This is quite a move since the elections. While one party is focusing on “fake news” the other party is getting on with preparing for the transition. It’s gotten so bizarre that Brian Williams is even talking about “fake news”
Now, I have no stake in this game the parties play every day but it’s getting tiresome to see all this time and energy spent on a red herring rather than the welfare of the Country. It’s almost as though our politicians are from a different universe.
I have to scratch my head and think back as to when was the turning point that started this madness. And honestly, I cannot remember.
I say this only because there is no light at the end of the tunnel that shows our leaders getting serious about running the country rather than trying to confuse and fool the public. This is going to create from time to time substantial volatility in the markets as crisis after crisis comes along.
And talking about a crisis, just when you thought everything was secure for the rest of 2016 you now have a potential for a government shutdown in the Senate. Yes, you heard it right. I went over the news this morning and it appears that the house did its job to pass a temporary spending bill but now there are rumblings in the Senate that a certain group is going to take a stand which could result in a shutdown!
Now we all know from the past that this is a goldmine for traders. They threaten the shutdown, the markets tanks, then at the last second voila that parties get together to prevent it. And then the market takes off.
There has never been in the past a more reliable money maker for a short-term trade than the government shutdown trade. And here we are again.
Before I suggest taking the trade, however, let me do a bit more research as to the dates to watch for. When I get these in mind I will post a strategy in the event we get that setup.
As to the recounts, electors, and transition, it appears the recounts are dead in the water for changing the election results. The electors switching votes is hard to analyze as there is only one from texas that has indicated he is not going to vote for trump but most likely Kasich. Also, there is a lawsuit in Colorado to change the law so electors can vote whoever they like.
Things are going to get more frantic leading up to the 20th. So expect the market to get some scares in the next few weeks. So far the market has not considered a transition problem at all.
Again, I have no stake in this fight except as to how it affects the markets. I will say this again, if the transition becomes seriously in doubt you will see a drop in the markets that makes election night look like nothing. So I suggest keeping track of this if your an active trader. You do not want to be on the wrong side of this one.
I am long looking to get longer before the 16th. I have had a great run with my medium-term swings so far and historically the best is yet to come the last 2 weeks of the year.
The market is overbought right now but as John Maynard Keynes so rightfully put it “Markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent”!!!
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
