Nothing again early today.
I received an email the other day asking about the significance of betting volume in determining value in sports betting. Since the early plays have slowed up I thought it would be a good idea from time to time to post emails and responses on handicapping and also on poker playing in las vegas. So if you have any questions I would be happy to comment on them from time to time.
Betting volume varies per sport with the most being in the nfl where in the off shore books I follow bets came get up to 50,000 before the game. When it reaches this high the variables I look at have more significance. For instance lets say that 90% of the public is on one side of the game sunday morning when 50,000 bets are in. This carries much more weight then say this morning in the nba when 90% are on one side but there are only 1,000 bets in.
Thats why this year as opposed to last year I am waiting in the nba in most instances for making plays later on in the day when then number gain more significance.
Hope this explains it. Again as most of you know I play poker in vegas about 50 hours a week and can probably give some of you who are thinking about coming out here or just have a general interest some good insights. So feel free to email me and ask away!
Ncaa baskets:
I am now able to place wagers overnight. So i will try to post early sides the night before. So try to get an overnight line out if you can.
Ncaa baskets has a 2 month track record now. It has a profit. The sides have not been what I would expect but
the totals have been great so far. Sides appear to be picking up a bit now.
There were 7 plays on Thurs and we went 4-3. Also the indiana state game score was posted wrong on most sites and also still is posted wrong on many. Dont know why that happend but the end result is that the over bet was a loss not a win. I have corrected that in the totals below.
Early totals:
719 george wash over 119.5 L
735 oregon st over 124.5 L
753 usc over 119 W
761 e kentucky over 122.5 L
Early Sides:
740 cal irvine pk W
757 furman +9.5 W
Reg plays
long beach st over 132 W
Jan
Early Plays
Sides: 5-4 +0.80
Totals 9-10 -1.50
Total: 14-14 -.70
Reg plays
Totals 1-0 +1.00
Sides 2-1 +0.95
Dec
Early Plays
Sides: 7-7 -0.35
Totals 19-14-1 +4.30
Total: 22-16-3 +3.95
Regular Plays
Sides: 9-19 -10.95
Total: 7-1 +5.95
Nov
Sides: 30-23-3 +5.85 (56.60%)
Totals: 5-4 +0.80 (55.55%)
Season to date:
Early Plays
Sides: 12-11 +0.45
Totals 28-24-1 +2.80
Total: 40-35-3 +3.25
Late Plays
Sides: 41-43-3 -4.15
Totals: 13-5 +7.75
Combined early and late play totals:
Sides: 53-53-5 -3.10
totals: 42-30-3 +10.25
I will be sending plays on sides 1st thing in the morning as half unit plays and also half unit plays on totals around 12 pst then the balance 20 min before game time. As a side note I am placing the same amount no on all plays even though I feel the regular plays have more value.
Also I am now able to send the ncaa baskets via sms text messaging. So I you would like to change the method you are receiving these let me know. Or if when you sign up let me know which option you would like ie email or sms text.
If you have an interest in receiving the ncaa basket plays leave me an email and I will fill you in on the details.
Late plays:
There Were no late plays on thurs.
With the nba and nhl in full gear now late plays will become more important. There is very little overnight action so when I post around 7 am there is not a lot to go by for me. I will only post the clear cut morning plays and will update later via late plays.
These late plays are FREE. So if you want them sent to you send me an email and I will add you to the google group.
Late Play Record:
NHL
Sides 1-0 +1.00
Total 0-1-2 -1.00
NBA
Sides 17-12 +4.40
total 6-9 – 2.45
NFL
Sides: 1-0 +1.00
Total: 0-1 -1.05
NCAA fb
sides:
totals: 7-5-1 + 1.75
mlb
sides: 8-23 -11.19
Total: 7-12 – 5.65
Wnba
Sides: 1-1 0.00
Total: 0-2 -2.15
Rickj
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
REcord to date:
NFL (07-08)
Sides 18-10 +7.50
Total 0-1 -1.05
Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 33-15-2 +17.15
NBA 07-08
Sides 4-11 -7.45
Total 2-2 -0.10
NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 2-0 +2.90
totals:
MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-93 +3.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40
mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00
WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05
ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10
Nba
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98
Oct06: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov06: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec06: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan07: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb07: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar07: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April07: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May07: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne07: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July07: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug07: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sep07t 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct07: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov07: 40 bet +2.00 units +5.39%
Dec07: 18 bets 0.05 units +2.78%
Jan08: 2 bets -.05
Year2 88 bet +18.10 +20.57%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70units +6.91%
Total: 822 bets +68.80 +8.37%
