On Tuesday we had 3 plays and went 1-2. In the NBA we won with the Knicks +3.5 100-91 and lost with Orlando +10.5 102-122.
In MLB we lost with Arizona +138 4-8.
We also had 3 big move games yesterday:
Colorado +106
Yankees +105
Dodgers +211
Closing lines:
Colorado -103
Yankees -104
Dodgers -223
So far we are 5-0 predicting the line moves for an average move of .126.
Today so far I have sent out 1 play and also 3 big move games.
On my spreadsheet, I am tracking the big move games both as to profit and loss if you took these on the line when these came out and also the moves.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AkTqdb-ikYsN6qaTXTX7w9PgQaW6IvNukLGokgch6M/edit#gid=0
We are off to a good start on these for predicting line moves. Let’s see how this pans out.
I have gotten quite a bit of positive feedback on the breakdown of each game by Models, Variable, and pub%. In addition, if 2 of the 3 are on one side I set these as a lean to that side.
If there is any additional information you would find helpful send me an email and I can see about adding that to the reports.
I was asked this morning on the line to take on the Miami game. These lines vary quite a bit when you look at the landscape of bookmakers. That is why I have said time and again to get yourself a public book and a sharp book. I know it is inconvenient but it will pay off for you in the end.
The way to figure out what line to take and what not to take is to have a website that breaks down the books and the lines they have on the games. Isolate out the 10c books and do not take less than what the lowest price of these books have on the game.
You cannot come out betting with a book that gives you a 20c line. But most books nowadays puts out 10c or even better for MLB.
Once you have it set up the price to take will be very easy for you to figure. There will be times you cannot get my price. That is when you look at the breakdown by books. But there will also be times you get a better price.Especially if you have a Public book that moves the lines with the action.
I have seen public books that put out a 20c line where the dog might be better than at a 10c book. The Bellagio was one when I was frequenting the poker room there.
Let me know if you need any help figuring that out.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
