I will believe it when I see it but chances of a rate hike in September is now over 50%. In addition, the rhetoric of the Fed is starting to heat up a bit jawboning a rate hike in Sept. I guess no one has mentioned to them that a rate hike might just affect the Democratic Presidential candidate’s election chances. Or they might feel the election is in the bag so why wait.
To attribute some grand scheme to the government’s action is usually a mistake as bureaucracies than to be more random than logical.
The one consistent theme, however, is usually the Fed makes no waves months before a national election.
We will see:) I am still standing by my opinion no rate hike until after the election. This could create a short-term opportunity to get long the stock market after the rate hike scare sell off gets overdone. Something to potentially look forward to!
I am still long GLD with a nice profit. That is the only position I have now and will look to take short-term swing breakout trades as they develop.
We are still at a point where sentiment indicators are extremely over-enthusiastic. This to me indicates that an upside blast off will be limited. Regarding this think more likely than not. That’s the best one can do in predicting markets. If you’re looking for certainty you’re in the wrong place!
Until we get sentiment at least neutral my breakout trades will be very short-term. Doing this will most likely leave some profit on the table however it reduces the risk of a correction when it comes. In addition, it will reduce the effect of a whipsaw which is always a risk during a consolidation period.
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