4:30 Update
1 game in the NFL tonight:
New Orleans
Carolina
Betting is 55% on the road dog with the line moving from -4 to -3.5-102. Models are split on the game. Variables strongly favor Carolina. Public betting favors Carolina. First when the betting is on the dog that is a red flag to me. The public has a very strong bias on betting the favorite and to a less degree betting the overs. So when the public goes contrary to what they typically do its time to take a serious look at the Favorite.
Saying that without the models showing some confirmation with variables and public betting I typically do not wager on the game. My models in the NFL are the strongest modeling I have in relation to other sports. So I tend to put more weight on them then the other sports. So I am passing on the game tonight. However if your thinking about going along with the public on the dog you might want to reconsider or take a 2nd look at the game!
Good Luck Tonight which ever side you take.
Wednesday we had 2 one unit plays and went 1-1. Both of the plays was in the NBA with Dallas +6.5 losing 83-90 and Memphis +12.5 winning the game outright 111-107.
Today so far we have had 2 one unit plays and also we are carrying over a one unit play into Sunday.
Every day has the potential now to be a busy one with 5 sports in going. This is the way I like to handicap. Plenty of games and plenty to do. One thing to keep in mind with the number of wagers increasing now daily the swings will start to be a bit bigger.
I have received a few emails regarding prop betting that I think has some merit in discussing. The way these bets go typically you lay odds on a future event happening. Now I have no fault in trying to figure out these types of bets. The problem with them is that the vig is substantially more than what you lay on a straight bet. Some of these wagers have spreads where the difference between the bid and ask can be upwards to 1.00.
I always go on the assumption that the books do a relatively good job at coming up with where the line should be. And actually, I make that assumption when I handicap the games. So if the books for whatever reason go haywire and start coming up with screwy lines my techniques would be in trouble. But the assumption that the books come close is a pretty safe one:)
So if that is the case these prop bets will have a difficult time having any value. It’s hard enough to beat a 10c line in money line sports or laying -110 in spread betting. It’s next to impossible to attempt to beat spreads in the neighborhood of 1.00 or even higher on occasion.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
