Investing - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Indexes slightly lower, China trade deal, Schiff clown show, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday Morning.

The markets are slightly lower this morning with TLT + almost 1%. @Cl +3/4% vix.x +2.5%. To me, that is a slightly negative premarket configuration.

The news is more problems with the China trade deal. The positive was the clown show in the House. The markets are not concerned one bit about this impeachment show in the House. They will not get concerned unless the Senate starts taking it seriously.

I expect drama in the Senate, with the end result no conviction and a lot of posturing by the politicians. In addition, being a gambler 4 to 1 is not that big of a long shot. Considering the number of 1 outer you see every day, 51 to 1, it is not 100% that our crooked Republicans in the Senate do not convict Trump.

If it was a secret vote, he would lose by 1 vote. But an open vote, it is just a question of how crooked they are. And I assure you, there will be drama. The best bet I can see right now is to take the 18/82 odds with the idea of laying it off once you have a 20% or so profit on the wager. That is only if the bet is not on unless the House actually impeaches. Otherwise, it’s not worth wagering on.

I cannot tell from the rules on predictit.org what the rules are on that.

I do not have any swing trades on at present, just some income trades expiring this week and also my portfolio.

Let’s take a look at the political odds this morning:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 44/56 -3 Pts

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 75/25 -1 Pts ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 16/84 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch)

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 79/21 No Change (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 41/59 -1 Pt
Warren: 17/83 – 2 Pts
Biden: 13/77 -1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 5/95 + 1 Pt
Clinton 5/95 No Change

LA Governor’s race 58/42 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) +3 PTS

KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change

MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 37/63 -3 Pts I laid 40/60

Not much change although the odds of conviction in the Senate keep slipping down. That is the number to watch.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Indexes off on the open, live star chamber hears begin today, who to listen to on what is happening, updated political odds. My thoughts for Wedn Morning

The indexes are off about 1/3% this morning. TLT +.75% @CL -.60% and vix.x +4%

This is a negative premarket. Watch to see how vix.x reacts this morning. If it head toward +7% expect a further dip, if it heads toward 0 expect at least a gap fill.

A lot of market-moving news today. China’s trade is up in the air. Live star-chamber hearings begin in the House today. The rules could not have been set better if Stalin had made the rules.

The Democrats get a Lawfare Attorney to cross-examine witnesses, while the Republicans get none. The Democrats determine who is to be called, The Republicans have no say in calling witness’, as the ones they suggested were all turned down by Schiff.

For all intents and purposes, this is a continuation of the Russia Russia Russia hoax to remove the President. I know there is a lot of anxiety among Trump supporters. All I can say is, watch the odds. They have stayed at 82/18 against conviction in the Senate. If this falls to 2 to 1 or less, its time to be concerned.

Do not believe a word of what the media says or the political spin. Either watch it yourself or find a good investigative reporter who will give you an honest take on what is occurring. There is a handful. Strassel from the Wall Street Journal is excellent. I have no doubt she will be covering this. There are more but she has no ideology, just plain straight reporting.

For the law look toward Turley and Dershowitz. Both are liberals, and both have the highest levels of integrity. They will not steer you wrong. Now they may disagree on an issue or two, but listen to them and you will have a good idea of what the legal issues are. Dershowitz has already come out and side the House hearings are right out of the Stalin area.

I have not seen much from Turley yet on this.

I am still not convinced they have the votes in the House to impeach. Remember they have had two votes. Both have failed. But it seems the pressure will prevail and impeachment will likely occur.

Then it gets to the Senate. I have little doubt if it was a secret vote Trump would be toast. But since it has to be open voting, the odds of conviction, in my opinion, are still around 10 to 1 against. The betting odds are a bit over 4 to 1 against.

But the Republicans spend 2 years investigating the fake Russia hoax, knowing it was fake. The pressure will be enormous. And there will be the usual suspect that will convict. Romney and a few others. We will soon find out for certain who the traitors are in the Senate. I already have a good idea, but this vote will leave all doubt behind.

This is a dark time in American History. How dark it gets remains to be seen. Let’s take it day by day and I will try to update my thoughts as things unfold.

I assure you if the market thinks removal is a possibility it is going to head south.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the genius Powell testifies at 11 eastern time.

So a lot to keep track of today if you are an active trader.

Let’s look at the updated political odds:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 47/53 +3 Pts

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 76/24 -2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 17/83 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch)

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 79/21 +1 Pt (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 42/58 No Change
Warren: 17/83 – 2 Pts
Biden: 14/76 +1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 4/96 No Change
Clinton 5/95 + 1 PT

LA Governor’s race 55/45 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) -2 PTS

KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change

MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 40/60 -3 Pts I laid 40/60

Not much change to speak of. One wager that looks reasonable is to take the 17/83 on conviction with the idea of laying it off when the inevitable scare hits. I suspect you can pretty much get a quick .10 profit without much risk. The only way you would lose if there is no drama in the Senate, or the House does not impeach.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

0

Indexes unchanged, gaslighting, cancel culture, left-wing jews, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Tuesday Morning

Indexes are hovering around the 0 line this morning waiting to hear from the President on Trade. That speech comes around 7 AM PST. @CL is +1/2% TLT about unchanged and Vix.x +1%.

Monday was an interesting day with Vix.x +10% but slowly all day the market rebounded as vix.x fell. It’s important to watch what vix.x is doing. Have the chart up on the screen, 5 min is fine, to see what the trend is. That is a very good tell.

I exited my long TLT Afterhours yesterday for a loss. So now have no swings going. Just income trades and my portfolio.

The markets are waiting to hear from the President on Trade. A speech coming up in an hour or so. I do not expect any movement until after the speech. Also, the President has indicated there is a transcript of another Ukraine call that preceded the one all the hysteria is about. I suspect that should be interesting:)

It is really the twilight zone that there is all this hysteria over the phone call, considering the real crimes that have been committed by many of our politicians. Conducting foreign policy is not a crime. Even if you took the argument of the left in the worst light, Trump has done nothing wrong. But the worst light is not even close to reality as the transcript and the testimony has shown.

Dershowitz said it best. The House proceedings are no different then what you would have seen under Stalin. Dershowitz is one of the leading constitutional law experts in the world and is a liberal.

He has hit it about as accurate as you can get. I never thought I would see in America, proceedings of this nature where all due process, all constitutional rights, are intentionally suppressed to further a takedown of a sitting President. But here we are. Politics has reached a point where it is a very destructive element in our society now.

How can it change? That is a tough question as they have already gaslighted so many innocent Americans beyond repair. Human nature what it is people listen to the news and they think they are experts, essentially repeating what the media tells them. After all, everyone wants to be an expert these days.

But, the media has turned into a propaganda machine. And many in the public cannot tell the difference. I have relatives that actually think CNN is a centrist news outlet:) Needless to say, I stay away from politics when around some of my relatives.

But they are intelligent people. They are professionals, educated. And yet they have succumbed to the 24/7 fake news. That is what the left is counting on. It’s a very difficult problem when the media in a country has taken sides and has become a propaganda outlet. Combine that with the vicious attacks of anyone that gets in their way and it becomes fascism.

One needs only look at Ken Fischer, Steve Wynn, the CEO of Mozilla, as some of the examples of people that the left has tried to destroy. And why? They are associated with Conservative campaigns. so it becomes seek and destroy missions, with people working around the clock to uncover anything they can use.

Then when they find something they go to their trained monkeys in the media and its 24/7 attacks. In many instances, if they cannot find anything they make it up.

This has got to stop one way or another. Do not expect Congress to do anything as they are scared to death. Look at the people not running. They have had enough. So they quit.

If this is not reversed, it does not bode well for the future of the U.S.

And this all eventually will spill over into the markets. Not today or tomorrow, but eventually it will happen.

As a Jew, I find it astonishing that some of the worst offenders are left-wing jews. They use the same tactics that have been used against jews for many years. Slander and lies. It astonishes me to see this unfolding. As if there was one subset of people that I would have thought would be sensitive to these tactics it would be Jewish people.

But left-wing Jews in America have lost their way. And in the end, it will be devastating for them.

Now back to the markets:) Watch to see what the President says about trade this morning and watch how the market reacts. How the market reacts is the key as opposed to what he says.

Now onto the political odds:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 44/56 -2 Pts

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 78/22 -1 Pt ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 No Change (This is the one to watch)

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 78/22 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 42/58  No Change
Warren: 19/81 No Change
Biden: 13/77  No Change
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 4/96  No Change
Clinton 4/96 No Change

LA Governor’s race 57/43 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) -3 PTS

KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change

MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 43/57 No Change I laid 40/60

Not much change in the odds. The only wager I have going right now is the Giuliani wager.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

0

Indexes red, Star chamber goes live, How can this be happening, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Monday morning.

The indexes are off this Monday morning almost 1/2%. @CL -1% TLT +.35% and $Vix.x +10.38%

This is a bearish configuration. There is a reasonable chance of a trend day down today. Whenever you get Vix.x plus over 7% the downside is usually the way things go.

We are overbought so a pullback is overdue. What to watch for? The duration and % drop of the pullback.

I doubt I will be trading to the long side this morning on swings. There will be a strong headwind. As far as short trades right now I do not have any on my radar.

I exited my short FXE on Friday for about a 1.5% gain. I am still long TLT and am underwater on this trade for now.

I suspect that the upcoming public star chamber in the House has made the markets nervous. Schiff is ruling the proceedings in a way that Goebels would be proud of him. No due process, No witnesses approved by the other side, no attorneys allowed (except of course lawfare to help Schiff out). A real true to life star chamber designed to overthrow the presidency.

So as an outside observer looking in, for a country that prides itself on due process, and equal protection under the law, how can this be happening? Where are the checks and balances that would prevent a totalitarian event like this to occur?

Well, the answer is the U.S. political and justice system has broken down. It’s that simple. Years of corruption, years of voter apathy, years of extremists infiltration the U.S. teaching institutions and of course the infiltration of the media have created the perfect storm for the U.S.

Human nature is a delicate thing. You can behold untold kindness and beauty from humans on one end of the spectrum but on the other end, you can behold horrors that beyond comprehension. This is nothing new. It has been going on for 1000s of years. It would be illogical to think it would change because after all, humans are human.

What has changed is the horror end is now reaching the shores of the U.S. They have been isolated to a degree observing the horrors in other countries, like Germany and the Holocaust, the genocide in Africa, the human rights abuses in China, and I could go on and on.

But there has been a shift. It started in Western Europe where we have seen first hand the results. And is now here in the U.S. And Americans are acting like a deer in headlights. They watch with amazement and go on with their lives like nothing is happening. Can you blame them? After all, Americans have had it very good here. Freedoms that almost no one else in the world has.

So, in their defense, I can see why they are not that concerned. And many get their news from the mainstream media. So, of course, they are being brainwashed into thinking the problem is Trump Trump Trump. There are thinking Americans that observe and know what is going on. They are not only Republicans but also Democrats and independents that are worried. And rightfully so.

I am an oddsmaker. A handicapper. I quantify things that tend to be unquantifiable. That has always been my long suit over the years. Anyone can quantify the quantifiable, but the unquantifiable requires a certain skill. And without bragging I have it. I always have as long as I can remember.

I have friends that are mathematically inclined that I could not begin to think the way they process. I have had many bridge partners that were in that category. And I have seen many poker players that excelled at that. But give them a situation that is not prone to mathematical analysis and they tend to be lost.

What we are observing now in the U.S. falls into the unquantifiable. And the conclusions I am coming to disturb me. When you have a star chamber in the House with no protections that is a continuation of a coup to overthrow the President that started on day 1, and you have bands of Antifa roaming around terrorizing innocent people with our politicians either remaining silent or encouraging them, something is way off in the U.S. Not somewhat off, but way off.

I am not going to quantify anything right now for you as it will depress you. But let’s leave it that I am not optimistic as to the outcome of how the U.S. transforms when all is said and done.

At this point, it would require extreme measures to reverse what is occurring. Measures that Americans have no stomach for. But in 5 to 10 years they will have wished they did.

So where does this leave us on the markets? For the time being, we are in the best six months of the year but we are approaching the star chamber and an eventual trial in the Senate. This will not be good for the markets, nor will it be good for the American people. The media will be in high gear with 24/7 propaganda and the pressure on the Senate if it gets that far will be like none you have seen before.

There will be bribes, blackmail, death threats, all designed to get our Senators to convict Trump. They will be attacked in the media. It will not be a pretty sight.

So I expect that before long the markets are going to fall. Until this gets straightened out one way or another.

Let’s look at the political odds before I leave this morning:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 46/54 No Change

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 No Change ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 No Change (This is the one to watch)

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 79/21 +1 Pt (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 42/58 +1 Pt
Warren: 19/81 No Change
Biden: 13/77 +1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 +1 Pt
Bloomberg 4/96 -4 Pts
Clinton 4/96 No Change

LA Governor’s race 60/40 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) -10 PTS

KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change

MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 43/57 – 1 Pt I laid 40/60

No real significant changes. The odds are not giving Bloomberg much of a chance at getting the nomination.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

0

Indexes slightly lower, Bloomberg, The Countries firewall is short on time, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Friday morning.

The indexes are slightly lower early this morning. TLT +.5% @CL -1.38% Vix.x +1.49%

This to me looks like a range day with the potential of a pullback.

Unfortunately, all you can do is make an educated guess where the markets are headed:) There is no certainty in all of this.

My two swing trades are still on with Short FXE and Long TLT. I did get an exit signal on FXE and will get out on the open. TLT no signal yet.

The stock market is very overbought here. Any bad news will send this market lower. But for now, it is up every day:)

Not much in the news. Bloomberg is thinking about entering the fray as a Democrat presidential candidate. If he were to get the nomination the progressive side of the party would revolt.

I am in a pretty down mood this morning, as I have come to the conclusion that the U.S. is in trouble.

I have no political ideology. I call it as I see it. I voted for Obama in his first term. I am not dogmatic on any issue. I even ran as a Democrat a long time ago in a local race:)

But what I am observing now in the U.S. is the fabric of the society falling apart. The country is divided, the politicians are corrupt, laws are being selectively enforced on a political basis, half the country is brainwashed. So what is the prognosis? Not good.

I know many are thinking Huber, Durham, and Barr are going to come in and save the day with indictments. But remember, 2020 is an election year. Unless they plan military tribunals, the criminal justice system takes a long time to get through the process. If Trump loses in 2020, all prosecutions will be dropped, they will attempt to destroy Trump and his family.

If you think the proceedings in the House are scary, wait until you see what happens if Trump loses.

I think what you are seeing now is what John Adams predicted:

Indexes slightly lower, Bloomberg, The Countries firewall is short on time, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Friday morning. 3

In the long run, this does not bode well for the markets. Short term, however, it is just something to keep a watch on. You can protect yourself by not being in debt, And staying mentally healthy. There will be some challenging times coming. It is around the corner.

Let’s take a look at the political odds this morning:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 46/54 +4 Pts

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 -1 Pts ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 No Change (This is the one to watch)

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 78/22 +1 Pt (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 41/57 -1 Pt
Warren: 19/81 +1 Pts
Biden: 12/78 -1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 -2 Pts
Sanders 9/91 -1 Pt
Bloomberg 8/92
Clinton 4/96 No Change

LA Governor’s race 50/50 Republican Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)

KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works.

MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 44/56 No Change I laid 40/60

The only change was Bloomberg into the picture. So far the Senate is holding firm on no conviction. That is the line to watch at this point. Personally, I think there will be some drama in the Senate. I do not think Trump will be convicted but knowing the politicians they are all drama queens. So expect some nail-biting if you are a Trump supporter.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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