On Monday we had 3 plays and went 0-3. In the NBA we lost with Boston -10.5. In MLB we lost with the Dodger +139 and also Arizona +120.
It’s that time that I begin my long example of drawdowns and variance.
But I am not in inclined to get into it in detail as I have before as most subscribers have been following these plays to know what to expect. There are several new subscribers but the “Must Read” portion of the site explains things much better than what I can put together this morning.
Let me say though, a 0-9 start to the MLB is not pretty, to say the least. But, it is not so far off the mark to cause concern.
Can it get worse? Of course!
Will it turn around tomorrow or even today? It might and it might not.
Variance is a strange thing to get a grasp on for the human mind. Especially if you have an inordinate amount of your ego invested in your plays.
I am not concerned one bit because I bet size almost to a fault these days. I never plunge or tilt. Those days are long past. I do not lose any sleep at night.
We could go 0-40 and I will sleep well. Now that is an extreme example but it goes to show how I approach gambling. I never gamble anymore unless I feel I have an edge. That means the dice table is off limits:)
I gave this example a few months ago but I think it is instructive here to use it again.
While playing poker I was down about 50 big bets in 2 hours of limit Omaha 8. I had a lot of big hands and they all lost. And the way I play usually is to be very aggressive with good hands. So a poker player I know well and who understands variance at least as well as I do, made the comment sitting next to me “when do you decide enough is enough?”
I replied what is the difference if you lose 100 big bets in one session or 10 sessions? As long as you are playing well and the game is good. He replied that he gets mad at the 30 big bet level:)
So that is a conversation between two people that understand variance. There is not a discussion of bad luck or bad beats. Or how could I be so unlucky?
So you get the point I am sure.
But let me make this comment. We are only on day 11 of MLB! There is a lot more to go:)
If you’re at wits end right now or are anguished or mad consider taking a break until the NFL and college football starts.
MLB is not for everyone. Those that were with me the last season know exactly what I am talking about. The last thing I want to do is push anyone over the edge:)
I am always here to discuss any concerns anyone has or if you wish my input on anything you are thinking about.
I know I always write up something like this during a downswing, but I also know from my experience here in vegas dealing with gamblers that few are equipped to weather the vagaries of variance. So I try to help people understand.
Enough rambling this morning!
We also had 3 Big move games yesterday and went 1-2 on the moves putting us at 22-5-1 for predicting line moves with the average move now .125.
Today no plays so far but I have sent out 3 Big Move Games.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
