Friday plays

nothing early again today. Much of what I look at develops during the day. Unless it is obvious the plays are going to be late plays.

These plays are free….so if you want to sign up…just send me an email and I will add you to the group. You can receive these via text , email or both.

Poker Comments:

4. Respecting variance….(that breaks many good players)

This is probably the most important of all. You can be a top player and go broke and stay broke unless you respect Variance.

All variance is probabilities. Variance can work both ways. You see people on extended winning streaks. This is variance. You see people on bad runs..variance.

So…what type of bankroll do you need to play at certain limits. First let me say….that for many players variance is not much of an issue except that it might keep them afloat for longer then you would expect.

Many players play so bad that eventually they will quit or go broke.

But for the players that have a positive expectation the consensus seems to be 300 big bets to give you a 5% chance of ruin(losing it all). So in a 40-80 game that equates to having a 24,000 bankroll set aside to play.

This assumes that you are close to a big bet an hour player. Most players after the rake are no better then a small bet an hour…so depending on what your win rate is the 24,000 would be the minimum required.

What are the chances of losing it all? I have seen people in the 40-80 mixed game go through 25,000 in one session! albeit they played 3 days straight. But it can happen..and its happened more then once and more then 1 player.

If you are a winning player and respect variance in the long run you will be fine.

If your a losing player nothing is going to help you until you increase your skills.

Ncaa baskets:

thurs there were no plays

early sides

Reg side

early total

March
REg side 2-1 +0.95
Early sides 5-4 +0.80
Early totals 15-15-1 -0.75

Feb
Early plays
Sides: 9-10 -1.50
Totals:34-31 +1.50
Total 43-41 +0.00

Reg plays
Totals: 0-2 -2.10
Sides 1-3 -2.15

Jan
Early Plays
Sides: 13-10 +1.50
Totals 32-27 +3.60
Total: 40-32 +5.10

Reg plays
Totals 2-0 +2.00
Sides 8-8 -0.15

Dec
Early Plays
Sides: 7-7 -0.35
Totals 23-21-1 +4.30
Total: 22-16-3 +3.95

Regular Plays
Sides: 9-19 -10.95
Total: 7-1 +5.95

Nov
Sides: 30-23-3 +5.85 (56.60%)
Totals: 5-4 +0.80 (55.55%)

Season to date:

Early Plays
Sides 32-30 -0.50
Totals 96-81 -1 +13.00
Total: 127-111-4 +12.45

Late plays
Sides: 50-54-3 -4.70
Totals: 14-8 +5.60

Combined early and late play totals:
Sides: 83-84-5 -5.65
totals: 115-93-4 +16.10

Late plays:
there was 1 late play on thurs and it lost

nhl
tor +150 L

With the nba and nhl in full gear now late plays will become more important. There is very little overnight action so when I post around 7 am there is not a lot to go by for me. I will only post the clear cut morning plays and will update later via late plays.

These late plays are FREE. So if you want them sent to you send me an email and I will add you to the google group.

Late Play Record:
NHL
Sides 4-5 +0.85
Total 0-1-2 -1.00
NBA
Sides 25-15 +9.25
total 10-12-1 – 1.65
NFL
Sides: 1-0 +1.00
Total: 0-1 -1.05
NCAA fb
sides:
totals: 7-5-1 + 1.75
mlb
sides: 8-23 -11.19
Total: 7-12 – 5.65
Wnba
Sides: 1-1 0.00
Total: 0-2 -2.15

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Record to date:

MLB (08 season)
Sides: 1-1 +0.80

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-93 +3.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

NFL (07-08)completed
Sides 18-10 +7.50
Total 0-1 -1.05

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 33-15-2 +17.15

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

NBA 07-08
Sides 10-14 -4.60
Total 6-8 -2.35

Nba 06-07 completed
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 4-12 -6.75
totals:

nhl06-07 completed
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10

Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00

WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

Oct06: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov06: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec06: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan07: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb07: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar07: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April07: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May07: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne07: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July07: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug07: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sep07t 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct07: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov07: 40 bet +2.00 units +5.39%
Dec07: 18 bets 0.05 units +2.78%
Jan08: 12 bets -3.60
Feb 08 5 bet +0.80
Mar 08 17 bets -5.10
April 08 3 bets -0.25
Year2 123 bet +11.80+10.97%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70units +6.91%
Total: 857 bets +60.50+7.24%

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