Got a break this morning to post a bit on sports betting.
Since I have gotten back to basics we got off on a nice run and since have been slipping a bit. But at least the free fall from the 1/2 unit new bets have stopped.
In addition, I have been monitoring the new bets and they are still looking pretty good. Until I figure out what happened I am not going to put them out or bet on them myself.
We have two football games coming up. I sent out a play very early in the week on Jacksonville +9.5. Since then the line is down to +7 in several sports and I have suggested no middles this time around. Just take the best of the line and tough it out:)
Some emails I think are instructive:
“Rick, when you put this play out I got the line of jags +9.5 -113. Now I see it’s down to +7 -110 on my books. Would you consider going for a middle on this game now or just leave it alone? Thanks.”
“I am going to leave it alone. I typically have bet middles when the line move produces edges on the other side by way of variables. Here nothing has changed at all.
In most of these situations, it’s best to know you have way the best of it and let the chips fall where they may:)
Middles tend to lower your EV over the long run.”
“Would you consider trying to go for the middle on your Jacksonville bet if the line drops further, say to -6.5?”
“I am going to stick with the +9. No middle on this game. The reason is that I see nothing that points to NE. I went for a few middles before as the line move shifted some of the things I look at. But here nothing has shifted at all.”
My subscribers and I have the fortune to be sitting on Jacksonville +9.5. The line movement is a result of Brady being injured in part and also the sharp action on the game.
Its long past time to wager on the game but this is an example of some of my thinking on the game.
I had the game overvalued when I first handicapped the game when the lines were put up.
Now let’s see how it ends up:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks