Nothing on Thurs and today 1 game that has the potential to turn into a pick and it goes at 4 pst. I will update if anything develops later.

An Email:

Rick, what makes your 2 171 shots even more incredible is it happened in just 14 picks!!!!!

My response:

Exactly. When you gamble on a daily basis sooner or later you are going to be exposed to both sides of variance. And if your betting an amount that is disproportionate to your bankroll its just a matter of time before variance will get you.

I see this all of the time playing poker. Good solid players go broke all of the time because of this. After all the edges are very thin playing limit poker especially after the house gets there huge share of the money each year. An extreme example is a player that has a 20,000 bankroll and jumps into the 100-200 holdem game at the bellagio. In a typical 8 hour session the top to bottom swing is 8000 to 10,000. It wouldnt take much to go broke with a 20,000 bankroll. But if that same player decides to play 30-60 he has over a 300 big bet cushion. Thats a good start but my preference for playing limit holdem on a daily basis is at least 500 big bets.

Also consider this….this year in baseball there have been 81 picks. In the 81 picks we have had a 7 and 12 game streak to the upside and a 7 game streak to the downside. The the odds of winning 12 coin flips is 4095 to 1!!!!

So in just 81 plays we have had some dramatic swings. Betting on a daily basis is like a roller coaster ride with hopefully a positive upwards bias.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

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