One Play tonight in the NBA:
Betting is 61% on the home favorite Oklahoma City with the line moving from -2-103 to -3.5 -102. Models are neutral while variable slightly favor Oklahoma City. Public betting has pushed the game to where its probably late to consider the home favorite. You have two numbers now that are turned into losers, 2 and 3. Either way I see nothing about the game that would cause me to consider either side. I am passing.
Thursday in sports betting things slowed up as we had one 1 unit play in MLB on Oakland +114 and they lost 1-4 as Fulmer pitched a 3 hitter through 7. We also had a setup on the white sox which also lost 5-7. The white sox lead 5-1 going into the bottom of the six and then they folded:)
Today a bit busier today as I have already sent out 2 one unit plays along with a setup in MLB. The early morning game I sent out has already moved 20c in our favor. I am very encouraged with the new technique I am using to predict large line moves off the the overnight and early morning lines. All the bettor if they fall into a category of plays but just that information alone should be very informative for you.
A few years ago sports betting college hoops there was a strange thing happening in the Pinnacle totals. As you know there is never a set time in college hoops that the totals are put out for all the games. Then when they are it was in a rolling manner with perhaps 10 games at a time being put out in sequence. In any event the totals on many games were 10 to 30 pts off of what my models showed the numbers to be. And I would have to say in 100% of those instance my models predicted the move.
So the way I bet those was you had to be at your computer when the lines were released and you had literally seconds to get down on the total as there we many other bettors that were on to this. So lets say you had 20 games where this occurred. If you were lucky you might get down on say 5. It was virtually seconds before that line changed. But that did not stay around for very long and after awhile since the limits on the totals even at Pinnacle were very small it was not worth the time and energy to sit there doing that every day. But it was fun while it lasted.
I always wondered why they would be putting those numbers out so far off. It certainly was not because they did not know what the line should be. I often thought it most likely was a way for them to transfer money out of pinnacle into someone else hands. But who knows:)
So this weekend is shaping up to be a busy one and along with handicapping I am still battling the “blue screen of death” on my pc. But I think I might be closing in on the culprit. We will see.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks