Game 1 NBA Plays Begin!!!

Friday we had one 1/2 unit play and it lost. We had San Diego +129 and the final score was 2-3.  We got off to a monster start in baseball and have settled back a bit. This is pretty much what you can expect the entire season. The upswings should be much bigger than the downswings. We will see:) Afterall come August 31st if I am not on the plus side in baseball all that started the season on day one and are still around on August 31st will get a refund of $130.00 a piece! And believe me, when I tell you this that I would not have made that offer if I thought we did not have the edge this season in MLB!

Today should be a busy day and I will be traveling today. Although my flight has wifi and I have everything pretty much in line for today and tomorrow so it should not be a factor. My Mom’s 94th birthday party is tonight and that’s not something I plan on missing!

Obvious plays will be put out a bit earlier than usual. While the ones that are closer I will wait 5 to 15 min before game time.

I have been asked several more times about the 1/2 unit plays and whether I recommend betting them. That is a good question considering several months ago I suggested that the variance was extremely high on these and that you could pass on them if that concerned you. Since then I have tightened up the parameters for the 1/2 unit plays to the extent that variance should be tolerable even for the most risk adverse bettors. But again they are not 1 unit plays. But I am betting them and if you have ever played poker with me you have an idea of how much I like to gamble for the sake of gambling!

My rule is I do not have to have an edge to wager. But I definitely need to think I have an edge. That is my rule and has been for a very long time. If I miscalculate so be it but I never wager anymore unless I think I have an edge.

Going a step further I never wager until I have figured out the risk reward, bankroll requirements, bet sizing, risk of ruin, standard deviation etc. This gambling can be hazardous to your wealth if you do not treat it seriously. Those that think the above are not important do not last very long. Variance can keep you afloat only so long if you’re a negative EV bettor. But sooner or later the odds catch up with you. I have seen it time and time again.

Enough rambling this morning. I am heading to the airport in an hour or two so will get the first set of plays out soon.

You can join us for the Baseball, NHL and NBA plays @rick_sports. The sports side of this is a subscription service, however, you welcome to try out a 3-day free trial just to get a feel for how that part of this site works.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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