More on the NFL Preseason after our baseball recap.
Saturday we had a 1 unit play in MLB with the White Sox +122. It won 4-2.
We also had 3 big move games:
Baltimore(my error white sox was the dog) +121
Closing line on these games:
White Sox +123
A rare day in which all three went against us. In addition, I am going to use an extra filter going forward starting tomorrow on these big move games. I have noticed an extra variable that seems to be predictive in the line moves. What this will do is decrease the number of games but should increase the accuracy of the predictions for big move games.
Today I sent out early this morning one 1/2 unit play and 3 big move games.
Now let’s talk about NFL preseason football. The most important thing to remember about handicapping preseason football is that any of the variables you decide to use are not going to have a very large sample size. This reduces the reliability of anything you decide to merge into your handicapping routine. Keep that in mind in deciding if you are going to bet preseason NFL. Variance will be high along with decreased reliability. That is not a good combination for using your regular bet sizing.
My recommendation is if you’re interested in betting preseason, drop your bet sizing to 1% of your betting bankroll per game. That should give you a cushion against what I have mentioned.
Saying all of this there are situations that come up in preseason that back test very well. The edges are not as large as in regular season but they are there. Perhaps it’s best to say bias and not edges. I am going to bet preseason but most of what I put out will be leans not plays for preseason. I will cherry pick the ones that have performed well in real-time with at least 2 years real-time data.
The leans will be backtested but for whatever reason, the length of real-time, Profit factor, and other variables do not make the cut for a play.
The leans should be used as filters in your own handicapping. If you have developed a successful preseason NFL handicapping routine these should help you out a bit.
Also for preseason the leans will be sent out to subscribers only.
There is still 7 days to get in on the Football Special. If you’re not interested in the special but wish to subscribe. Now would be a good time as NFL preseason is here!!! Go to the PayPal option on the upper right of the page and pick the subscription you wish to have. All have a 3-day free trial. Hope to see you join us!
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks