MLB Overnights for 5/16, Premarket comments , HOA Dysfunction

Below are the Overnight Sides I sent out to subscribers :

953PIT J JONES -R123
954 J STEELE -L
961OAK J ESTES -R180
962 C JAVIER -R

I send the Overnight sides out via email, discord and slack usually around midnight. Sometimes earlier. With the change in databases the updated stats I use to detect EV in the opening numbers is not as early as the previous database I had been using. In addition, the times are not consistent. That results in having to get up around midnight and send these out.

So far we are hovering around even this season with the new database. My thoughts are at this point that when the smoke clears, we will end up around +10 to 15 units on these. The key is the numbers I put out showing that we are beating the closing line well over 60% of time by an average of .04.  Not as good as previous years, but as long as this is positive the expectation is the net result will be positive at the end of the season.

Along with my plays during the year I also post market commentary on my other discord Channel RickJInvest

This is free to the sports side subscribers who also have an interest in trading. Not only do I post many of my trades, but also on some days my thoughts prior to the market open.

Here is what I posted this morning:

When they say strange things happen in the markets during presidential election years, they are understating it:)
We have gone from high inflation , raising rates, to no inflation and now rates will be heading down by the Fed soon, and the 10 year note is falling like a rock:)
The CPI number was below expectations yesterday, so now on a dime everything is fine!
See how that goes, its may and in 6 months elections roll around that will shape the course of this country
And as importantly will shape policy of countries around the world
If you think for a 2nd that monetary policy is independent and divorced from this process I have a bridge to sell you:)
The only thing that surprises me is that it took as long as it has for the narrative to shift. They really cut it close this time around.
Am I a cynic, perhaps, am I delusional , most likely not, but I will say this I am right more often then I am wrong. That is all one can hope to accomplish in all decision making endeavors.
So the chart of TNX tells a pretty story if your looking to buy a home or for that matter sell a home. Which as it turns out is me:)

I have never encountered the difficulty I have been having this time around in my many real estate endeavors.
The lessons to be learned are this: 1. Never ever buy into a 55+ community 2. Never buy into a new development. The problem is the developer keeps control of everything for a very long time to their advantage. The control the board, they control property management and they control all the vendors.
And even when you have transition they still control select board members who have bought into their agenda, and property management remains in their pocket.
Now this can be a good thing or a bad thing. Or sometime neutral. As sometimes homeowners and the developers interests are the same. But more often the conflict. And when they do, guess who wins out, the developer. They control almost every aspect of the community.
The board members that relate to the developer, and help them even after transition are doing it either because of “the Stockholm syndrome, or out of the misguided thought they are doing the right thing. Or perhaps other reasons. But if things turn sideways, the homeowners can be in a very bad spot.
So rather then take that chance, buy into an established community with a track record of fairness to homeowners. Otherwise you are in for some sleep less nights.

I will be writing a book on this subject once I move out of the community I am in and sell my home here. The community on its surface looks like a retirement haven:) But, underneath you have dysfunction on top of dysfunction. A mini animal farm:)
Since it is a rather small community you have residents who tend to fall into two groups. And they fight each other often. The stories I have to tell are comical and tragic. But in the end since I never take life too seriously the book and hopefully the screen play will be very entertaining.
As am example I received a notice to appear before the board. That was it. Of course the bylaws and law require specificity with notices like that. This is not a totalitarian system, where at their whim a board can demand a resident to just show up.

The issue of the day had been a long drawn out fight on the issue of spraying synthetic herbicides and pesticides in a 55+ community. Another homeowner and myself lead the discussion on this issue by writing a series of 7 communications to the board, all respectful, informative, annotated with the position that it was not the right way to go in a 55+ community. You can see our emails in RickJSports as a guide for those in a similar situation.
As a former trial attorney I am well trained both in researching these types of issues and presenting compelling arguments.
I have tried as the lead trial attorney cases ranging from Federal mail fraud cases, murder cases, complex products liability and complex medical negligence cases in front of a jury.
So this issue was a simple one, as the trend is around the world to go with safer alternatives. It is one that in front of a reasonable thinking audience we would have persuaded them. But not this time:)
To shorten this up, the end result is I am moving out in 7 to 10 days, and paying an extra 4000 a month just to be out of here until my home sells. And I will end up taking a loss for one of the first times in my life on the sale of this home.

What happened to me is an outlier in the standpoint of the extreme reaction our emails got from the board. No logic can explain the reaction, but one day when the smoke clears here and I am free to discuss everything. I will start my book. As I know what the reasons are and what is occurring in the powers to be in this community.
At least for a few of them.
Do back to the chart:)
I celebrate this as this means to me and many others that the process of selling and buying a home will be a bit easier , at least until November. After November all bets are off.

 

Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning!
FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile.
This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)

Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning!
FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile.
This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)

 

 

As most of you know who have been following me from my sports handicapping side, I tend to be a contrarian.
What could be more contrarian then to fade the public who are sticking their money now into money market funds
Eventually this money will find its way into the markets, but if history is a guide it will be close to the top:)

I usually do not digress into personal areas, but, in this case it is illustrative of how the rate changes can effect real life situations. And for some might give some guidance on how HOA living can go sideways if you do not do your homework:)

All this and more is free until the beginning of football season. Then we are back to subscribers only. If you want to take advantage of this free offer, just email me at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com and I will get you on the email list, and discord channels.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

MLB overnights for 5/12 and comments

A 2-3 day yesterday and we find ourselves right at the breakeven mark heading into the middle of May. Top to bottom swing has only been around 10 units.

We are beating the closing line at a rate of 46-28-3 which is 62% of the time.  The difference over the 77 wagers is around .04.   A little low historically, but I am using

a new database this season. The company I was using went out of business after many years:)

But this one has been around and solid a very long time.

Overnight picks for 5/12 games are :

959 W BUEHLER -R
960SDG Y DARVISH -R115
961 B ELDER -R
962NYM L SEVERINO -R110
965 J VERLANDER -R
966DET J FLAHERTY -R101
971 S LUGO -R
972LAA P SANDOVAL -L117

Remember RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is now a free service until the beginning of NCAA FB. All subscribers monthly payments have been paused and you will pick up right where you left off when I switched to a free service.

The reason for this is 1. I am using a new database 2. I have a number of personal items on my plate, of which selling and buying another home is top on my priority list. You do not know the amount of effort this takes until you get into the actual process. I have been doing it my entire life, and still I have found no way to make it an easy process.

I lived 18 years peacefully in the last community I was in here in Las Vegas, but as I tend to do when property values dramatically increase, I take my profit. In the last sale it was $650,000 profit of which 500,000 was tax free!  But after 2 years in the community I am in now, it is clear it is not a good fit for us. So for the first time ever I am going to take a loss on this one.

I will write more on the process of buying and selling homes on my discord channel, sharing with you some of the rules to go by and should never be broken, unless you are into pain:)

So, in fairness to subscribers, in the past I have had handicapping my top priority. Once this chaos is over, which should be before the start of college football, it will be back to #1. with trading a close 2nd.

As a subscriber you get all plays sent out via email, and also access to my two discord channels, RickJSports and RickJInvest

If you wish to join us for the free period of time, just send me an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I will have you signed up quickly with invites to both discord channels.

A week before the beginning of college football I will start sending out reminders that the free service becomes a paying service soon. Most subscribers sign up for the $49.00 a month option with a few taking the $499.00 yearly option.

I started sharing my picks online over 20 years ago. It is a testament to my ability to find positive EV plays, that I have had subscribers from day 1!  I am 100% transparent on my results as those that know me know.  Almost all my new signups come from word of mouth, as I do not advertise. 

If anyone has any questions, please do not hesitate to write me at the above email address.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

MLB has arrived, we have 28 overnight plays under our belt, and its free!!!

MLB begins what is a very long season with a lot of plays and also tends to have a lot of swings.

I have concentrated on the overnight sides, which over the last 3 years have been very profitable for subscribers.

This season is no different as we are 15-13 for our overnight sides, +3.53 units, That is an ROI of around 12% based upon $100.00 unit plays.

Another metric I track daily is where the play line is in relation to the closing line at game time.  Our line that we wager has beat the closing line 18-8-2 with an avg difference of close to .04. The rate of beating the closing line is great. The .04 is fine, I like to see something closer to double that.

So, a solid start to these overnight sides.  The number of plays per day has been running from 0 to 3.

Baseball overnight sides is turning into one of the most profitable methods. In contrast to day of the game betting that has been break even at best over the years.

My view is when you find a method that works, stick to it and leave the under performing methods alone.

No in May totals kick in. Historically they have been solid. But they tend to have bigger swings than the overnight sides, and they are day of the game plays.

So we will have to wait and see how these come out this season.

As most of you know by now, all my plays and stock selections are free until the beginning of college football.

The reasons are that I am using a new database for MLB, and I will be fine tuning my Discord channels. I transferred everything over from slack. I will still post on both, but Discord keeps all prior posts for all to see from the beginning of when I started posting on Slack, years ago.

Finally, I am in the process of selling my house and buying another.

So, I have a lot on my plate, and I thought it best to convert everything to FREE this year until the first game of college football kicks off. Then it will be back to unusual

If you want an invitation to my discord channels , send me an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I will send you an invite and also put you on the email list.

You will then get a chance to get a good look at what I have been doing successfully over the last 20+ years with RickJ’s Handicapping Picks.

I am always available for questions.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Discord:

RickJSports

RickJInvest

Slack:

Rickjsports

RickJInvest

The service will be free beginning day 1 of MLB until the start of football

I am in the process of making some major changes to the way I operate thing. I have been doing this for 20+ years virtually the same way. The only thing I changed was going from twitter to Slack.

That worked for awhile, but the restrictions on the free version of slack meant that all the history of plays disappeared after a few months.

So I have moved all my slack channels to Discord, that keeps the entire history intact. I had to find someone to import my slack channels and history. I took me some time to find the right person, but finally the person I hired did an excellent job and the process is now finished.

There are a number of improvements I want to make to the two discord channels and will be doing that during the MLB season.  The two discord channels will be

RickJSports  and RickJInvest

I plan on sending out an invite to all former subscribers to my service the day before the regular season begins as MLB primarily consists of overnight plays.

We have had a number of winning seasons now in MLB, primarily because I am concentrating on overnight plays. I have no reason to think this year will be any different.

So, if your on the email list, you will get an invite, or if you read this and have never been a subscriber, just send me an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks and I will put you on the invite list.

For current subscribers, I will put your recurring subscription on pause, as I did when baseball had their difficulty with no games most of the season. Then when the first NCAA FB game begins, your subscription will begin where you left off.  Or you also have the choice of getting a pro rata refund. I have no preference, you choice:)

The NCAA Tournament begins this week.  Feel free to join us for the tournament.

I have made it easy to sign up. https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/DUA6TS4A9R75J

Click the link and it will take you to a paypal screen for 25.00. This will give you a two weeks paid subscription with no renewal. But since everything will be free month end, you will already be in the system ready to go, until the start of college football.

This will also get you access to my two discord channels, RickJSports and RickJInvest

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

We are approaching a back to back +17 unit MLB Seasons Week 2 of the NFL Top 5 contest picks, Westgate top 5 picks all posted

As we are finishing with regular season MLB it appears that +17 units is in the cards. That means the 2nd season in a row of double digit gains on overnight sides. This is a welcome addition to our steady sports positive EV plays.

In the NFL last week we had 3 plays.

Arizona was an easy cover, Houston was not close, and then it came down to Indy +3.5. All was looking good with less than a min left. 2 and goal at the 1 yard line meant a very good chance at a cover:)  But two incomplete passes and an up the middle failed drive left Indy not covering the spread. Oh well:)

This week I have sent out one play.

My top 5 contest picks this week are:

Jacksonville +3.5
Arizona +5.5
Rams +8
Jets +9.5
Carolina +3

The Westgate Top 5 picks went 4-1 last week vs the spread. Typically you want to be fading these.

Atlanta  +1

Seattle   +5.5

New England  +3

Pitt   +2.5

Jets +9.5

The Bottom 5 picks in the Westgate

Minn +6 (Winner)

Phil   -6  (Lose)

Dallas -9.5

Wash  +3.5

Indy -1

I am with the Westgate top 5 on two games, and not fading any of the top 5:(  Not a place I like to be all things being equal.

My top 5 went 3-2 last week, and in the contest where I pick every game against the spread I went 9-7. 

On Thursday I had

Minn in the all spread contest so I have 1 win heading into today.

I sit tied for 27th in that contest.

It is not too late to join us as we have a lot of football left. We also have MLB playoffs on tap.

Just go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com. Use the paypal dropdown menu and choose the monthly subscription option. The cost is only 49.00 a month.

That gives you email and slack access to all sports active that I handicap. In addition you will have access to my slack investing channel where I share my thoughts on the markets, along with sharing many of the trades I make. This has been a very popular valued added feature at no additional cost. 

All slack channels have forums to discuss the variety of subjects that each forum covers.

Hope to see you join us. I have had this online site for 20+ years now:)

 

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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