Sunday turned out to be another busy day with 5 one unit plays going 4-1!
In the NFL we won with the Bears +5.5 30-27 and San Diego Under 50 19-16. In the NHL we won with Ottawa +128 6-2 and finally, in College hoops, we won with Gardner-Webb +14 70-62 and lost with Texas southern +14.5 59-98.
So when it was all said and done we had a +3.18 unit day!
A couple of instructive emails to share this morning:
“I have limits far below my 1 unit play on added extra games.”
“That is a common problem. The only thing you can do is get multiple outs or a book with higher limits. Take a look at sbr.com and their reviews of sportsbooks”
Let me add that if you’re a positive EV player this is going to come up more often than you think. Bookmakers do not look at the business the way you would think. It’s not we welcome all comers may the best man win! It’s more like we welcome the chumps and born losers but if you’re a winning bettor go elsewhere. You see this not only with your local private book but also vegas books along with offshore.
It’s just part of the betting experience, unfortunately.
Was curious if, in your models or analysis, there is any difference in certain types of games when it’s a widely “public” game vs just two random teams playing. Particularly in sports like CBB and to a lesser extend CFB.
For instance, if 80% of the action is on Southern Utah and 20% on IUPUI, that to me seems perhaps slightly lower EV than when 80% is on Kentucky and 20% is on Arizona, as those types of games get more public money on the 80% side.
Seems that in those random games, the 80% could definitely have a percentage of sharp money and less dumb money.
So was just wondering if that has any effect into your handicapping methods.
“Yes. Generally, the higher the profile games the more reliable the setups become. Primarily because you tend to get more action on the games. Now this is not true for all setups I look at but most.
That’s why historically the NFL has been such an easy sport to handicap. But that has changed quite a bit over the last few years with the increasing number of sharp bettors.”
And one more:
I” haven’t looked in detail but I feel an inordinate amount of your NHL picks go to OT. Is there a way to take advantage of this?”
“Not that I know of. However its a pretty small sample. I would wait until you have a several thousand universe before drawing any conclusions.”
That’s it for this morning. There are no pending plays yet today.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks