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Pre Market comments for 10/21 and comments regarding Trump’s new venture into the media network business

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NFL Wk 6, Circa Picks, Week 5 and Season to date Recap, variance, comments on investing all posted

Week 5 in the NFL turned out hinging on Indy last Monday night. It was a cover so I went 3-2 in the Circa bringing my record there to 

16-9 or a 64% pace. That is not a bad place to be heading into week 6. Unfortunately this week was a nightmare week to handicap for me.

But it started out good as Phil was +7 in the 2nd contest I am in. Up until this weeks my picks were identical. But with Phil moving to +7 I now have a winner and stand at 18-8 or 69.2%!

My picks this week in the Circa are: 

Bears +4.5

Wash +6.5

Giants +9.5

New England +3.5

Tenn +6

In the other contest where you also pick 5 against the spread each week my picks are :

Phil +7 W

Giants +9.5

Tenn +5.5

NE +3.5

Raiders +3.5

Raiders looked much better then they do now, and they started looking worse before I placed my Circa picks. So, Wash and the Bears are two differences in the contests.

In the all spread contest I have been hugging the 50% line and sit at 40-40.

In the Westgate NFL Contest the top 5 had a good week going 3-1-1 getting them back to the break even market after a disastrous start.

The top 5 this week:

Cle

GB

Chargers

Dallas

KC

I am fading two of the picks in the Circa contest and two of the picks in the other contest. Right where I like to be:)

All things being equal you want to be on the fade side of the top 5 picks.

On the investing side of the service a great week last week. I had 3 short put sales that all easily cashed. These are trades I put

on Thursday morning with a Friday expiration.  The profit was a bit higher then usual because of AVDL 7.50 puts that an unusually high premium to sell. So a +850.00 2 day trade.

Then I have a medium term short put sale that cashed in HEAR for +600.00.

Short puts are an excellent way to pick up cash, but of course they have their risks also. I try to minimize those by my screening methods and limiting most of them to a Thursday trade with a next day expiration. Since posting these they have exceeded my best expectations.

I have almost 400 trades now and have a win rate of 94.5% and a profit factor of 3.75. The drawdowns have been minimal.

Also I received a question from a subscriber I would like to share.

No doubt it was prompted by the MLB season.

The question is essentially why is it you do much better on sports that have spreads rather the money lines?

The answer as I see it has to do with VARIANCE. For the 20+ years I have been posting my picks the variance on spread games has been about 20% of ML games.

You have to think as betting money lines as flipping a coin with a .10% edge. The odds are 50/50 and you have an edge, but the swings are going to be substantial as a result of variance. In addition, the public is not so transparent on ML games as they are on spread games. So the contrarian approach is not going to be as strong.

In some instances the “sharps” have removed most edges in ML sports. So you might ask, why wager on them? For me, I just need an edge, I am used to high variance having played limit poker for many years. I take it in stride. I can go through 4 racks and not be rattled. As long as the game is good and I am playing at my best I view variance as part of the endeavor.

A good friend was sitting next to me when I lost 4 racks in a very short time. Great hands that got dusted. And he asked “Isn’t it time to quit”? My reply was what is the difference between going through 100 big bets in 4 hours or 3 weeks? Variance is what it is. you are not going to eliminate it by picking an artificial stopping time.

The same applies to quitting when you quickly get in the lead. If you are flipping a coin with someone and getting 6/5 on a coin flip, would you quit because you had a big lead?  If so, gambling is not for you:)  The time to quit is when your opponent has had enough or runs out of money.

Saying that, not everyone is equipped to handle gambling that has a high variance to it. And that is something everyone has to decide for themselves. If you fall into that category you would want to stay away from ML sports. If you cannot take losing 30 units in stride save yourself some grief.

The issues of course are more complex then that, but this is a good start on a complicated question. I always welcome questions.

I have sent out 1 NFL play today to subscribers.

Its not too late to jump on board. We have plenty of NFL and College FB left. In addition, the NHL is in full swing and NBA regular season is almost here.

Just go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com and choose the monthly option on the paypal menu. That one has the most value, and every option has a 3 day free trial

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

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This mornings premarket comments. These are sent out each morning to subscribers

Pre Market comments sent out to subscribers this morning:

 

10/11
Indexes are lower this morning with DIA -.16% SPY -.37% QQQ -.69% and IWM -.14%

5:29

Although I am not quite certain about the IWM reading

5:30

Vix.x is +6.93%  @cl +2.53% and TLT -.25%

5:31

We have reached the point where crude, and TLT does not provide the guidance it typically does in premarket evaluations

5:31

For instance, crude being positive is typically good for the markets until it starts getting high, when overall it becomes a drag

5:32

Same is true for TLT,

5:32

We are almost there now

5:32

Not quite yet

5:32

But close enough to make a note of it

5:33

That shift typically occurs when policy creates uncertainty, and that is where we are at now. Uncertainty is probably a kind word:)

5:34

image.png

5:36

The 15 min EMA charts tell an interesting picture an hour before the open. We had a gap up in the VIX, Now a pullback to the 20 EMA with all indexes except NQ breaking out over the 20 EMA. The thing to watch is whether we get a gap fill on the vix and of course if we get a solid breakout to the downside of the vix and 20 day EMA

5:36

With NQ lagging, it is hard to imagine any kind of rally today

5:37

image.png

 

5:38

The 60 min EMA charts show the index breakouts to the upside in their infancy right now. While the vix has not touched the 20 ema. So they portend a much more cautious view if you are considering a long trade today.

5:40

If you are trading using these two charts what you want to use is first the 60 min chart. Then if warranted drop down to the 15 min for the entry signal. As long as the vix stays above the 20 ema on the 60 min chart you should be looking for short signals on the 15 min charts. And vice versa

5:41

There are additional things you can add to the charts, but why make them more complicated:)

5:41

For those that have been following these posts the correlation between the movement of the vix intraday and the markets is unmistakable

5:42

How you incorporate that into an intra day trading system is more complicated then it sounds

5:42

We can get into that another time

5:43

image.png

 

5:44

The QQQ/SPY chart is solidly in sell territory. Remember virtually all of the market gains in the past have occurred when this chart has been in buy mode. Otherwise, it has been sideways to down

5:45

That is quite a statement:) But feel free to look it up. Let me say it again. Historically virtually all of the market gains occurred when this chart was in buy mode!!!

5:45

So right now, as I see it this alone shows a headwind if you are trading long

5:46

image.png

 

5:47

The 3 mo vix is on the bounce and that is a good sign. Combined with the QQQ/SPY it tells me that we are looking at more of a sideways move rather than a breakdown. But this is a short-term evaluation. Not medium term, not long term

5:48

Last week our 3 short put sales were easy winners for a $220.00 gain. Not the $1000+ we were getting months ago, but still, I will take it

5:50

In addition, I picked up $225 on my M2kZ21 trade last week, and another $400+ on my overnight SPY trade

5:52

In the works we have HEAR puts that expire this week. That is looking like a590.00 gain as long as it can stay above the strike price of 27.00. It is trading premarket as I type at 30.12. So we have a 10% cushion on this one heading into expiration.

5:56

6:00 PM Fed’s Evans Speech

SeekingAlpha

Monday’s economic calendar 2:00 PM Fed’s Evans Speech

Monday's economic calendar 2:00 PM Fed's Evans Speech

5:56

That’s it, just a Fed head giving us his wisdom around 3:00 PST.

5:56

Again my view is this should not be allowed

5:57

They need to go back to the meetings, the announcement and the press conference after the conference and that is it

5:57

Especially in light of the insider trading that is going on at the Fed

5:58

The biggest problem I can see right now , aside from the multitude of others, is the vaccine mandate fallout

5:59

The eagerness of the media, and big companies to carry water for the government is astonishing and is taking its toll

6:00

Now you have pilots walking out, you have almost 200,000 military that are refusing to take the vaccine, thousands of hospital workers being fired or quitting because of the vaccine mandate.

6:01

So what does the government do? They triple down on the mandate ready to roll out vaccinating young children

6:03

In addition, the rhetoric out of DC keeps getting worse. It has become the government vs the citizenry.  Considering they are elected officials, that is quite a catch 22 for the citizens

6:03

One other concerning factor is the number of cargo ships that are not allowed to port in the US

6:03

My only question is why?

6:04

And at this point I do not have the answer, but the ramifications of this are going to be monumental if it continues. It will put the housing crisis look like nothing if they do not correct this

6:05

The only positive I see at the moment is the Fed monetary policy. They are actually increasing their asset buys.

6:05

They talk tightening while they provide much more liquidity

6:06

On the other hand, you have Yellen wanting to monitor all transactions of Americans over 600.00 and increase the budget of the IRS by at least double

6:06

Talk about a chilling effect on the economy when this is rolled out

6:07

As a trader right now all you can do is think about trading short term

6:07

long term trading is something that should be put to the side right now

6:08

That is my view, and of course many will disagree

6:08

And a caveat, things are never as bad as they appear

6:11

I hate to be so negative, but I just call it as I see it. And again, I have no undeveloped ego to massage, I have no particular ideology except perhaps as a traditional Libertarian, I dislike the establishment equally on both sides, and I seek apolitical journalism for my information sources.

6:14

If you are a thinking person, that is what you should strive for. If you ever make the transition from a media junkie to independent apolitical journalism, you will stare in disbelief all the garbage you are given 24/7 that is untrue.

6:16

If you are a trader, it is imperative to make that transition. You cannot effectively trade when your views are shaped by the media.

6:16

Of course it is easier said than done:)

6:17

Lets see what today brings.

6:17

good luck trading today

6:17

Rick

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

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NFL Week 5, Circa Picks, Week 4 and Season to Date Recap, Comments on investing section of the service all posted

Week 4 in the NFL behind us and I sit at 13-7 in the Circa NFL Contest after two 4-1 weeks!  Well positioned as I enter Week 5. Of course, with the large field you have to keep up a torrid pace to get in the money:)

For NFL plays this season I am 8-6 going 2-0 last week. So far today I have sent out two plays to subscribers. 

In the all spread contest where I pick every game against the spread I am faltering a bit. Usually I get close to 55%. But so far this season I am hovering around the 50% mark, 32-33-0.

Today in the Circa Contest my 5 picks are:

Phil +3

Jacksonville  +4.5

Houston +8.5

Giants +7

Indy +7

These are in no particular order. My subscribers get my thoughts on every game played in detail.

In the Westgate NFL Super contest the top 5 picks went 3-2 last week bringing their record to 9-11.

The top 5 this week is:

San Fran

Chargers

Buffalo

Tenn

Cincy

I am fading 1 of the top 5 this week. Typically I like to be fading 2 or more. Guess that will have to do:)

I have to say this week was not as easy for me as the first 4 weeks. Only a few games were clear to me. The rest not so clear.

I suspect this trend will continue as we move further into the season.

On the investing side of the service I had another great week last week despite the volatility in the markets. My short put sales went 3-0 with none getting close to the strike price. So another 3 winners added onto an over 95% win rate on these. I also had an overnight high % trade in SPY on Thursday for a quick 1%+ gain.

These short term setups come around every so often.

And then I had a system trade last week in futures using @M2Kz21.  It also was a nice winner.

If you have an interest in finding out more, just send me an email and I will go through everything with you.

Also as part of the investing side, I give an opening commentary before each trading day with my observations as to what to suspect.

The cost of the service is only 49.00 a month. You get a 3 day free trial, and have the option to quit anytime.  Unlike other services far less successful who charge thousands and lock you in for the entire season. It is one of the few values left in sports services at this point.

I have been providing this for 20 years now and most of my subscribers come from word of mouth. 

If you wish to subscribe go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com, click on the PayPal button and choose the monthly subscription.

There is an option for a yearly subscription. But I do not recommend it until you have been a subscriber for a few months. Betting sports is not for everyone. It has its ups and downs. Few can weather the variance let alone come up with +EV methods.

I do much better then most for far less the money. 

Good Luck Today

Rick J

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

 

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NFL Week 4 Circa Picks, Week 3 and Season to date recap, comments on the investing section all posted

Football is moving along and we are already on Week 4 in the NFL!

Last week in the Circa Contest I went 4-1 putting my record at 9-6. Also I had Jacksonville +7.5 on Thursday night so I have a jump on

this weekend

My NFL plays last week went 2-2 bringing me to 6-6 for the season on Sides.

Then in the all spread contest where I pick every game against the spread I ended the week at 25-23  but again has a win going into this weekend. All my all spread picks are sent out to subscribers only the day of the game. With my Road Map of every NFL game.

My 5 picks for the Circa contest this week are:

Jacksonville +7.5 (W)

Jets +7

Giants +7.5

Eagles +7

New England +6.5

They are in no particular order as look look pretty good to me.  I considered the +17 on Houston and would have used the game but the others look like better picks.

It is very hard to wager on double digit favorites in the NFL. Historically its a losing wager.

 

In the Westgate Supercontest last week the top 5 finally put in a winning day going 4-1. That brings its record to 6-9 for the Season.

 

The Westgate top 5 are:

TB

Sea

Bal

MIN

KC

I am not on any of the top 5 and am fading 2 of the. A good spot to be as far as I am concerned:)

The bottom 5 this week in the Westgate:

Jack

Cin

Hou

SF

Phil

Typically the Thursday night game , both sides show up in the bottom 5 as most of the contest players want to wait until the last second to put in their picks. It is no different this weekend as the Thursday night game is 1 and 2 on the bottom 5.

Today so far I have sent out no plays in the NFL, but  their are several games that look pretty good to me. I typically send them out about 30 min before game time. Much of  my handicapping is evaluating the line moves in relation to the public betting. I have been using this technique successfully for the last 20 years.

On the investing side of the service the markets have been taking a hit. My portfolio and short term trades are holding up very well. I managed to find a very high % trade Thursday night that was good for +1% in SPY in less then a day hold. My short put sale was a winner also on Thursday/Friday.

The investing side of this service is really one of the most overlooked parts. It has been a solid +EV money maker from day 1. And the good thing is the  drawdowns have been nominal.

If you have an interest in finding out more, just send me an email and I will go through everything with you.

Also as part of the investing side, I give an opening commentary before each trading day with my observations as to what to suspect.

The cost of the service is only 49.00 a month. You get a 3 day free trial, and have the option to quit anytime.  Unlike other services far less successful who charge thousands and lock you in for the entire season. It is one of the few values left in sports services at this point.

I have been providing this for 20 years now and most of my subscribers come from word of mouth. 

If you wish to subscribe go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com, click on the PayPal button and choose the monthly subscription.

There is an option for a yearly subscription. But I do not recommend it until you have been a subscriber for a few months. Betting sports is not for everyone. It has its ups and downs. Few can weather the variance let alone come up with +EV methods.

I do much better then most for far less the money. 

Good Luck Today

Rick J

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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