One game tonight in the NFL. Game 2 in the NFL preseason:
Betting is 69% on the road dog with the line moving from Car -3-100 to -1. So we have the line moving with the action and substantially. There are no models that give any insights in preseason. Too many unknowns so you have to discard models completely. However, with the Public betting and some situational analysis occasionally you might find some value. But very rare in preseason. The variables favor Houston tonight but the line move would be too large for me to consider as well as the public is on the road dog.
As those of you know that are readers of this site, when the public is on the dog that is a big red flag! Typically the public loves favorites and unders. That is just the way they roll:)
So tonight, I view the game as a coin toss. No edge, No lean
Good luck tonight if you decide to wager your hard earned money on this game, I am passing.
Monday things slowed down a bit with only 2 plays.
Both of the plays were overnights with St Louis -104 winning 11-3 and Milwaukee +116 losing 4-5.
Today so far I have sent out 4 plays.
I have gotten the google list straightened out for the most part. But if anyone is having any issues please let me know right away and I will correct it.
Looking over the MLB season to date 2 things stand out to me. 1. The volatility of betting MLB day in and day out is very low this season. Top to bottom has been 11 units. That is an incredible number considering the amount of plays I put out every day.
2. The overnights have been very strong. They have produced almost 400 games and has resulted in an EV of almost 10%. In addition to that, it has predicted the movement of the line over 70% of the time.
My intention next season is to make overnights 1 unit plays. They have been solid ever since I started using them.
Let me also mention that we are right at the point where MLB started taking off last season. That, of course, is no guarantee that is going to happen this season but the low volatility has kept us in the game. Any type of run now will give us a nice season.
Remember, most professional handicappers are happy to get 30 units a year in gains. So last season we picked up 13 units in MLB and I consider that a solid season.
Now we have the NFL and College football coming up. Historically the NFL has been my bread and butter. However, that has changed to where college hoops have taken the lead. I still consider the NFL and college football to be a winner but not near the rate we saw 5 to 10 years ago.
I used to laugh at some of the wagers I would get in the NFL. Quite often 10 point dogs would win the game outright. But things have changed in the NFL. The bookmakers have adjusted primarily because the “sharps” have become a force to reckon with. It used to be the public was by far the primary player. So it was easy to find clues as to the right side.
Now, it’s not quite that easy, and when you do the edge is smaller than what it was.
Another example was college hoop totals on Pinnacle. I actually thought at one point that there opening lines in the totals were designed to let people move money they were so far off. But you only had seconds to get down when the lines were released. That gravy train ended a number of years ago.
All in all, I am looking forward to a fun football season. Sign up today to take advantage of our 176.00 special that takes you through sign up until Dec 31st. This will cover all sports I handicap during this time period. If you choose this just send 176.00 to [email protected] on PayPal.
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RickJs Handicapping Picks