An interesting game tonight involving 8th ranked Kansas:
47% Kansas -8.5 -9-115 -8.5 -9.5-105
Models every so slightly favors Oklahoma, Variables are neutral, public % is neutral
What makes this game interesting is that Kansas only has so far 47% of the betting on them but the line has move contrary from the action. Typically when the dog has over 50% of the betting on them I like to take a serious look at the favorite. I have done that in this game and am going to pass. First, the 47% is within the margin of error. The place I get these numbers from I give at least a 2% degree margin of error both ways in handicapping the game. In addition, the models have the game slightly overvalued right now on Kansas. All in all this game is an easy pass. Should be some better spots, maybe not tonight but soon.
On Sunday for sports betting, we had 1 play and it was in the NHL. Edmonton +125 was a 1 unit play and won 4-2.
Today so far I have sent out no plays.
My thoughts on the Illinois Nebraska game turned out correct. You rarely see a reverse line move of that size with only 18% of the betting on the team. The good thing is -1.5 Nebraska to -1 Illinois is not that huge a move. Much smaller than say +7 to +4.5.
No key numbers involved yesterday.
These are the types of breakdowns I give out in all ranked matchups in college sports. Additionally all NFL games.
If you’re doing your own handicapping these are a nice guide to input into the criteria that you use.
All handicappers have their own tricks that have developed over the years that have turned them into a positive EV handicapper. It’s nice to be able to incorporate someone else also into your routine.
Most handicappers will not share their thought process other than to give some generic matchup information on the game. Typically if the person is a winning handicapper they rarely use the information they give out to decide whether to bet the game. They use information similar to what I give out to subscribers.
How interesting would it be to say 18% of the betting is on Illinois with a 2.5 pt reverse line move as a consideration to play Illinois or to at least stay away from Nebraska? For the uninformed, it would put most quickly to sleep:)
But instead, they talk about injuries, Center matchups, the bench etc. Almost all of which in my opinion you can discard completely. There is perhaps a tenth of 1 % of the universe of handicappers that can match up a game that way and pick winners. That might be too high a number!
Think of the professional sports players that retired and went on to bet on games. Most have gone dusted.
Now, injuries can play a role but not in the way you might think. The NBA is a very good example. One of the strongest situations in the NBA is a game after losing a key player. The more important the key player is the better the wager is.
The situation is you bet on the team that has the injury:) Yes, does not seem very logical. But handicapping to be successful you have to develop a perverse sort of logic.
But the more you get acquainted with being a contrarian the more you understand the thought process involved. The books know that the public, for the most part, is going to pound the other side of the game. They will bet against the team that is injured. So the books take this into account when putting out the line.
If your fading the injured team your automatically taking the worst of what the line should be. But combine it with the idea that after the line is put out the punter who is deciding who to wager on is going to also bet against the injured team. So sometimes you get to fade not only the inflated opening line but the movement after the line is put out.
This situation is only good for the 1st and maybe the 2nd game after the injury. Myself, I restrict the wager to only the first game after a key injury.
If your going to bet this technique there is one more thing to consider. The timing of the bet. It used to be you could wait right up until game-time.
Not anymore. I would make the wager now before noon or perhaps 4 hours before game time. The “sharps” typically will be trying to figure out when they feel the maximum line movement is and then start pounding the game. Typically when they do the line starts moving back the other way.
There is a lot more I could say about this but for now this should give you some ideas.
As you know, March Madness is only a few weeks away.
I am having a special for March Madness. It is only $44.00 from the day you sign up until April 2nd. In addition, you get all plays from all sports during this time delivered to you via my private twitter feed and via email.
I have made it easy to sign up. Just use this link and I can get you started within minutes!
Hope to see you join us for a fun NCAA Tournament.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks