3:30 Update
Sunday we went 3-0 for plays. Minn in the NFL was an easy winner. And we had 2 NHL plays that both won. The final tally was +3.96 Units. That puts us on a 5-0-1 run for 6.16 Units in the last two days! Our setup in the NFL lost.
Today a very light schedule but its a good time to consider joining the best handicapping service around. Just hit the paypal button and join our group.
For subscribers I will be sending out plays shortly before game time.
If your trading on the long side my condolences. And that is to myself also as I am riding this one out with a small portfolio of stocks and some mean reversion trades. Nice way to start the New Year. I rode out 2008 and by some miracle I was completely out of the market the day we had the flash crash. But this start of the year should cause everyone some concern. Not because of the drop. Not because of its the worst week ever in existence. But because the Federal Reserve is almost in lockstep to feel the need to panic the markets by announcing come hell or high water there is going to be at least 4 rate hike this year.
Helicopter Ben must be losing a lot of sleep while Greenspan is most likely laughing. These two lead America through some pretty tumultuous financial times with a steady hand and a comforting voice. The voice was always consistent …do not worry I will do everything I can to stabilize the economy. And now we get not a different Fed but an activist Fed. Who seems to enjoy the media and parading out as our politicians do every chance they get.
It will be interesting how this all plays out. I have my thoughts but I am in a good mood this morning after going 3-0 yesterday in sports winning almost 4 units. And that is after a 2-0-1 day for another 2.2 units. So a 5-0-1 run including NHL dogs! So it will take a lot for me to go to the dark side today:)
My thoughts this week is to say the market is at least short term oversold is an understatement. Their are several caveats however. We are below the 200 day MA. The NASDAQ is no longer leading and the scary death cross will happen today. Not a great environment for longs. But its not all dismal as we still have positive seasonality through the end of april. That is no small thing.
It would not take much for this market to rocket to the upside. Just a hint of intellect from the Fed would do the trick. Or china news turning into good news, or Europe coming out with a massive QE, or Israel and the Palestinians make peace and come to a two state solution. Any one of these probably has an equal chance of happening today. So we will need to maintain our discipline irregardless how tempting it is to over trade now to try to get even this week. Recovering is going to be a meticulous process doing what we do every day.
Oh and almost forgot the market is up almost 1/2 % this morning 40 min before the open. That is after being down over 1% overnight and the Chinese market closing down 5%. A good sign…better then a huge gap down. Will it hold I am thinking today it might.
Although a key time to watch:
US-Dennis Lockhart Speaks – 11:40 AM EST
This would be the time say around 11:39 to position yourself short in the futures for a short term swing trade to the downside:) It has worked almost without fail. Be sure and have a tight stop in because if he waffles just a little you will see a +200 pt upside swing in the blink of an eye.
RickJ
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