Wednesday we went 0-3 on our plays. And we spread it out losing in the NBA,NHL and college hoops. Unfortunately no way to avoid draw downs just have to see how long this one lasts. As I explained you keep score at the end of the year not day by day. Variance is something you have to deal with.
A busy schedule today and have just gotten started handicapping the games. I will send out plays to subscribers shortly before game times.
If your trading this market and keeping your sanity you have passed the test. It does not get much more difficult then this and that is after a very difficult 2015. If your hanging in there. Maintaining your discipline. Not panicking (its normal to get a tinge of panic) . Not increasing your sizing to get even.
If all of the above are true then my hats off to you. You have a time ahead of you in trading that will be very rewarding both financially and mentally. If on the other hand you have been losing sleep, considering quitting trading for good, selling all your positions because you just want to stop the bleeding, are getting mad at your dogs and cats then its time to adjust or quit. Save yourself years of torment. Quit and work on getting your mind right. Once your mind goes its over.
I say this because not only is it true but its very difficult for one to keep there perspective in times like this. So reading the above might trigger and ahha moment for you. But the reality is while not everything I say is the gospel you should give it some consideration as at 68 I know my customers:) From being a trial attorney to playing poker to playing the markets one thing I know is human nature. And sometimes its not pretty. Reread my Must read section on the top of the site. It will give you a bit of perspective.
In addition I am just an email away for advice. I have gotten quite a few emails over the years from distraught gamblers and I like to think I have helped in some manner getting them back on track.
Ok enought of the cheery news. The market is up almost 1/2% 45 min before the open. This as you know has meant absolutely nothing as the day sessions typically either give it back or give it back and more. Thats the nature of what we are dealing with now. No need to fight it or look at it in disbelief as it is what it is. The good news is the Fed is done for the Day. We had Fed Speak about 15 min ago and try as hard as he could the market did not tank. So for the rest of the day its behind us.
I got to thinking about the Fed’s actions and what would prompt them into raising rates which to any sane person seems like the opposite way to go. First its never obvious what needs to be done. Complexity is an understatement. But why would the fed seem so eager to talk every chance they get that gleefully they are going to raise rates? Even when the IMF as recently this week is begging them not to.
The only logical answer I could come up with is they feel its a way to dampen the bubbles without raising rates aggressively. And looking at what is going on it certainly has dampened the bubble in the stock market! But the entire thing wrong with “the logical answer” is rarely do you get deep thinkers in government. You get bureaucrats that are politically or ideologically motivated and also for the most part they are C thinkers at best. So my logical answer is probably way off the mark. Which brings us back to the why? I will get back to you on that:)
The markets are about as oversold as I have ever seen them. We are very much due of a good bounce. But as with anything it does not have to happen. But the odds are strongly in favor of a good bounce from here. The size and quality will tell a lot. In addition if per chance we got any hint of increased liquidity by the fed or any other country the bounce could be epic.
So lets watch another interesting day and see how everything unfolds. In the bright side I put on a swing trade short yesterday before the close and the stock is down over 10% as I write this. Very encouraging:)
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