We had 3 nhl plays on Thurs…Boston had and easy time of it, Colorado got behind and never made a run at it, and nashville ahead 3-2 with 7 min left went into OT and we lost. So a 1-2 day.

Today nothing in football or baseball but 2 games in the nhl that could be plays. I will update later if anything develops.

Also it looks like it could be a busy weekend in football. There are about 6 college football games I am keeping an eye on for tomorrow. In the Nfl there is only 1 game right now but that could change.

I always like to listen to all the comments around the poker table after the weekends football games. Its interesting to see who everyone had and the tough luck stories Including mine:)

One game that stands out last week that is illustrative of the type of situation you need to stay away from is the San Fran Oakland game. Almost everyone I have talked to had Oakland in that game. After all they were +7.5 against an 0-4 team. And Oakland had shown some life and played competitively.

When you see a line like that the first thing you should do is take a look at what the public is doing on the game. My recollection is the public was about 65% on Oakland. So you have two unusual things …and 0-4 team laying 7.5 with the public heavy on the dog. In the Nfl the public I would say at least 70 percent of the time leans towards the favorite, maybe higher.

It appeared like a trap to me…and it turned out it was. When the books put the line out they knew in advance which was the public was going to be betting on the game. If anyone is expert on the public its the line makers. They could of put the game out at -7 but they even added the hook!

These situations come up all the time and usually when something looks too good there is a reason. Another way of putting it….in the Nfl you look at the games…..and when you see one game that looks like a sure thing…you go the other way:)

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays

Showing 3 comments
  • Anonymous

    Your advice if it looks too good go the other way! I related to this way of thinking a great deal. I check the public % plays and pick out the ones they are on the heaviest and fade them on a selected basis. Am not a winner at times but % wise its fairly good. I can't bringmyself to playing on a team that the rest of the herd is on..

  • Anonymous

    i am impressed. i am less impressed with your spelling.

  • Anonymous

    "i am impressed. i am less impressed with your spelling."

    Rick does this to share with others not to teach writing techniques. He posts this when he has the time and doesn't take additional time to proof read because really that is not relevant. Meanwhile you complain about his spelling, yet you still haven't mastered your literary skills. How about a little capitalization???

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