The indexes are off about 1/3% this morning. TLT +.75% @CL -.60% and vix.x +4%
This is a negative premarket. Watch to see how vix.x reacts this morning. If it head toward +7% expect a further dip, if it heads toward 0 expect at least a gap fill.
A lot of market-moving news today. China’s trade is up in the air. Live star-chamber hearings begin in the House today. The rules could not have been set better if Stalin had made the rules.
The Democrats get a Lawfare Attorney to cross-examine witnesses, while the Republicans get none. The Democrats determine who is to be called, The Republicans have no say in calling witness’, as the ones they suggested were all turned down by Schiff.
For all intents and purposes, this is a continuation of the Russia Russia Russia hoax to remove the President. I know there is a lot of anxiety among Trump supporters. All I can say is, watch the odds. They have stayed at 82/18 against conviction in the Senate. If this falls to 2 to 1 or less, its time to be concerned.
Do not believe a word of what the media says or the political spin. Either watch it yourself or find a good investigative reporter who will give you an honest take on what is occurring. There is a handful. Strassel from the Wall Street Journal is excellent. I have no doubt she will be covering this. There are more but she has no ideology, just plain straight reporting.
For the law look toward Turley and Dershowitz. Both are liberals, and both have the highest levels of integrity. They will not steer you wrong. Now they may disagree on an issue or two, but listen to them and you will have a good idea of what the legal issues are. Dershowitz has already come out and side the House hearings are right out of the Stalin area.
I have not seen much from Turley yet on this.
I am still not convinced they have the votes in the House to impeach. Remember they have had two votes. Both have failed. But it seems the pressure will prevail and impeachment will likely occur.
Then it gets to the Senate. I have little doubt if it was a secret vote Trump would be toast. But since it has to be open voting, the odds of conviction, in my opinion, are still around 10 to 1 against. The betting odds are a bit over 4 to 1 against.
But the Republicans spend 2 years investigating the fake Russia hoax, knowing it was fake. The pressure will be enormous. And there will be the usual suspect that will convict. Romney and a few others. We will soon find out for certain who the traitors are in the Senate. I already have a good idea, but this vote will leave all doubt behind.
This is a dark time in American History. How dark it gets remains to be seen. Let’s take it day by day and I will try to update my thoughts as things unfold.
I assure you if the market thinks removal is a possibility it is going to head south.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the genius Powell testifies at 11 eastern time.
So a lot to keep track of today if you are an active trader.
Let’s look at the updated political odds:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 47/53 +3 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 76/24 -2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 17/83 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 79/21 +1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 No Change
Warren: 17/83 – 2 Pts
Biden: 14/76 +1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 4/96 No Change
Clinton 5/95 + 1 PT
LA Governor’s race 55/45 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) -2 PTS
KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 40/60 -3 Pts I laid 40/60
Not much change to speak of. One wager that looks reasonable is to take the 17/83 on conviction with the idea of laying it off when the inevitable scare hits. I suspect you can pretty much get a quick .10 profit without much risk. The only way you would lose if there is no drama in the Senate, or the House does not impeach.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks