A late start for me this morning. The markets are gaping down a bit but nothing significant. The only two items of interest so far are USO -1.56% and IBB +.48%.
I added several swing longs yesterday despite the markets being overbought short term. As long as this market continues non-stop on the upside I am going to go with the flow. But cautiously:)
Today I am contemplating a gap fill play on the ES as the circumstances look pretty good for that this morning.
On the political front not much has changed. Just more of the same insanity. Can the U.S. take 4 to 8 years of this craziness? We will see.
One other political wager I was thinking about that I think would almost be the nuts is the Senate gaining seats in 2018. I have not looked at the odds but I imagine right now you can get a nice price which will not be available a year from now. I even think that Republicans have a shot at hitting the 60 number in the Senate in 2018.
I know that will disappoint some but I am looking at this only from a betting standpoint and not in any way what I would like to see. I only look for edges.
The two primary reasons I like this wager is:
1. People have underestimated Trump at every juncture. He is gaining in popularity per the Rasmusson poll which I consider the best of the bunch. In addition, his willingness to take his ideas directly to the people is working out well for him.
2. There are two massive programs going on now that will hurt the Democrats immensely. The illegal immigration change, and also the investigation into voter fraud. Remember Trump broke the firewall in 2016 in the upper midwest. Without the help of voter fraud, and losing their firewall things have the potential to really cascade to the downside for the Dems.
3. Then as a final note, the Dems obstructionism will not bode well for them where Dems are in the Senate but Trump carried their state. The obstructionism does not bode well for them in other parts of the midwest either.
As a final note, it looks like Ellison has the lead as head of the DNC. I am afraid this will also not sit well with moderate Democrats.
I see nothing to indicate that the Dems will not take a real beating in 2018. But it is early and things can change. But you’re going to be getting a nice price. An overlay …which is all any gambler can hope for!
I got off on a tangent but politics and the markets are intertwined. One needs to know which way the wind is blowing to better adapt to these changing markets.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks