At long last, the impeachment nightmare is behind America. It started before Trump was elected and has ended 9 months before he is up for reelection. When you add up the tally my guess is close to 100 million was spent on this fiasco. And all taxpayer money.
Has America learned any lessons from this? My guess is no. Expect more of this, especially now that the Senate gave some thought to hearing witnesses and Romney voted to convict. So, its open season now.
Then we move onto Iowa, and the Dems still cannot come up with the final tally on the vote count. As soon as I saw Podesta in the mix, along with an app financed in part by Soros, it was a sure thing that chaos would develop. And it has.
Let’s take a quick look at the odds and see what changes Iowa and the acquittal brought:
Trump is now a slight favorite to win the 2020 presidential election While Sanders is the closest to him at 5 to 2. Biden has dropped to 10 to 1 with Bloomberg up to 7 to 1.
What is clear is Biden is toast. Now it is just who survives to run against Trump. Sanders is the front runner but establishment Dems are not going to let him have it. So it will either be Bloomberg or another person yet to enter the race. My guess:)
The Republicans are now pulling ahead in the odds to win the presidency at 54-46. I expect that to keep going up as we get closer to November.
The only sure casualty I can see from all of this is Romney. One has to wonder what he was thinking, but whatever it was he is now a pariah in the Republican party. The base will never forget this.
Other casualties will be Jones in Alabama, but he was gone no matter which way he voted. Manchin is toast, but he has 4+ more years in his term. Voters in WV will not forget this betrayal. In a sense, his was worse than Romneys as WV is one of the strongest Trump states in the Country. He betrayed his constituents, essentially giving them the middle finger.
Collins has weakened herself on the witness vote, how this plays out in November remains to be seen. But she does not have a primary challenge so I anticipate Trump will support her and bring her over the finish line.
As I said yesterday, America needs 2-year terms in the Senate, Term limits, Campaign finance reform, and a complete investigation into who else is stealing taxpayer money from foreign aid, by having there children work for foreign companies. This is not isolated to Biden. My guess is it is common practice, by both parties.
Other odds:
Control of the House: 5 to 2 in favor of the Dems
Control of the Senate: Just a tad less than 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans.
I like getting 5 to 2 that the Republicans take the House. As I see it it is going to hang on controlling voter fraud. If they get that done, the Republicans should take back the house easily. Getting 5 to 2 on what I see is at worst even money is a pretty good overlay.
I am waiting for lines to come out on the republican primary races and the senate and House races individually. That I think is where the easy money will be this year.
I will be looking to fade virtually every House member that is running in States that Trump won. With any luck, I will be getting plus odds on most of them as they will be the incumbent.
I am also going to be taking a close look at Graham in the primary. He has a primary challenger, and my guess is he will be a 10 to 1 favorite. Getting 10 to 1 that Graham will lose in the primary seems like a reasonable wager to me.
Once the new lines come out with the various matchups I will be looking to make some wagers.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds
