College football, NHL and NBA to go. To sign up for plays sent out through my private twitter feed just hit the paypal button on the top right and then follow @rick_sports. Be sure and send me your twitter handle so I can then add you to the private feed.
Also the advantage of having a private twitter feed with serious subscribers is oftentimes you can get some great discussions about handicapping methods such as the one I had this morning:
Question to me:
“Over the last few months (first true analytics class), I’ve developed a comfortable yet novice understanding of several modelling techniques. I’ve listed them below (even if some don’t make sense for this). As it pertains to handicapping, is there a consensus of techniques that work particularly well or one that time and again outperforms others? I have my assumptions of course you know how that goes. I also understand you use Neural Net
I have said quite a bit that models are the weakest of the components in figuring out where the EV might be. Take a look at Thepredictiontracker.com and it will show you how hard it is to produce winning results with models.
To attempt to use models to beat the point spread you have to make an assumption that you have a better model then what the people that make the lines. Considering that millions of dollars a day are bet into the lines that are put out by the books its safe to assume that they are right on top of the best methods of producing models that put out accurate lines.
Where the lines do break down at times is when you include situational analysis into your methods. In addition combine that with what the public is doing and now your on to something. The public is important because the bookmakers move the line away from the right value to 1. Make more money by inviting the public to bet the wrong side and 2. to reduce risk.
But then again this is not an easy thing to accomplish. For situational analysis it has to pass the logic test. So if you have to have an understanding of sports itself or you are going to have a difficult time.
Sure you can do backtesting on variables but your always going to have patterns that have produced profits. The trick is meaningful patterns.
As to the public this used to be a goldmine technique. But more and more big bettors are on to it and that is why you have seen the books adjust and in addition see big moves opposite the betting rather then with the betting. The moves get so big against the betting that its no longer profitable to be against the public on some games.
So its a balancing act that changes every year and is different with every sport. That’s why you see so few bets in the NBA. Its much different in the NBA.
Ive gone on a lot longer then I anticipated but just woke up to begin the trading day. Hope this gives you some insight. By the way the models in thepredictiontracker.com use every statistical method available when you consider them all!
Good Luck Today!!!!
The market is almost a mirror image this week compared to last week except you have to turn the chart upsides down! The market turned up on Monday and has not looked back. We had a healthy consolidation yesterday but its looking like just a pause in the move to the upside. Combine that with the next two weeks being some of the strongest seasonally and if your long your in a position to make money the next two weeks.
I am long a portfolio of stocks with covered calls and also have 4 swing trade longs going right now. You know things are great when one of your swing trades moves up 15% in one day. Yes PACB did just that yesterday and that was after an 8% move to the upside a few days earlier. Nice to catch one of those from time to time.
You can usually tell how bullish the market is as to how it reacts to negative news. We had the Massacre in France the other day and the market dropped 100 pts in the blink of an eye. But last night a plush hotel in Mali was taken over by terrorists with some 170 people hostage and the markets have not blinked. Its going to take quite a bit to derail this move to the upside over the next few weeks.
One thing to note today….there is a very strong downside statistical bias on options expiration days from the open until Noon EST. Typically what I tend to do on these day is take a short position on the open and just close it out at noon. It has a 70% win rate with a very high profit factor. Considering the seasonality I am going to pass on this trade today. I take it however almost every time! It will be interesting to follow it this morning and see how it does. So to make it clear its the first 2.5 hours of the trading day.
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