We finally got the breakout I was anticipating on Friday in the stock market. The question now is, do we get follow through today or does it become a false breakout.
There are some clues we can look at. The primary clue is the spigots are now wide open for liquidity. That has been about as good an indicator as one could have. Almost all countries have joined the bandwagon. Even the Fed after a strong jobs report(that’s their interpretation, not mine) has not hinted at rate hikes short-term.
In addition, we have elections coming up and I doubt the Fed will be raising rates and jeopardize Hillary winning the presidency. I know the fed is supposed to be neutral on these things but so is the IRS, DOJ, EPA etc!!! The reality is government agencies tend to support in one way or another the party in power. That’s reality. So do not expect anyone to rock the boat on interest rates until after the election.
Even then a balanced view of the world should give them pause.
On the other hand short-term, we are not at nosebleed overbought levels. Sentiment is very bullish now along with the market being overbought.
So my thinking is we do not take off from here. We get either more consolidation or perhaps a false failed breakout and then a reversal run to the upside. This would be my ideal scenario and most likely that is how I am going to play it.
I am still long a few stocks in addition to my gld position. Typically on my gld trades, I do not improvise but take whatever signals the system develops. So far it’s still in the gld trade.
Futures are positive slightly 30 min before the open
The first thing I need to do this morning is exit my BMY calls as they expire on Friday. The stock is up almost 1% pre-market but any pullback now would bring the value of the calls down to 0 very fast. The trade was betting on a rebound Friday or this morning. So we will see.
Otherwise, I will evaluate each position in the context of my trading plan for this week.
If you wish to follow my trades and comments you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed and is free. Typically I make a few comments shortly after the open and post some of my trades throughout the day.
Also, this is the last week of the football special. If you want to take advantage of it now is the time. Especially with a full slate of preseason NFL games on tap.
Good Luck Today
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