The Republicans have done it this time. The odds of a health care bill by August 5th is now 45 to 1!!!
This is the same Congress that sent a repeal to Obama’s desk only to be vetoed many times over the last 8 years. But now that it crunch time, not only can’t they pass a repeal but they cannot even get changes via reconciliation. And that only requires 50 votes.
A sad lot these Republicans. They yell repeal for 8 years. They submit bills for repeal for 8 years. And now, crickets. Nothing.
To me this is inexcusable. But, unfortunately, the inexcusable happens in DC almost every day, by both parties.
Our political system is in a downward spiral, with both parties doing everything in their power to remove a duly elected President by whatever means necessary. So much for the peaceful transition of power that Clinton was outraged about before the election.
The point is that this does not bode well for tax cuts. My guess is they will take the same demise as health care. In addition, Wray, to my way of thinking has virtually no chance of getting approved by the end of this month. You can get 3 to 1 on that wager right now. I like that bet.
Although I have to say my knowledge of Wray is a bit sketchy. So perhaps our Congress knows more about him than I do. That would be the only caveat.
But assuming he is a man of high integrity, the Democrats right now would not want him and neither would the never Trumpers. They have it about as good as you can right now with Sessions out of action and McCabe running the FBI. How sweet it is:)
Turn that around with say Guiliani running Justice, and someone like Gowdy running the FBI and this Russia, Russia, Russia that is consuming our lawmakers would be at an end promptly.
But, that is not the case and of course, the markets are so worried they are making new highs almost daily:) Timing is everything.
In a typical scenario where health care cannot be passed the markets would be in the tank this morning. However, they are off slightly, so far.
Of note, GS off over 1%, Oil and metals strong, and TLT up.
To me looks slightly soft for the day.
I had one trade I was taking a look at yesterday but did not trigger. I will be doing the same this morning but the pickings are pretty slim right now for my methods.
Patience is key here. Best not stretch trades and wait for a good opportunity right now.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today