After a soft day in the markets on Monday, we are looking at a small gap up an hour before the open with SPY +.19% and QQQ +.14%. Of note, GS is +.69%.
I like to watch GS as rarely does it diverge from the markets. Very hard for the markets to rally if the financials are not in step with it.
My GLD position had a great day yesterday up about 1.2%. This morning however in premarket it is off .48%. Still, no exit signal and this is turning into one of the longer medium term trades I have taken in awhile.
My thoughts about trading the markets have not changed and ideally, we stay soft until Wednesday when it might be time to get aggressive again with swing trades and perhaps back into a mean reversion trade if the pullback goes a bit farther.
Yesterday swing trades were off the table. Today however if a good setup comes along I most likely will take it. But, I do not have many symbols on my watch list at present. Another down day and that will change.
Nothing new at home or abroad that is much different than what I outlined yesterday.
Note, that the President’s desire to overhaul or eliminate Dodd-Frank, is most likely going to be a very long-term action. The Senate does not have the desire it seems to join in the immediacy of many of what the President wants to have done. Watering down Dodd-Frank is one of them.
After all, before anything can get done in the house or the senate nowadays all possible permutations have to be exhaustively explored as to the effect the action will have on the politician’s reelection chances. Secondarily, the same obsessive process is also used to figure out the effect on what donor’s positions are.
That is why we have gridlock and nothing getting down in Congress. The benefit to the U.S. is way down on the list of things to consider. Until our process changes with term limits and eliminating special interest money nothing will change in Washington.
As to how this effects the markets sometimes slowing things down is good. In this instance, I feel it is a mixed bag. It would be nice to see some medium road as some of the ideas the new President has are really good for the U.S. and the markets. Not all, however, but some:)
The thing to look for and consider is that this rally since Trump was elected was on the premise that much of what he wanted to effect in the first 100 days would be substantially done. If Congress derails this substantially look for the markets to act accordingly. Tax cuts, regulation cuts, increased security here at home etc and you get an idea what I am talking about.
Those are my thoughts on a Tuesday morning.
In addition for those of you that are following this investing portion of the site, I am considering putting out plays on some of the political wagers that offshore books have.
I had mentioned prior to the election that I thought Trump had a lot of value based upon the offshore betting line. I am not second guessing just because Trump won but I think there is value if you can wager on these as the line as skewed by polling that as we have seen are not accurate. This creates opportunity in political betting if you have a clear mind and are not biased by ideology.
We will see:)
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks