How, Historically does December go for the Stock Market??? Hint....Very Good....But!!!

How, Historically does December go for the Stock Market??? Hint….Very Good….But!!!

A new week and premarket looks fine. SPY and QQQ both up a bit less than .5%. TLT down almost .5%. Dollar off .27% Gold down almost 1% and IBB showing some life up almost 1%.

We are in December now and this is the time to make some money. Although historically there tends to be weakness the first half of the month.

I am long although I exited a number of trades last week. Also, my last 3 Breakout trades had no followed through so I took small losses.

I have a number of candidates for trades and will wait and see how the breath lines up the first 15 min of trading as to how aggressive I will be today.

Let me also mention that ideally, we get more of a pullback here this week and then if you’re ever going to throw caution to the winds trading (there is never a time to do that)  this would be the time. Front Dec 16 to Jan 6th is the time to be long. I do not think there is  a stronger more reliable 2 week period of the year. My plan is to trade it aggressively. But I am always flexible in my plans.

On the home front not much to report. The transition is still going smoothly although it is becoming more and more clear that there will be no bringing together the Republicans and Democrats for the Benefit of the U.S. If anything the battle lines are becoming clearer and the talk is no quarter given. I suspect every appointment is going to be fought with a good chance some of the never trumpers joining in the fight.

For those of you old enough to remember I expect the process to get as heated as the Bork fight years ago.

It is not going to be pretty. It will be interesting to see how my prediction plays out but so far it seems very clear what is ahead. The only question I have is will the Republicans use the nuclear option (or better called the Reid Kaine rule).

If they do not it will be gridlock worse than what we saw under Obama. Not only that the rhetoric will get much worse.

For the markets, that means more volatility.

On the geopolitical front things have settled down substantially. Of note, however, the putting on of sanctions to Iran is causing some uncertainty as to how Iran will respond and Trump’s taking a call from the Taiwan President has China sounding off. But I suspect neither of these to influence the markets in the short run.

One other item of Interest is that Italy is most likely the next to leave the EU. I put the odds at 50/50 whether the EU survives the next 5 years.

Always interesting times, to say the least. If I had one wish over the new year it would be that both parties would move to the center and start a new road for the U.S. political scheme where respect and negotiation for the benefit of the U.S. are the top priority. The odds of this happening are unfortunately 0!!!

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


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