Is the Human Mind the most important variable in being a successful sports bettor?

Plays picked up a little on Sunday with 3 plays and a lean.

We had 3 overnights that went 2-1.

Pitt -117 won 3-1, Arizona +101 won 5-1 while Toronto +125 lost 4-5.  A +.505 unit day as Overnights this season are 1/2 unit plays.

Next season they will be 1 unit plays. The overnights are very high volume with a very nice ROI. The drawdown on these has been minimal.

In addition, it appears that they do not get weaker as the season progresses. They stay steady all season. These will most likely turn into the cornerstone of my MLB wagering next season. Although Totals look very good but they do not come along very often.

We had a lean in College football last night on Texas A&M +6. We won that lean with Texas A&M covering 44-45. 

Today so far I have sent out 7 plays. So it picks up. The ebb and flow of betting seem to be with us right now, so perhaps we will have a nice run into the end of regular season in MLB.

While most bettors do not want to even hear the word baseball right now we are well positioned to have a nice season with any kind of run into the end of September. Also, Playoffs tend to produce value also. We will see:)

I received the following email that I believe is instructive:

“Morning Rick

Is the 1/2 unit college plays a new subset? Will there be NFL 1/2 units? What are they differences in 1/2 vs 1?  Apologies if you’ve answered this but I go back and forth on the 1/2 units but ultimately play them because you do.

Thank you.”

My Response:

“I am trying to make each sport similar in the betting scheme. So right now I intend to have 3 categories in each sport, 1 unit. 1/2 unit and lean.

The difference between 1 unit and 1/2 unit plays is the size of the real time exposure. The guideline is 1 year of real time is 1/2 unit while 2 years is 1 unit.

Now, this is just a guideline as sometimes a big enough sample is generated earlier than 2 years.”

Let me also add it is impossible to draw definite conclusions based upon what was good the previous season. The sample sizes are just too small to let it influence you a lot.

What is great one season might be surpassed by something that lagged. Or there might be new methods that take the lead (as in Overnights)

I do make adjustments and I suggest you use them rather than drawing your own conclusions on these. Unless you’re a seasoned handicapper and gambler your mind will most likely lead you astray.

As I have mentioned so many times before the human mind typically sabotages gamblers at every step of the way. You need to not only be aware of that but also learn how to deal with it.

Not an easy task. That is why so few succeed at any aspect of gambling. If they are not positive EV than probabilities will do them in, If they do not bet size correctly it will be variance that finishes them off, and if they have these 2 under control then the human mind will tug and pull at them every day.

Over the years I have seen some of the most skilled poker players go dusted. When I mean skilled, I do not mean just good. I mean gifted, their minds are lightening sharp. I used to be at the table with many and also had bridge partners in that category.

I used to lean back and relax at bridge when they were playing the hand and thinking through the bidding. I knew that they without exception would get the right line of play. I used to laugh to myself when I observed them thinking.

But again it matters not how gifted you are if you do not get the human element under control. And of all the different things you have to master in wagering, the human mind is by far the most difficult.

Enough rambling his morning:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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