Some interesting developments over the weekend that I think give a little insight into some of the political odds posted.
Back when I originally posted my thoughts on a few of the political lines out there Kasich was even money to run in 2020. I predicted then that the odds should be closer to 3 to 1.
The odds are now 6 to 5 in favor of him running. I think the odds have gone up for him to run to closer to 4 to 1. Remember Kasich stayed in the race when he was completely out of it. I doubt he will do anything to help Trump despite his overtures to Trump after the election.
Next, we have Heller in Nevada. He is running against Tarkanian in the primary. Yes, one of the most popular names in Nevada. Very high voter recognition.
The odds are 6 to 4 now against Heller. I think it should be closer to 5 to 1 against, maybe higher.
Then we come to Ryan. He is down to 5 to 1 to win the primary from 8 to 1 earlier. I had originally thought the line should be closer to 3 to 1.
Several things have happened this weekend. First Ryan is now trying to tie DACA to the tax bill. in one form or another. This is not a very popular way to go with the base. Matter of fact, I do not think it will be long before Bannon starts taking direct action to prevent Ryan from winning the primary.
But that is not all. Ryans biggest political donor has been outed as being behind the original financing of the infamous Russian dossier. All the more reason for Bannon to take an aggressive stance against him winning the primary.
In the atmosphere that is around now, I would put the odds closer now to 2 to 1 in favor. It would not surprise me by primary time to see him at even money.
At 5 to 1 this looks as good a longshot as you will find in the political betting arena.
Another interesting race I have not commented on is the governor race in Virginia. The line is now 3 to 1 in favor of the Democrat. I put the line at 8 to 5 at best. The polls have put the race closer to a tossup. Especially when you factor in that most of the polling you can add 5 points to the Republican running and get a more accurate figure.
The lines on the special counsel convictions are just coming out now. I have some early thoughts but not enough to formulate lines. They will be coming soon.
If you have any questions feel free to comment.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks