Investing - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Markets off over 2.5%, Short Put Trades Analysis, Flynn, Grenell, special elections, House pork bill, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Wedn morning.

The markets reversed to the downside on Tuesday and this morning we are going to get a sharp gap down of a bit over 2.5% in the SPY, DIA and QQQ while IWM is gaping down 4.5+%.

@CL is up 5% TLT +1% Vix.x is -20%

This has the makings of a panic move to the downside today. The only positive numbers you can glean from these is that TLT is not up bigger and Crude is positive. That may make a difference. But today is a day to be very careful entering the markets in the morning.

I have no swing trades on at the moment and am concentrating only on my short put sales that I make on Thursday with a 2-day expiration. I had my first losing week two weeks ago. Last week there was not much to choose from in my morning scans however I did find 1 trade that was an easy winner.

So far I have had 97 trades with a win rate of 89.69% and a profit factor of 5.62.  Now on the losing week two weeks ago two options were exercise which I sold the next Monday at a loss.

So gross gain after commissions on the short puts were $20,304.00. The two stocks I sold on Monday had a loss of 1764.50.  Adding the two up I have a net gain after commissions of $18539.50.

The profit factor with both is 4.01. Anything over 2.5 is exceptional.

The updated graph is above with the net results from the trades.

The one thing to note is the absence of much of a drawdown on these trades!

One thing I am doing differently now is I am sending these trades out via Slack.

You can get these trades along with any swing trades I make for free until baseball season starts. Right now that is shaping up to be around 7/1. At that time I will be activating all subscriptions that are on pause.

To get these trades for free until then all you need to do is :

  1. Go to my website: rickjshandicappingpicks.com
  2. Use the PayPal dropdown menu and sign up for the monthly subscription
  3. These all come with a 3-day free trial
  4. I will immediately suspend your subscription so you do not get charged
  5. I will then send you an invitation to join my slack channel where I send the trades.

In addition, you are free to ask any questions on slack at any time on any subject.

As far as the geopolitical landscape since I last posted its been more of the same. Some of the highlights have been,

  1. The DOJ has moved to dismiss all charges against Gen.Flynn. But in an unprecedented move, the Judge is allowing Amicus Curiae briefs by outside parties. This is not only unprecedented but contrary to the Federal rule of criminal procedure.

How this turns out will be at least more delays, with an appeal if the judge jumps the shark on this. I do not expect that, however in this charged political environment who knows with any certainty.

2. Grenell has released transcripts that have shown the Russian proceedings were a hoax from day 1. The news is more is coming regarding the unmasking and other subjects.

The Obamagate conspirators have been caught and we will see if there is accountability. Durham reported is ready to drop the hammer soon.

 

3. In two special elections yesterday for the House congressional seat a Republican has won Wisconsin and leads by 12 pts in Ca 25. That is an ominous sign for the Democrats in November. At this point logically I see no way they keep the House.  I have already taken 4 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House, and plan on fading each one of the dirty 30 once lines are out.

4. The House has proposed a 3rd three trillion-dollar stimulus bill that should be dead in the water in the Senate. In normal times not 1 item would be approved by the Senate or the President. It is filled with pork and ideological liberal wishlists. In other words a complete waste of time. I suspect that is the reason we are seeing the sell off this morning.

Leave it to Congress to cause as much damage as humanly possible on the American people.

Now let’s look at the political odds:

 

Dem Nominee:

Biden 80/20  -2 Pts
Sanders  2/82  +2 Pts
Clinton 7/93  +2 Pts
Cuomo 3/97  No Change

Looks about right. I still have some doubts Biden is going to be the nominee:) Make no mistake the Dems still can choose whoever they want.

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 37/63   +8 Pts
Klobuchar 18/82 -4 Pts
Abrams 8/92  +2 Pts
Warren 13/87  No Change
Masto 8/92   No Change
Whitmer: 7/83 -1 Pts

I have no opinion on who is going to get the VP nod. Although I see no one on the list that can help Biden.

Presidential winner:

Trump 49/51 No Change I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55
Biden 44/56  -1  Pts

Clinton 5/95  +5 Pts

 

Getting back close to even money right now.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 53/47 +3 Pts

Again I believe the value is on the Republicans

Control of the House:

78/22 Democrats: No change( I took 3 to 1)

I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

51/49 in favor of the Republicans -7 Pts

I actually think the Republicans could lose the Senate. Collins has self-destructed, although they will pick up Alabama. But in Georgia establishment, Republicans are making the same mistake they made in Alabama in 2018. Loeffler is damaged goods with insider trading. Collins, however, is a cinch if he gets the nomination. But the establishment is pulling out all stops to defeat him in the primary.

Add that to some of the policy-making decisions of the Republican Senate and they are not very popular. They only have a 3 person advantage in the Senate. So, I view the Senate race right now as a tossup, only because the establishment Republicans are making bad decisions.

I would still bet on the Republicans but the much better wager is taking the odds in the House for value.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 95/5+5 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is all going to depend on the reporting numbers as its a very technical definition.

The best wager of the year will be fading the dirty 30 in the House. They are all incumbents, and all will most likely be +odds. So you only need to go 50% to make money. I cannot imagine not hitting 60%+ on these.

That’s it for today,

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype:riccja

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Stock markets stabilizing for now, A new trading technique with a 90% win rate, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Saturday Morning

The stock market has stabilized but it still remains to be seen what surprises are ahead before the November elections. First, we had Russia, Russia, Russia which roiled the markets. Then we had each leak during the investigation that generated wild swings in the markets. Then after that had past and was not only debunked but criminal prosecutions are coming, we get the Ukraine inquiry.

This was as sinister as the Russia hoax as it involved not only Schiff meeting with the “Whistleblower” to set this entire sham up, but it was coordinated with Atkinson to allow hearsay information for the first time. So now we get more turmoil in the markets, with a full-blown impeachment probe in the House and impeachment.

Then onto the Senate, where all seemed an easy acquittal. But at the last second a leak from the NYT (which turned out to be false) involving a Bolton transcript. And the markets reacted violently. You even had Collins wanting to call Bolton, and Romney voting to convict. But when the smoke cleared Trump was acquitted.

So now the coast is clear it seems, and what is next…the Corona Virus. How convenient for the left. Something else to politicize. From the cause to the cure everything has been politicized. More 24/7 propaganda to work with and it has tanked the markets in the quickest drop in history.

But the Fed responded, Congress responded (except doubling the amount needed with the pork they added) and now the economy is primed to recover in record time once the smoke clears. The wind will be at the markets back in another 30 days. Trump will be pulling out all stops to get people back to work. And if anyone knows how to do it he does.

So, does that mean it’s now safe to get back into the markets? That the volatility is going to diminish? I do not think so. As if there is anything we have learned it is almost a certainty that something new is going to hit.

You have to understand that the left and also the establishment republicans cannot afford to have Trump in office another 4 years. The prosecutions are going to begin soon and their only hope is to get Trump out and bury all of this.

So, this is life or death for many of them. Rest assure the battle is far from over. Which means for the markets, the turmoil is far from over.

So what do you do as an investor? A lot of my friends have gone busted trading. Most approached as a gambler would. I warned them they need to adjust. But, they did not take heed. Myself, I have taken a hit with my base portfolio, but a small one. I have quit the medium term swing trades for now. And day trading is too time-intensive for me to take on.

But now that sports is on hold, my handicapping is on pause. So that has given me more time to research other avenues to produce income in the markets.

Low and behold, I have come up with a method to produce trades that so far has produced 90.8% winners with a profit factor of 8.29. To get that into perspective. If you can come up with a trading system with a profit factor of 2.5 you have something to work with. So far I have had 87 trades with a 79-8 record. I am on a 29-1 run on my last 30 trades:)

One of the good things about this aside from the win rate and profit factor is the drawdowns are next to nothing.

Now we only have 87 real-time samples. When we get up to 1000 the reliability will be much greater. But so far it is tradable and the risk is minimal.

I give all my trades to my subscribers who now are on pause. So they are free. I was sending them out on Viber but now I am using slack as it allows me to send out one message rather than individual messages to members.

If you want information about these trades just send me an email to [email protected] I will be happy to answer any questions.

If you want the trades go to the website and subscribe to the monthly option on PayPal. This has a 3-day free trial. But as soon as you sign up I will put your subscription on pause. My intention now is not to activate these until the sports service is back up. Which for now it will depend on when MLB begins.

Right now that is up in the air. They are throwing around ideas at this point with sometime in May or early June. I will keep you up to date as things firm up.

Now, let me comment on one other thing. I have touched upon it over the years but it bears repeating. My politics is neither Democrat or Republican. I am as independent a person as you will find. I am issue-based. I analyze politics the way I analyze the markets and handicap sporting events.

Unlike most, I am not handicapped by any dogmatic ideology. As an example right now I have as much disdain for establishment republicans as I do for many on the left. But for me, at this point in time, looking at the facts it is apparent that establishment republicans are the lesser of the two evils if you have to make a choice.

Now, that is the conclusion I have come to. I do not expect everyone to agree with me:) And I have to say most in my family and many of my relatives do not. So we do not talk about politics. But I have always been an independent thinker not swayed by the media. I have my investigative journalists I rely on for the facts. Each one is of the highest integrity, they are truth-tellers, and they are not ideologues.

I mention this because I have lost some long time subscribers because of my posts. Just as recently as last week I received an email from a long time subscriber essentially telling me to fuck off because I happen to think President Trump is fine for America.

When you have reached that point, its time to step back and reassess what is driving you. Irrational hate for a person only damages you, it stresses every part of your body. It is fine to disagree on policy but the media has driven much of the population into crazed lunacy. That is what you want to try to avoid. It is not easy. I know, I have been there:)  But you owe it to yourself to figure it out. The only person you hurt is yourself.

I am not going to get into President Trump in this post but will save it for another day. But let’s move onto an update on the political odds:

Updated Political Odds:

 

Dem Nominee:

Biden 82/18  No Change
Sanders  Off the board
Clinton 5/95  +1 Pt
Cuomo 3/97  – 3 Pts

Looks about right. I still have some doubts Biden is going to be the nominee:) Make no mistake the Dems still can choose whoever they want.

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 29/71   -3 Pts
Klobuchar 22/73 -3 Pts
Abrams 6/94 -3 Pt
Warren 13/87  No Change
Masto 8/92  +3 Pts
Whitmer: 8/92 -5 Pts

I have no opinion on who is going to get the VP nod. I think it is really up in the air at this point.

Presidential winner:

Trump 49/51 – 3 Pts  I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55
Biden 45/55  +2  Pts

Getting back close to even money right now.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 50/50 No Change

Again I believe the value is in the Republicans

Control of the House:

78/22 Democrats: +4 Pts( I took 3 to 1)

I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

58/42 in favor of the Republicans -2 Pts

I actually think the Republicans could lose the Senate. Collins has self-destructed, although they will pick up Alabama. But in Georgia establishment, Republicans are making the same mistake they made in Alabama in 2018. Loeffler is damaged goods with insider trading. Collins, however, is a cinch if he gets the nomination. But the establishment is pulling out all stops to defeat him in the primary.

Add that to some of the policy-making decisions of the Republican Senate and they are not very popular. They only have a 3 person advantage in the Senate. So, I view the Senate race right now as a tossup, only because the establishment Republicans are making bad decisions.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 91/9 +3 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is all going to depend on the reporting numbers as its a very technical definition.

The best wager of the year will be fading the dirty 30 in the House. They are all incumbents, and all will most likely be +odds. So you only need to go 50% to make money. I cannot imagine not hitting 60%+ on these.

That’s it for today,

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype:riccja

 

 

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Market resting on Monday, the politics of death, a new trading method to share, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Monday Morning

The markets have had a nice rebound from the bottom hitting the 50% retracement area on Friday. It is due for a breather as the rebound as been almost a straight line to the upside.

A massive stimulus is being interjected into the financial system by the Fed and the President has gotten his wish. Interest rates are now down to 0. This has helped but the key at this point is the White House’s decision as to Americans returning to work. The longer they wait the higher the risk.

You would think this would be a rather easy decision to make. However, everything about this virus has been politicized at this point. So everyone involved is pushing their own agenda. The actual facts mean nothing at this point to many of them.

You can see this in the way they report the cause of death, the demand on the hospitals, the death rate, and even potential treatments. All subject to politics.

One thing is certain, no matter what decision the President makes his opponents are going to quickly say it was the wrong one. That you can bet on.

When it gets to the point where promising drug treatments are demonized because the President suggests they may work, then you know something is terribly wrong.

At this point, the evidence is overwhelming that Hydrochloroquine, Azithromycin , and Zinc 220 can save lives if given early. But, the media has all but said these were dangerous, some Democrat governors have restricted their use so that a doctor cannot prescribe this in an outpatient setting. Why? Because President Trump suggested these drugs may work.

Lives are now being lost because of politics.

For investing I have been doing very little. The swings are just too large right now to do any kind of swing trading. Day trading requires intense concentration behind the computer screen for long hours. I do not have the motivation right now to do that.

However, since Sports betting has dried up, I started doing some research on profitable option trade setups. As it turns out I have come up with an options trading strategy that has worked with almost no drawdown since I implemented it in real-time.

So far I have had 73 trades.  65 winners and 8 losers. A win rate of 89.04%. A profit factor of 7.33

Just to get a perspective a profit factor of over 2.0% is a viable system.

This is the graph of the trades. As you can see almost no drawdown:)  Now, once we get to the 1000 trade mark this will mean a bit more then it does now. But so far so good.

I send my trades out to everyone that subscribes to my sports service that wishes them. it is part of the service. Right now all my subscriptions are on pause and will be taken off pause once sports starts up again. But in the meantime, if you are a subscriber, you get these trades. If you were to subscribe now, your subscription would be paused immediately, and you would get these at no cost.

If you have any questions regarding these, you can send me an email ([email protected]) and I will be happy to answer any questions.

To sign up:

  1. go to web site and pick the monthly option under the Paypal dropdown menu (they all have a 3 day free trial)
  2. I will immediately pause your subscription so the free trial starts when it is reopened
  3. I will then give you the details on how to get the trades. Right now they are sent out via VIBER.

Its been awhile so lets take a look at the political odds:

 

Dem Nominee:

Biden 82/18  +5 Pts
Sanders 1/99 -5 Pts
Clinton 4/96  No Change
Cuomo 6/94  No Change

Looks about right. I still have some doubts Biden is going to be the nominee:)

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 32/68   +3 Pts
Klobuchar 25/75  -2 Pts
Abrams 6/94 -3 Pt
Warren 8/92  +1 Pt
Masto 5/95  -10 Pts
Whitmer: 13/67 +7 Pts

Again, I have no opinion on who might get the VP nod.

Presidential winner:

Trump 52/43 + 3 Pts  I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55
Biden 43/57   +2  Pts

Trump pulling back ahead as he should be right now.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 50/50 -3 Pts

Again I believe the value is in the Republicans

Control of the House:

74/26 Democrats: +4 Pts( I took 3 to 1)

I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

60/40 in favor of the Republicans -1 Pts

Republicans back on the move here.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 88/12 +3 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1

Then numbers I see this weekend still to me make it close whether the U.S. will fall into a recession. Getting 4 to 1 gives me a nice cushion on the wager.

One wager I am watching for is Collins vs Loeffler. I want to get down on Collins. I liked him before Loeffler imploded with her stock trades, but now the price might be too high. Anything close to even money would be a gift.

There are some other interesting new entrants on the political wager board. I will go over these in a future post.

That’s it for today,

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype:riccja

 

 

 

 

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Markets dropping, Short put trades, Hydroxychoroquine links, media weakens immune system, updated political odds , My thoughts for a Friday

A monster rally the last few days but this morning the markets are gapping down almost 3%. This is normal, and now we will see if the last few days was a bull rally in a bear market or not.

Eyes are on the House, and of course, it’s going to be a bumpy road. A voice vote which they planned on doing was so much in doubt that members are flying into DC this morning to get enough votes to pass the bill.

Our system is broken beyond repair at this point. You could do away with the legislative branch, stick with the executive branch, judiciary and the states and have a better run government at this point.

I think a lot of this early drop in the markets is reflective of the uncertainty of what is occurring in the House. Right now you can get 4 to 1 that the bill does not pass today. I think for a long shot it would not be a bad wager. You cannot even consider laying the 4 to 1.

Yesterday I placed 5 short put trades, all 5 expire today and all 5 have enough protection it would take a much larger downdraft to have to adjust any of these. All of the trades had a 30% downside protection. All had an annualized return of over 200%.

I will be looking this morning for a few more trades. With the markets gaping down like this, I might be able to find several more decent short put sales that expire at the close today.

I am sending these out to all of my sports handicapping subscribers. In as much as their subscriptions are on hold, everyone is getting them for free that wants them. If you have an interest just send me an email and I will tell you how to get them, [email protected]

One of the most concerning things that has come up lately is a few Democrat Governors signing emergency orders precluding Hydroxychoroquine to be prescribed for coronavirus treatment, off label?

This flys in the face of overwhelming evidence that this in combination with Azithromycin is the treatment of first choice at this time for treatment of coronavirus:

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-as-a-treatment-of-covid-19/

https://www.stabroeknews.com/2020/03/21/news/guyana/new-gpc-touts-anti-malaria-drug-as-treatment-for-coronavirus/

https://pagesix.com/2020/03/22/daniel-dae-kim-anti-malarial-drug-secret-weapon-in-my-coronavirus-recovery/
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/23/indonesia-produces-chloroquine-anti-malaria-drug-tested-as-possible-treatment-for-covid-19.html

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/12/South-Korea-experts-recommend-anti-HIV-anti-malaria-drugs-for-COVID-19/6961584012321/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/australian-researchers-claim-to-have-found-two-drugs-to-fight-coronavirus/articleshow/74660999.cms

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/mar/18/delhi-doctor-using-anti-hiv-drug-combo-for-high-risk-covid-19-patients-2118391.html

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/18/bayer-is-donating-its-malaria-drug-that-could-help.aspx

So, there MAY be an effective treatment for coronavirus after all, according three studies

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/16/new-academic-study-reveals-counter-anti-malaria-pill-chloroquine-may-highly-effective-treating-coronavirus/

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2020/03/18/Sanofi-says-anti-malarial-medication-promising-on-coronavirus-patients

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2020/03/26/Bahrain-one-of-the-first-countries-to-use-Hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-coronavirus

When this is said and done, these Governors should be prosecuted for negligent homicide. This is unacceptable to interfere with doctors’ ability to prescribe off label medications.

In addition to all the whining from these governors about the overcrowding of hospitals, what better way to alleviate this problem than the use of drugs that have been shown to have worked. The only thing missing is a large scientific double-blind study. But consider the time and also the low risk of these drugs it is a no brainer.

My suggestion also is to take Zinc every day. It has been proven to boost the immune system. I am taking 30 MG daily. Again a no-risk method, that may have some benefit. Keeping your immune system strong is very important.

This leads me to the next topic the media-induced hysteria. This has caused untold stress among the population. And as stress increases the immune system becomes weakened. In reality, the Fake news media is harming the immune systems of an entire nation when it needs a strong immune system the most. My thought is that it should be a crime to disseminate false information about the conditions on the ground by the media. Penalties should be a minimum of 10 years in prison.

That would stop this, and force journalist to double-check their sources. And if it’s made up, like much is, they are toast.

Markets are opening soon so let’s get to the political odds then I have to go:

Dem Nominee:

Biden 77/23 – 7 Pts (dropping fast)
Sanders 6/94 +2 Pts
Clinton 4/96 -1 Pt
Cuomo 6/94 +1 Pt

Biden is dropping. I told a friend that getting over 4 to 1 looked good a few days ago, and now we are down to 7 to 2. I still think fading Biden has some value.

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 29/71 No Change
Klobuchar 27/73 No Change
Abrams 9/91 -3 Pt
Warren 7/93 -2 Pt
Masto 15/85 New Entrant
Whitmer: 8/92 +3 Pts

I do not have any opinion at all on these. Harris, however, would be a mistake. Biden already has California. It would be a waste of a VP pick. Also when a new name pops on the list, you should pay attention.

Presidential winner:

Trump 49/51 + 2 Pt ( Right where I made my wager on Trump)
Biden 41/59 – 3 Pts

Trump pulling back ahead as he should be right now.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 50/50 -3 Pts

Again I believe the value is in the Republicans

Control of the House:

70/30 Democrats: -5 Pts( I took 3 to 1)

I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

61/39 in favor of the Republicans + 6 Pts

Republicans back on the move here.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 85/15 +1 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1

Then numbers I see this weekend still to me make it close whether the U.S. will fall into a recession. Getting 4 to 1 gives me a nice cushion on the wager.

One wager I am watching for is Collins vs Loeffler. I want to get down on Collins. I liked him before Loeffler imploded with her stock trades, but now the price might be too high. Anything close to even money would be a gift.

A new one I am watching that just popped up:

When will the House pass the CARES Act:

March 27th 84/16 +74 Pts

Getting over 4 to 1 seems reasonable. But the value is slim.

That’s it for today, Let’s see if this rally can continue tomorrow.

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype:riccja

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Monster Stock Rally, Coronavirus fears, media induced panic, A real experts thoughts, Updated political odds. My thoughts for Wednesday

The Stock Market is blasting off today with the indexes up somewhere between 7 and 8 percent. They liked The President’s messaging, The Feds response, and the likelihood the Congress is going to finally pass some kind of bill.

That will be an influx of money into the country unseen before. In addition, the Treatment the President has been talking about for over a week is working in many different countries. So much so, both drugs are being mass-produced and should be available shortly.

The only thing that has not changed is the media. But that will never change. I just do not listen to them. A friend called me up to tell me what he heard on CNN this morning, and I politely told him I had no interest in anything cable news outlets had to say. And that includes most of the people at Fox.

Hysteria generated fear is going to be here to stay. The last thing they want is for Trump to get this country moving again. They know it’s their last hope at beating him in November. The media has been hijacked, it has ceased being the media.

As far as this rally, my thought is the downside is still a big risk. This euphoria we are seeing most likely will not last for more then a few days if that. But I think we may have seen the worst of the slide. We will see.

The new CDC numbers are out:

Deaths as of today: 544

This is nothing. It’s not even worth talking about. But do not take my word for it. I just listened to an interview with one of the leading Microbiologists in the world:

https://youtu.be/JBB9bA-gXL4

It’s worth your time to listen to it, as it gives a clear-eyed view of the coronavirus. This is what you should be listening to, not cable news pundits.

Essentially he says the biggest tragedy is the way the countries are dealing with it rather than the virus itself. But he gives his logic and some very good insight.

Now, I cannot say this enough, the hysteria surrounding this is media-induced. They have an agenda. Truth is the furthest thing in their mind. As an example, one of the big stories yesterday is that a lady died yesterday taking the drug that President Trump had recommended at home.

But with just a little investigation it turns out what she took was an aquarium cleaner. Now, the press knew that was true, but they tried to go with the story anyway. I do not think I have ever seen it this bad.

Another example is when the President suggested it the press all in unison said how crazy he was, but, Cuomo in NY start trials using the exact same drug Trump had suggested. The press: How great Cuomo was for trying this.

Now I do not care whether you are a Republican or a Democrat.I could care less who you support for President. But the media in this country is reprehensible. And if you support what they are doing, you have gone off the deep end. That is what I call a given:)

Back to the markets, I have not made any new trades, but Thursday is rapidly approaching. I plan on putting on my 5 or 6 short put sales on Thursday. I have had quite a few people sign up. If you have not, just look back to the last post and it explains how you can get these.

Lastly the update on the political odds:

Dem Nominee:

Biden 84/16 – 3 Pts
Sanders 4/96 +1 Pts
Clinton 5/95 Unchanged
Cuomo 5/95 New entry

Nothing has changed. Cuomo is on the radar now. Will be interesting to see how they pull that one off:)

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 29/71 – 1 Pt
Klobuchar 27/73 -1 Pts
Abrams 12/88 -1 Pt
Warren 9/91 -1 Pt
Whitmer: 5/95 New entrant

I do not have any opinion at all on these. Harris, however, would be a mistake. Biden already has California. It would be a waste of a VP pick. Also when a new name pops on the list, you should pay attention.

Presidential winner:

Trump 47/53 + 1 Pt ( Right where I made my wager on Trump)
Biden 44/56 – 3 Pts

Right now a tossup. I like Trump at a tossup.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 54/46 -1 Pt

Again I believe the value is in the Republicans

Control of the House:

75/25 Democrats: No Change ( I took the 3 to 1 this morning)

I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

55/45 in favor of the Republicans No Change

That is a large drop in this category. I still am laying off this wager. The Senate Republicans seem to be trying to lose. Collins, Graham are both taking positions that could cost them in November. But the line is getting to an area that is attractive.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 84/16 – 4 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1

Then numbers I see this weekend still to me make it close whether the U.S. will fall into a recession. Getting 4 to 1 gives me a nice cushion on the wager.

One wager I am watching for is Collins vs Loeffler. I want to get down on Collins. I liked him before Loeffler imploded with her stock trades, but now the price might be too high. Anything close to even money would be a gift.

A new one I am watching that just popped up:

When will the Senate pass the CARES Act:

March 24th 31/69
March 25th 56/44
March 26th 15/85
March 27th 10/90
After: 9/91

I have not been following it that close, but if I had to choose without knowing anything I would take 9 to 1 on March 27th. Just because typically they drag it out as long as they possibly can. I doubt they will let it go into next week

That’s it for today, Let’s see if this rally can continue tomorrow.

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype:riccja

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