4:10 Update
A top 26 matchup at 5:30
#11 Louisville
# 4 Virginia
Betting is 65% on Virginia with the line moving contrary to the betting from -6 to -5.5-110. Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Virginia on this one. The public betting has a slight reverse line move but at -5.5-110 its very slight. This game is about as balanced as one can be for value. At least, that is the way I view the game. A pass for me.
3:00 Update
Another top 25 matchup coming up in 30 min:
#8 North Carolina
#17 Duke
Betting is 58% on North Carolina with the line moving with the betting from -1 to -2.5. Models are neutral while variables slightly favor Duke. This game is similar to my comments in the USC game that its a bit later to get on North Carolina. But for me, the game is neither a play or a setup….A pass.
Also, I just received an email asking if why I always Pass every game I talk about here. My comments are designed to give you some idea what I look at in the games and if anything unusual is taking place. My plays and setups are reserved for subscribers. I send those out via my private twitter feed 5 to 15 min before game time.
12:00 Update
Several top 25 matchups coming up at 1:00
#21 Iowa State
#1 Kansas
Betting is 53% on Kansas with the line moving from -9.5 to -11. Models are neutral and variable slightly favor Iowa State. The public betting does not provide much of a clue as to value as the game is very close to 50 50 in betting. This game shows no edge to me in either direction and is a pass.
#9 Oregon
#23 USC
Betting is 69% on the Road Favorite with the line moving with the betting from -1 to -2.5. Models are neutral and again variable slightly favor USC. Public betting is slanted quite a bit on Oregon and the line move reflects it. This game is certainly a pass for a play and I do not see the game as a setup either. But its tough at this point to take Oregon after the move to -2.5. A Pass
Friday we had one play and it lost. Oklahoma State +10 stayed close until 10 min into the 2nd half and it was all Texas after that.
Today is shaping up at being another monster Saturday with 97 Games. I was up at 5 starting my handicapping for today.
I have been asked a lot of questions about Baseball and what I plan on doing for the baseball season. As you know Baseball has been my toughest sport to handicap over the years. I have had winning seasons but some of the worst seasons have been in Baseball.
I am still giving some thought on how to handle it. My expenses and time keep going on. In addition, the changes I made in the NHL are the same that I made in baseball. And we can see how productive we have been in the NHL with these changes. We are plus 14.14 Units with a very high ROI. I will figure out the ROI a bit later. In addition, the NHL had had very little drawdown all season. I expect the same results from baseball.
But I am first to acknowledge that baseball has been a tough sport to swallow if you have been following over the years. So I have been considering 1. Lowering the monthly subscription for the baseball season or 2. Keeping the Subscription the same with a money back guarantee. It could take several forms 1. At the end of the season if I do not have a winning season you get 100% refund of your subscription for the baseball season or 2. it could be on a monthly guarantee with a 100% refund at the end of the month if we have a losing month.
That is what is going through my head right now. I am open to suggestions. Perhaps there are some ideas out there that I have not thought of. And of course I could just keep it the same. But I am not inclined to do that as my entire reason for doing this is to provide a handicapping group for people that want to having winning years year after year without the dramatic ups and downs that most services provide.
Ok..enough on that but if you have any input regarding this just drop me an email. Baseball can be an exciting season to handicap. I am very optimistic we will be looking at something similar to the NHL.
Back to handicapping for me. Tip off less the 2 hours away now.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
Rickjs Handicapping PIcks
