One game tonight in the NFL:
Betting is 64% on Arizona with the line moving from -7.5-105 to -7-102. Clearly a reverse line move favoring Arizona. Models are split on the game, Variables are split on the game, public betting favors the Jets. With the models and variables spit this game is an easy pass for me. Public betting alone will not do it anymore in the NFL. There was a day that you could use that alone and have a winning season. But those days are long past. Again, I am passing.
Good Luck whichever side you take tonight!
Sunday turned out to be another busy day. With 5 sports going that I handicap things are picking up quite a bit now.
Our 1 unit plays went 2-0. Miami +7.5 in the NFL won easily with a 30-15 win against Pitt and in the NHL buffalo, +147 won 6-2. We also had 3 1/2 unit plays that went 1-2. In the NFL two totals lost with New Orleans under 53 and Houston under 48. But in the NBA Denver +6 easily won the game 106-92.
I was asked whether I had backtested betting the money line on my plays. I have not but I do know some of my long time followers do just that. However, I have not looked at that so can not tell you the long range profitability of it.
In the Hilton Contest, I was 16-9 going into week 6. With Cleveland making a miracle cover that gave me a 3-2 weekend and now stand at 19-11. I suspect I will get a small pickup from 57th place. Usually, 3-2 gives you a small pickup. Probably close to 52nd place would be my guess.
So after week 6 I am sitting at 63.33%. A solid performance so far. I need to pick it up a bit to have a chance at winning it all, though. Easier said than done. But this is the time I typically put on a monster rush. We will see.
So far I have sent out a 1 unit play.
I received a lot of emails regarding my post yesterday on models, public and variables. I have been asked to post more of these types of posts in the future.
I will try but my time is pretty full right now with the markets and handicapping. Typically I write what comes to mind as I am posting. And while I am posting I am looking at a number of stock charts:)
One game tonight in the NFL and I will post something on the game later this afternoon.
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Good luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks