Government Shutdown = V Bottom? My thoughts

Who would have thought. The stock market is + almost 13% since the shutdown. Trump’s political opponents have to be getting concerned:)

Afterall, a nice market crash would fit right into their game plan. But the stock market as it is prone to do as trump would say ” is a tricky business”)

Most everything is in the green this morning except TLT the the metals. This to me is a positive configuration and I would not be thinking this morning of a gap fill trade.

Where this ends is anyone’s guess. Myself, I do not think a V shaped recovery is in the cards. We are right at resistence, the 50% pullback line from the lows of the previous highs.

I am hard pressed to think that we do not turn lower very soon. But you cannot trade this until we actually do turn lower. Or at least have some intraday guidelines to go by.

Today 1647 on the ES is a reasonable start. If we break that then you might consider looking for some short setups. But even then I would be looking at higher timeframes for the Stoch to start turning down.

Another good technical indicator to use as a screen is the RSI below 45 on your shorter time frame with the Stoch and Rsi on the higher ones trending down.

As far as new trades right here, not for me. I may miss out but, I still have a basket of a diverse group of investments so I am not missing out on much.

My TLT trade is under water, and my FXE trade is on the cusp of getting stopped out. So neither have been stellar swing trades so far. FXE is right at the decision point, and TLT for me is also a semi hedge. And even so neither has a very large loss.

Keep in mind, the political environment has not changed it has only gotten worse. I do not see it improving, especially as the media is providing a shield for the disinformation that is rolled out on a daily basis.

If your getting your info from the main stream media , you are sadly living in an alternate reality. And your trading will suffer. Its essential you get unbiased objecting reporting as a backdrop to figuring out the trading environment the market is in.

In addition, the Mueller report is coming out, at least as to collusion and perhaps obstruction any time now. To complicate thing Barr is heading into confirmation hearings and it looks like it will go through the Senate Judiciary along party line.

The excuse for voting no on confirmation of Barr is that he refuses to say he will violate established DOJ policies that have been in place for years. So of course, the Dems are voting against him. If Lynch were being confirmed now, they would all vote yes, despite she told Comey to tell everyone the Clinton investigation was a matter. That was fine with them:)

But that is politics. It gets more interesting in the final vote in the Senate. The odds are pretty high that Barr gets approved easily. Myself, I am not that convinced.

There are two issues here. Does the Senate try to hold off the final confirmation vote until after Mueller releases his report and do any Republicans vote no. And if more than 4 vote no he goes down, as Schumer will have every Dem voting no if that happens.

The reason this is important is that this is a market moving event. There will be a lot of misreporting both before and after the report. In other words, it will be chaos as usual:)

So as usual:

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: Ricca

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