Just 45 min away now from game time and not much has changed on the side. We are looking at 54% with the line at -5 -108 and the total has now moved down to 205.5 even on the under. So we now have a clear cut reverse line move on the under. Nothing changes my mind on passing, however. The reverse line move certainly gives a nice clue towards the under but again nothing strong enough to wager on the game.So for those of you that are betting the game tonight best of luck!
A little over 5 hours to go before game 7 of the NBA finals:
The betting has picked up substantially since I last wrote about the game however the numbers have stayed fairly close to where they were 2 days ago. Betting is 52% on the favorite with the line moving from -5.5 even to -5-106. On site I like to take a look at to see where the public sentiment is likely to be is Bovada. Typically they shade the line dramatically with the public betting. Today, however, no clues from them as they have the line at -5 -105. Models and variables are still neutral on the game. The total, however, shows an ever so slight edge toward the under on the game. Not big enough to bet but still a slight one. That would coincide with the 71% wagered on the over along with a reverse line move on Cris from 207.5 to 206.5. On the other hand, the reverse line move is absent on Pinnacle.
This game really gives very little in the way of clues with the exception of perhaps the under on the game. But for me, the under is not even close to considering it for a wager. So as of 5 hours before game time, I will be passing on both the side and total.
I will post one more update as we get closer to game time.
Good Luck whichever side you chose. Should be an exciting game.
Saturday despite the busy schedule for sports betting in MLB we only had a 1/2 unit play and it lost:( Detroit +130 Lost 5-16! Detroit jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first and then went into free fall giving up 16 runs and 21 hits. One thing about sports betting you do not get penalized whether you lose by a run or 20 runs. It’s all the same on the spreadsheet:)
We also had Three Big Move games:
San Fran +110
With the closing line on these games:
San Fran +126
Baltimore came through as a big move, Detroit stayed about the same and San Fran moved against us. So far it’s been very rare that a game moves much against us on these big move games. Actually, I cannot recall the last time.
One way you could bet these is by combining the % numbers with the big move games. For instance, San Fran had 61% of the betting on them. This could be used as a filter to throw that game out. While Baltimore at 43% and Detroit at 24% would leave them for consideration.
There are a lot of ways you can use these big move games in your own handicapping and sports betting.
1. Bet them with the filter I suggested. This keeps you away from being a % game
2. If you like the favorite and I am predicting a big move on the dog then you can wait until game time to take advantage of the reduced line on the favorite and vice versa if you like the dog. You would bet the dog right away.
3. You could try middles but that is only plausible if you are with Matchbook or Pinnacle. Even then it would be tricky but not impossible.
I have received a few emails regarding sports betting on totals in MLB. Totals in baseball is a completely different animal for handicapping. You have considerations that take the forefront that is typically not much of a consideration in other sports. Weather, wind, and stadium are three of those. So not only do you have to know what the facts are but be able to quantify them so you can use them in your evaluation routines. Not an easy task to say the least. But I am working right now on a way to do that. But it’s going to be awhile before I can get anything out that I think has any value. Maybe after the All-Star Break. We will see.
Also, I have again switched my WordPress theme to try to come up with something that creates a betting user experience. Let me know if you have any difficulty with the new theme. It would be very helpful.
Now as to the NBA game tonight. I did a short write-up yesterday. If you have not read it just read yesterday’s post. I will update that early afternoon and then again shortly before game time.
As to today’s MLB I have sent out a 1/2 unit play so far today and also last night I sent out two big move games.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks