Have you survived this wild week in the Markets???

4:30 Update

One game tonight in the NBA:

Toronto

Miami

Betting is 50 50 on the game with the line moving from -4.5 to -4even. That is quite a move for the betting being split on the game. Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Miami. No clues from the betting and I am passing on the game. This is the first game in the playoffs I can remember the betting being close to even on the games!

 

8:30 Update

Thursday we went 0-2 on our half unit plays losing with Atlanta +117 4-7. Atlanta tied it up after being down 0-4 but 3 runs in the top of the 9th did them in. And in the NBA we lost with the Under 197.5 113-99.  It was looking good at the half with only 87pts scored. But unfortunately, they do not pay off at the half!

I had a very instructive discussion this morning with a subscriber that I feel all should read.

“Are you still betting 1/2 unit plays ? They have been brutal.  You still believe they are +ev?

Thanks”

My Response:

“Every one of them:(     And yes they have been.

Let me explain why…..  Both the 1 unit and 1/2 unit plays backtest out great. As do a lot of other random methods. That is why I insist on real-time and logic to confirm the method.
1 unit plays have been confirmed by 2 years of real time while 1/2 unit plays have been confirmed by 1 year. So my methods that I am considering get added as 1/2 unit plays the next season upon confirmation and then after another  year of positive results go up to one unit.  I also have a filter before a bump it up to one unit as to the sample size.
So it’s a methodical method I use. Unfortunately in sports betting with rule changes etc it is not an easy task to do what I am doing. It requires quite a bit of testing knowledge, statistical knowledge, and common sense. Along with the discipline, I hammer on all that  time.
Keep in mind that we are doing what 95% of the sports bettors cannot do. Grind out a profit betting sports. As I mentioned many go dusted after the first month of baseball waiting for the NFL!
The methods I am using do not promise an easy road to making money. But it does give you an excellent chance of beating the book year in and year out. And yes there is no question as you know being a long time follower that baseball is my toughest sport to handicap. None provides a bigger challenge to me than baseball. But I am still optimistic that we have a reasonable chance at being on the plus side come Aug 31st. We are only down what I consider a small amount in baseball. It seems like much more  and I know it’s no fun.
When I get to the point , I have been there many times, where it seems like nothing well ever go right again, I either quit for awhile to get my brain right or reaffirm my commitment to sticking with the program by going over my past records.
Either way is fine. It is an individual thing. Also as long as you are betting an amount that has 0 chance of affecting you financially your ok. That has to be an absolute rule. I have seen too many gamblers lose everything. And many were highly skilled gamblers but had no appreciation for variance.
I am here to answer and help in any way I can. As I know first hand along with having an expertise in what I am talking about.
I hope this explains it. But if there is anything else do not hesitate at all to ask.
Rick”
Response back:
“Thanks Rick.  Couldn’t ask for a more reassuring response.  I’m staying disciplined and still very appreciative of what you are providing me. More of a late night vent.  My wife doesn’t want to hear it.
Best”
And my response:

“I understand completely.  I have been there many times myself. Nothing more frustrating then betting every day.

Just remember rule 1 is your bankroll size if you lose it all should mean nothing to you except perhaps your ego taking a bit of a hit. Otherwise, if you do not follow that rule your just among the many that contribute to the books. As the pain typically gets so bad you eventually let your discipline go by the wayside. If we were all Vulcans we would not have to take that into consideration.:)”
This is a discussion that is helpful to understand betting in general and what I do to attempt to produce winning plays. If after reading this if anyone has any questions at all just send me an email. I appreciate being able to explain things that are not quite as clear on the site.  Remember we have just knocked off winning seasons in College hoops, The NBA and NHL.  We are only 6 weeks into what is a long long baseball season and are down only 6.5 units. I am far from throwing in the towel yet:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

 

For the first time in as long as I can remember, I am completely flat in the markets. If you have been following the markets this week you have an understanding why. Swing trading right now is a Whipsaw nightmare unless your stops are so wide you have to risk quite a bit to execute a swing trade.

The market right now is about as neutral as it can get. What I look at tells me there is a slight bias the upside. Primarily it’s because of sentiment rather than anything else. There is just nothing that says BUY me right now:)

So I am waiting for perfect setups right now rather than getting whipsawed in these markets. When things get back to a consistent trending atmosphere whether up or down I am going to get back into the swing of things.

The intermediate term, however, I am bearish. There are quite a bit of thing going on that I do not think have been discounted yet. Among them:

  1. The effect of terrorism on tourism

It seems to me that this effect has just started. When it gets into full steam it’s most likely going to be brutal on the world economy.

2.  The crazy war of ideas that is taking place in America

Large corporations are taking ideological views and positions to the extreme rather than sticking to running their business. Up until this point, it has been conservative business taking the hit with CEOs having to resign for views they might have or had 20 years ago. But this is now spilling over into liberal businesses with the Target boycott being a prime example. Essentially what the CEOs are doing is exposing themselves to potentially a reduction of 50% of their customer base!

3. This is now spilling over to the States. North Carolina is a good example. You have Ca, NY and a few other states no boycotting NC because they do not agree with their transgender law.

Now I have to ask. When is this madness going to stop? I am neither a liberal or a conservative but I am smart enough to know that if this trend continues it’s going to take an incredible hit on our economy.

Now the above in no way represents my views on the issues! But only my views on what effect this is going to have on the markets. The trends are in place to cause catastrophic consequences.  So if you’re a long-term investor I would take heed. I know the naysayers are plenty and consistent. But this time, I think is different. It’s a testament to the American economy it has withstood all of this but its only a matter of time before its going to take its toll. There is nothing that indicates this is going to get any better but only worse.

Now if I wrong tell me:)

You can follow my trades at @rickjswings. It’s a private feed but its free for now.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

 

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