It had to happen …finally a losing day!!!

4:00 Update

A top 25 team playing tonight in College Football:

#23 W. Michigan

Kent State

Betting is 85% on the road favorite with the line moving from -18-106 to -21-106. Models clearly favor Kent State, Variables are split on the game, Public betting favors Kent state with only 15% of the betting on the Home dog. What keeps me away from this game is there are no strong variable edge on the game. Actually no variable edge.  Models and public betting helps but without variables I typically do not bet on a the game. This game is no different, I am passing.  But if your thinking about going with 85% of the bettors you might want to take another look at the game

Good Luck whichever side you take

 

Yes after a fast start in November we finally had a losing day. There were 2 one unit plays with Orlando +7 and Miami +6 in the NBA both losing.

There is a 1 unit play pending so far today.

I had the following discussion this morning I thought would be informative:

“hey rick

as you know I’ve been following your blog for many years.  and as a paying subscriber i must say I enjoy it even more.  aside from the results I think the most valuable part is further education into understanding how & why lines truly move and what that all means.

the other day you talked about bet sizing being so important.  I had a question for you:

you obviously preach a system of single unit wagers, not varying your sizing based on being on a “hot” run.   I was wondering however what your thoughts were on increased betsizing during a down swing.    If I’m playing 3% of bankroll as a unit, and then let’s say you experience a 12 unit drawdown, then obviously my single units will be smaller.   But the way I look at it, this is merely a mean deviation, and if I’m using smaller unit size, it’ll take me longer to get back.   Even more dramatic, should one consider possibly upping the unit size during a drawdown (to say 1.25 units), since the odds of a +EV player getting back to black should be higher?

In investing terms, it’s kind of like dollar cost averaging.     Hope this makes sense.”

My Response:

“The question does make sense. But the logical way to look at things is that each result is dependent of the results before it. If you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads each time the odds of heads is still 50/50.
What you are suggesting is some type of martingale system for wagering. Those are great systems until you get a large negative run. Then you go broke and fast.
The 3% takes care of that. As your bankroll increases your bet size increases and vice versa.
Unless you can explain to me how the next games results are influenced by previous results I do not see how the betting scheme you suggest makes sense.
Dollar cost averaging does not apply to sports betting as in investing theoretically you have picked an invest that has value based upon certain criteria from the beginning.”

Thanks for your quick reply.   Yeah I guess I was just thinking of it like this:

$10,000 bankroll, $300 for a unit.
12 unit drawdown, so let’s say bankroll now about $6,000.   a 3% play is now $180.    So I’d need to hit an upside run of maybe 16-18 units to get back to $10k
But based on a 12 unit draw down, while it’s not a massive variance, I would expect a +EV player to deviate back towards 54/46, therefore perhaps it made sense to increase unit size to account for the potential for variance going the other way.  Obviously a continued drawdown would wipe out the bankroll.
Reply:

‘Thanks for your quick reply.   Yeah I guess I was just thinking of it like this:

$10,000 bankroll, $300 for a unit.
12 unit drawdown, so let’s say bankroll now about $6,000.   a 3% play is now $180.    So I’d need to hit an upside run of maybe 16-18 units to get back to $10k
But based on a 12 unit draw down, while it’s not a massive variance, I would expect a +EV player to deviate back towards 54/46, therefore perhaps it made sense to increase unit size to account for the potential for variance going the other way.  Obviously a continued drawdown would wipe out the bankroll.”
My Response:

“You need to think long haul. 12 unit draw down is short haul thinking. Think a year or two betting sports every day. 3% is an aggressive number. 2% is conservative.

Any kind of draw down is going to take time to recover from. Its just the way thing work. But to increase bet size on the way down is not the way to go. Mean reversion strategies is tough enough trading stocks but a recipe for disaster in sports betting.”
If anyone has any questions about this discussion feel free to drop me an email.
Amazingly we have college hoops right around the corner. That means in addition to the NHL, NBA, College football , and NFL we can throw hoops into the mix. Going to get very busy in a few days!!!
If you have not joined us yet you can see from reading many of the posts that this site is a serious handicapping site. In addition its one of the few that will give you an opportunity to have a winning season year after year. I have followers that have been with me for over 10 years now.
The subscription fee is kept low for a reason. Its low as its only designed to help me defer the expenses of running this site and also give me a small amount of compensation for my time. Where other sites charge 1000s of dollars for each sport you can subscribe to all my plays for only 49.00 a month. Its the best value for sports handicapping available anywhere.
Take a look at the subscription options under the pay-pal menu and pick the subscription option of your choice. All have a 3 day free trial.
Hope to see you join us for a fun college hoop season!!!
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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