4:30 Update
One game tonight in the NBA:
Toronto
Miami
Betting is 50 50 on the game with the line moving from -4.5 to -4even. That is quite a move for the betting being split on the game. Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Miami. No clues from the betting and I am passing on the game. This is the first game in the playoffs I can remember the betting being close to even on the games!
8:30 Update
Thursday we went 0-2 on our half unit plays losing with Atlanta +117 4-7. Atlanta tied it up after being down 0-4 but 3 runs in the top of the 9th did them in. And in the NBA we lost with the Under 197.5 113-99. It was looking good at the half with only 87pts scored. But unfortunately, they do not pay off at the half!
I had a very instructive discussion this morning with a subscriber that I feel all should read.
“Are you still betting 1/2 unit plays ? They have been brutal. You still believe they are +ev?
Thanks”
My Response:
“Every one of them:( And yes they have been.
“I understand completely. I have been there many times myself. Nothing more frustrating then betting every day.
For the first time in as long as I can remember, I am completely flat in the markets. If you have been following the markets this week you have an understanding why. Swing trading right now is a Whipsaw nightmare unless your stops are so wide you have to risk quite a bit to execute a swing trade.
The market right now is about as neutral as it can get. What I look at tells me there is a slight bias the upside. Primarily it’s because of sentiment rather than anything else. There is just nothing that says BUY me right now:)
So I am waiting for perfect setups right now rather than getting whipsawed in these markets. When things get back to a consistent trending atmosphere whether up or down I am going to get back into the swing of things.
The intermediate term, however, I am bearish. There are quite a bit of thing going on that I do not think have been discounted yet. Among them:
- The effect of terrorism on tourism
It seems to me that this effect has just started. When it gets into full steam it’s most likely going to be brutal on the world economy.
2. The crazy war of ideas that is taking place in America
Large corporations are taking ideological views and positions to the extreme rather than sticking to running their business. Up until this point, it has been conservative business taking the hit with CEOs having to resign for views they might have or had 20 years ago. But this is now spilling over into liberal businesses with the Target boycott being a prime example. Essentially what the CEOs are doing is exposing themselves to potentially a reduction of 50% of their customer base!
3. This is now spilling over to the States. North Carolina is a good example. You have Ca, NY and a few other states no boycotting NC because they do not agree with their transgender law.
Now I have to ask. When is this madness going to stop? I am neither a liberal or a conservative but I am smart enough to know that if this trend continues it’s going to take an incredible hit on our economy.
Now the above in no way represents my views on the issues! But only my views on what effect this is going to have on the markets. The trends are in place to cause catastrophic consequences. So if you’re a long-term investor I would take heed. I know the naysayers are plenty and consistent. But this time, I think is different. It’s a testament to the American economy it has withstood all of this but its only a matter of time before its going to take its toll. There is nothing that indicates this is going to get any better but only worse.
Now if I wrong tell me:)
You can follow my trades at @rickjswings. It’s a private feed but its free for now.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
