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Markets gaping higher Friday, Zero-Sum politics, Updated political odds with several new odds

Markets gaping up from 1/5th to almost 1/2% this morning led by the Nasdaq. That is usually a good sign when the Nasdaq leads. TLT is -1.11% GLD +1/10th % Crude +1/2% Vix.x is off 1.4%

This is a positive pre-market configuration. Watch vix.x for chances of another trend day to the upside.

For those of you that are new to trading, this is what a bull market looks like:) They do not last forever, but the markets have everything going for it right now. Low-interest rates, Fed liquidity, Phase 1 of China trade deal, USMCA passing, Lowest unemployment across all classes in 50 years. And there is more:)

The only negative is politics. That is it. It is obvious the political system in the U.S. is badly broken. Its become a zero-sum game. Survival of the fittest. Anything goes. That is what U.S. politics has sunk to.

It’s gone from respectful opposition to destroy the opposition at all costs. The media has jumped onto this bandwagon for the left. And unfortunately, only 1 side is fighting this way. The Republicans gentlemen that they are, refuse to fight back.

I have always said, you let the other side set the rules, and then you play by them. What could be fairer than that? Trump plays by those rules. But very few Republicans have the courage to fight back.

An encouraging sign was Martha McSally yesterday tell a CNN reporter that she was not going to answer his questions because he was a hack:) Now this is what I would expect more of from the Republicans. If they all did this the party and the people would be better off.

But that is idealistic thinking. After all, they are members of the human race. I have always said to my subscribers over the years that your biggest opponent will be yourself. Human nature will sabotage you at every step. It is the same in politics.

You can see this with the upcoming trial in the Senate. Before hearing any part of either side of the case, 5 Republican Senators have announced they want to hear from more witnesses? Can you imagine?

Now each is motivated by different considerations. Romney is never Trumper. It matters not what the issue. He is going to be anti-Trump. Fairness and truth mean nothing to him. After all, he supports Antifa. McCowsky voted against Kavanaugh. That is all you need to know about her. Something is off with her. Collins, a do-gooder. Has no business being in the Senate. She is letting her personal opinions interfere with good sense. The other two, I imagine Never Trumpers.

So, even after the star chamber in the House, after the rules are clear the case is to be decided on the record in the House, you have 5 Senators that are going to be a fly in the ointment to what should be a speedy conclusion to this travesty. But it is what it is:)

Let’s look at the political odds as there are some new odds posted that are interesting:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 12/88 +1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
I took the 9/91 a few days ago. I laid it off yesterday at .10 for a 10% gain. After the Parnas news did not move the markets I decided it was time.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 -2 Pts (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, they will lose all 3)

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 72/28 -1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time.

Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 71/29 Republicans. -1 Pt

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 51/49 No Change
Warren: 5/85 – 1 Pt
Biden: 21/79 -1 Pts
Buttigieg 6/84 +1 Pts
Sanders 23/77 +2 Pts
Bloomberg 7/83 +1 Pt
Clinton 1/99 -1 Pt ( She is fading fast)

These are pretty meaningless right now the way the Democrats pick their candidate. Essentially, whoever the party leaders want the party leaders get. And they do not want Sanders. My guess is a brokered convention and a new name appears. I would say the odds are 50/50 that the Democrat nominee is not on the list of candidates right now.

Several new lines of interest:

Romney vote to convict: 24/76
Collins Vote to convict 14/86
Sasse Vote to convict: 9/91
Murkowski vote to convict: 18/82
Jones Vote to convict: 19/81
Manchin vote to convict: 36/64
Senate GOP vote to convict Trump: 0 is 62/38
1 is 16/84
2 is 10/90
3 is 5/95
4 is 5/95
5 or more 10/90

What is interesting is that the odds are that Romney is more likely then Jones to convict:) Also, Murkowski was higher than Romney yesterday

Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think. If the odds start getting close to 3 to 1 against conviction its time to start paying attention.

Rick

RickJs Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skye: riccja

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Markets gaping up 1/2% premarket, Naked put sales, Senate impeachment trial, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday morning

The markets are up almost 1/2 % premarket. TLT off 1/3% GLD off 1/5% Vix.x off 2.50%.

This is a positive premarket and I expect some follow-through this morning after the open.

One of the most amazing things is the Senate trial on impeachment begins next Tuesday and the markets have shrug it off paying no attention to it.

As I have said, I expect some drama in the Senate but an acquittal after the clown show is over. They do not have the votes in the Senate to convict. As someone put it yesterday, neither the facts and the law are on their side.

The market is about as overbought as I have seen in it. Any startling news at this point could give a sharp reaction to the downside. If by any quirk it starts looking like there is a chance at conviction in the Senate, the Markets would take a nosedive that would leave you either breathless or broke.

To be on the safe side, I would not be overinvested in this market right now. Remember we are dealing with politicians. They are not the most reliable to say the least.

Saying that I have a base portfolio that I am also using short term swing trades and in addition selling weekly puts for income. I do not recommend the 2nd approach unless you are a seasoned gambler. It is one of the more riskier things you can do in the market. You have to stay on top of these trades closely. But with adequate screening you can find some incredible trades with returns you would find hard to imagine.

In order to short puts, you need a margin account, and need to have substantial funds to weather the downside to these trades. When I say substantial, I mean at the very least 100,000 and ideally 500,000. The more the better.

The reason is you are only going to risk a very small % of your account on each trade.

Let’s take a look at the updated political odds this morning:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 11/89 +2 Pts (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
I took the 9/91 a few days ago. I can lay it off at .10 this morning. with a 10%+gain. I am going to hold off for another 10% right now. So will most likely lay it off at .11.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 92/8 +2 Pts (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, they will lose all 3)

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 73/27 +1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time. Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 72/28 Republicans. -1 Pt

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 51/49 No Change
Warren: 6/84 No Change
Biden: 22/78 -2 Pts
Buttigieg 5/85 -2 Pts
Sanders 21/79 No Change
Bloomberg 6/84 +1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 No Change

These are pretty meaningless right now the way the Democrats pick their candidate. Essentially, whoever the party leaders want the party leaders get. And they do not want Sanders. My guess is a brokered convention and a new name appears. I would say the odds are 50/50 that the Democrat nominee is not on the list of candidates right now.

Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think. If the odds start getting close to 3 to 1 against conviction its time to start paying attention.

Rick

RickJs Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skye: riccja

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Markets gaping up this morning, Murkowski, Updated political odds, two decent wagers. My thoughts for a Friday Morning

The Markets are gaping up this morning lead by the Nasdaq at .4%, @CL is +.10%, TLT unchanged, and vix.x off about 3/4%.

This is a slightly positive pre-market configuration. I do not anticipate much volatility until Congress gets back in earnest after the first of the year. Then I expect Chaos.

The market has discounted the impeachment fiasco as it expects little to no chance of it getting anywhere in the Senate. However, just yesterday Murkowski felt compelled to go on CNN of all places to criticize McConnell. My guess is that it is as far as it is going to go. But you never know with Republicans. They find a way to lose.

But so far the Republicans are holding strong in the Senate, with Murkowski being the only Republican Senator that is expressing her displeasure over McConnell and therefore sides with the likes of Schumer and Kristol. Not a pair I would want to be associated with in any lifetime.

But you could have seen this coming, as she was the sole vote in the Republican party against Kavanaugh. Her mask came off then, and now this just confirms she is being controlled by people that want to bring down this government.

I have heard people express the opinion that Collins and Romney are next. I hesitate to think that will be the situation. Collins is running in 2020 and it would be the end for her if she sides with Murkowski. Romney is not running for another 4 years, and no doubt he would love to stick it to Trump. But, he knows, that it is a fools errand at this point. I am betting he goes with McConnell. Unless he is dumber then I thought.

But make no mistake if we get a few more people in the Senate that side with Murkowski, this market is going to take a nosedive. Even the hint of a battle in the Senate is going to crash this market. I would watch Burr. He is the most likely to join Murkowski. He is not running again and has lead the Senate Intelligence Committee on a 2 year time and money-wasting endeavor. Knowing that the entire thing was a hoax from the start.

On the investing front, I am staying conservative until all this chaos is behind us. I have made money on this upswing but not near what I could have being conservative:) Right now I am concentrating on income trades,(covered calls and naked put selling), with a few short term swings.

Now onto the political odds:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 10/90 -1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 +4 Pts (Another one to watch) A new high

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago.

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 73/27 +3 Pts ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 72/28 Republicans. (+3 Pts) I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 48/52 +1 Pts ( A new High)
Warren: 6/84 -2 Pts
Biden: 23/77 +4 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 -2 Pts
Sanders 17/83 +2 Pts
Bloomberg 6/84 +1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 -4 Pts

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 39/61 -4 Pts I laid 38/62 ( My wager is right at where I bought into it. My plan to lay it off with a 20% quick gain is not working out so well)

I think the best wager right now is to take the 9 to 1 that Trump gets convicted in the Senate. Not that I think this will happen, but I expect at the very least some drama, which should give you an easy opportunity to buy the wager back at .20 doubling your money.

The only reason I have not done this is I cannot tell what happens if the House does not send the articles onto the Senate. If it is a push I would wager right now, If not I will wait until that happens. As that adds a variable that I do not want to be in the equation.

Another decent wager right now is betting against the Dems keeping the House. You can get over 2 to 1, which in my judgment is a nice overlay. A better wager might be to be against every incumbent in the House that voted for impeachment. My guess is when the lines come out you will have many of these wagers at plus odds. There will be close to 30 of them, and I would expect to win at least 60% of them.

These lines will come out after the primary. And I will have a write up on these shortly after. I plan on doing that.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Indexs slightly higher, Political dysfunction, Virginia militia, Updated political odds, and a new reasonable wager. My thoughts for a Tuesday Morning a

The Markets are not disappointing anyone right now, New highs daily. This is why they call this the best time of the year for the markets. Not even the chaos in DC can derail this market. Add the first phase of the China trade deal and USMCA to the picture and it creates an even bullish picture heading into 2020.

Record unemployment across every class of people in the U.S., Wages on the increase, Manufacturing returning, No recession in sight, everything is rosy in the U.S. right now on the economic front. But humans the creatures that they are, are unhappy. What would the turmoil be like if the U.S. was in a recession? Or unemployment was hitting 20%?

It’s a sad situation when politics is independent of the well being of the U.S. The better things are the more dysfunctional the U.S. political system becomes. So one has to ask why.

There are several reasons. Politics has become a 0 sum game. The people are mere pawns for the people playing the game. It is a power game, and anything goes. This was not the way it was supposed to end up. But here we are. The next reason is corruption on levels you cannot even begin to comprehend. The entrenched political class on both sides has been putting a screwing to the people for so long that they cannot afford a President like Trump that threatens their gravy train.

But, the times they are a changin. In Virginia, militias are being formed to confront the state government in their gun grab. This is no small thing. They are ready to fight. And my prediction is you will start seeing this spring up all over the country. On the other hand, Antifa will be in full swing, their handlers will set them and others loose to cause havoc. Soros and his groups are already planning impeachment demonstrations across the U.S.

They failed in the UK, and now the U.S. is their last chance to take down a free society. They fail here and they are finished. The problem is they may well not fail. Many Republicans think they can walk a fine line of getting rid of Trump and keeping the enemies of the U.S. at bay. They are making a big mistake on this one. People like the Never Trumpers, and lately Fiorina has made a big miscalculation. As if Trump goes down, the Republic goes down. There will be no place for any of them. Unless they are fine with a fascist state.

The irony of all of this is that the Horowitz report finally comes out, and it essentially shows there was no predicate for any of this to have started. The entire Special Counsel was premised upon a lie. The FISA warrants were obtained on a lie. There is direct proof the FBI falsified documents to obtain the FISA warrants. So Trump has been vindicated. Yet, the impeachment drum beats louder. All reason has evaporated at this point, it mob rule, no different then a lynch mob.

Part of the problem is there are no indictments. People are getting passes when the proper strategy is to hold everyone accountable. How many have lied under oath only to get a pass by the DOJ? This is exacerbating the problem. Sure Durham is in the wings. But by late spring there may be no country to recover from when he ultimately springs into action. (if he ever does).

It would be an entirely different picture if they indicted everyone that lied in front of Congress. Indicted every FBI agent that falsified records. But, so far, everyone gets a pass. Except for Flynn, Assange, and Stone of course.

So how does all of this relate to the stock market:) The message is, enjoy it while you can. As I still think the risks are great for a plunge as a result of the political dysfunction in the U.S. If the Senate waffles, you will see a drop you have never seen before in the markets. If the Dems take control of all three branches it is time to sell everything, including your real estate, and consider getting out of dodge. It will be that bad.

This is not the 60s. I live through the 60s. This is the end game between good and evil and it is not clear at this point which side is going to win. The useful idiots that make up much of the population have no idea what is in store down the road. Americans will finally feel the pain that other people from other countries have had to endure. America has been sheltered from this. But I few for not much longer.

That is my grim picture of things as we approach a new year. Am I some delusional type? Perhaps. I always factor into my thinking that I may have gone off the deep end. After all, we are all susceptible to that from time to time. But I think not. Time will tell:)

Lets take a look at the political odds as we head into the House vote on impeachment:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 92/8 +4 Pts (regardless of the rumors that they may not have the votes with 31 Dems running in Trump states, it looks like it is a real long shot that House does not impeach. Most likely will happen next week.)

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 95/5 +3 Pts ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 11/89 +2 Pts (This is the one to watch) Another new lost. There is virtually no chance of a conviction in the Senate.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 86/14 +1 Pt (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having a very slight edge in the odds. This has been narrowing for some time now.

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 70/30 ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 68/34 Republicans. I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 47/53 +1 Pts ( A new High)
Warren: 8/82 No Change
Biden: 18/82 -1 Pts
Buttigieg 9/81 No Change
Sanders 15/85 -1 Pts
Bloomberg 5/95 No Change
Clinton 6/94 No change

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 43/57 +1 Pts I laid 38/62 ( I have a very small gain right now after being underwater, I am sticking with the wager)

A good wager right now would be to take the 11/89 on conviction. Not because I expect a conviction, but because I expect some drama. The punters online will start betting this up where you should be able to lay it off at 100% profit pretty easily in the next few weeks. This looks like the best wager out there right now.

It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the end stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops just beginning. We have the bowl games, NFL playoffs also coming up.

In addition, the NBA first-half wagers have been on fire, something like a 6-0 run:) All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!

Good Luck Today:)

RickJ

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Indexes neutral, A Holiday present to America from the Scrooges in the House, Event risk in the markets, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday Morning

The Indexes are hovering around the 0 markets this morning and hour before the open. TLT likewise, Crude slightly higher and $Vix.X is +3.40%. This is a slightly negative premarket bias. Watch Vix and TLT for clues during the next hour and first 30 min after the open.

We are in the best time of the year, along with the best time during the best time of the year:) Seasonally it is a solid tailwind. The only scrooges around are the House Democrats. The Holiday present they plan on giving Americans is one big fat impeachment.

In a normal world, after the IG report came out, all impeachment proceedings in the House would have come to a screeching halt. Gears would have shifted to an investigation into the FBI and the CIA as to how this all became possible. An investigation into a Presidential campaign and a sitting President on a hoax. On lies. On Falsification of documents to perpetuate the hoax.

That is in a normal world. But the U.S. has long past being normal. The House does not miss a beat. It matters not that the Special Counsel was called on a hoax. It matters not that lives have been ruined, 40 million and counting of taxpayer dollars have been spent, that they have divided America into tribes at this point, that the media has become a propaganda machine. Nothing matters to the mob. They are no different then the old-time lynch mobs that stormed the jail to lynch an innocent man.

That is what politics has come down to. It’s not about Truth and Justice. Its the exact opposite. This has got to change for America to survive as a free country.

Amazingly the markets have blown this off as they know the House is a rogue entity that in no way represents America at this point. And that the U.S. Senate will quickly end this inquisition that took place in the House. I assure you if that were not a certainty, the market would be off 2000 points this morning. Instead, we are making new highs every week. The House has become an irrelevant entity, and they did it to themselves.

So, the question you have to ask as a trader is the event risk still present on the political front. The answer is of course. Lawfare will not stop with its lawsuits. The people that want to destroy what the U.S. stands for will not magically quit. So, as Bannon said, every day is going to be a battle. He was correct, and it will continue that way. So no event risk is still there.

But, that does not mean you should avoid the markets, it just means you have to pay attention to the risks. That does mean listening to Cable News:) It means listening to people that are honest brokers. Bartiromo would be a good start. Strassel from the WSJ another. There are honest investigative reporting being done. Just not from the people you historically went for information. They have become propagandists. Why? That is for another day.

Bartiromo is on every morning on Fox Business. It’s very early but it’s worth getting into the show from the very beginning. Strassel you can find on YouTube with her reporting, and her columns in the WSJ. You listen to those two and you are off to a good start every day.

I have on several swing trades right now. I will be looking to add a few more for the next 4 week season trend.

Let’s take a look at the political odds now:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 84/16 39 Pts

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 93/7 +14 Pts ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 12/88 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch) A new low

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 84/16 +4 Pts (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 45/52 + 1 Pts
Warren: 9/91 -1 Pts
Biden: 19/81 +5 Pt
Buttigieg 10/90 – 3 Pts
Sanders 15/85 +5 Pts
Bloomberg 6/94 – 2 Pts
Clinton 6/94 +2 Pt

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 44/56 +15 Pts I laid 38/62

The odds getting close to 2 to 1 he would be indicted, and now back to almost even money. I suspect this will drift higher. I have a profit right now but am looking for at least 20% before I think about laying this one off.

The odds of impeachment have skyrocketed. The IG report comes out proving the entire Russia investigation was a fraud, and the screams for blood get higher. This is a mob detached from reality. They care not about the guilt or innocence, they want blood. This is what mob behavior looks like. But as the odds of impeachment skyrocket, the risk of a conviction in the Senate makes new lows. In addition, the odds of indictments while not posted, in my judgment get higher every day.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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