Countdown to the OIG report!!! How will this affect the stock market?

A strong day in the stock market on Monday. And today we may get some follow through.

The stock market is gaping up again with QQQ leading the way. TLT and the U.S. Dollar is the only red I am seeing this morning.

This to me is a bullish premarket. With the market in a neutral area right now it would not surprise me to get another big rally today.

Of course, we always are susceptible to a big news item in our dysfunctional political environment hitting the airways. But this is the environment we are trading in. Don’t fight it. And let’s see if we can profit from it:)

So far every bit hit the market has taken based upon both exaggerated news and in many instances, fake news has shown the market to rebound almost immediately.

This has been very reliable so far. It has been as reliable as the debt ceiling trade!

So, why fight it. Wait for the news to hit. Evaluate whether its the steady stream of fake news, and then start buying. I would scale in at 1/4 increments.

The trick is to determine what is fake and what is not. But if you have been following the political drama from reliable sources it’s really pretty simple.

It requires you to make certain assumptions. 1. That the news media is in the tank to remove this president 2. That leaks will come out typically toward the end of the week or after a big win by the Whtie House 3. The news will border on the incredulous:)

Now, number 3 is interesting. As if your only watching the mainstream media nothing will seem incredulous to your except why is the President not in prison yet for treason.

If that is your mindset please start reading the Wall Street Journal. Also start following Glenn Greenwald, Johnathon Turley, and Alan Dershowitz.

If you only follow these 4 you will have a pretty accurate picture of what reality is. If your up on these sources you will see that I have left out any conservative sites or right leaning people.

Greenwald is on the left end of the spectrum, Dershowitz and Turley are both moderate Democrats both who voted for Hillary, and the Wall Street Journal is probably the only mainstream news source that has retained its integrity during this entire process.

Beware, if your only watching CNN and MSNBC, you’re going to be in shock. And it will take some time to adjust to the new reality if you can. But if you’re going to make money in the markets based upon the political environment you really have to have some semblance of a picture of what reality is.

Now it is fine to be a “progressive liberal” or a Right-wing conservative. I have friends in both camps. And it’s fine to be an ideologue.

To each his own, live and let live is my motto. But when it comes to trading a grasp on the real situation on the ground is essential.

Enough said on this for now. So where are the opportunities?

1. The next big fake news item
I suspect with the OIG report coming out anytime now that we will get hit with a big news item soon.
Add the recent aggressive stance of the White House where all documents are to be turned over to the House Intelligence committee unredacted makes fake news an almost certainty at any time.

2. N. Korea
If the White House has success with the N. Korea talks I expect a nice rally. Markets will open up in N. Korea and it will be positive for not only the U.S. but the entire world

3. Iran
Several things to watch here. Regime change and Sanction
This will be an ebb and flow.

4. Gaza
Watch the turmoil here.

5. Syria
Watch the turmoil here

So a lot going on. But that is the way we want it:) The more complex the political dysfunction is and the world is the more opportunity.

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja


No tariffs!!! Will the opening gap old today or will political dysfunction send the market lower?

The Stock Market is gaping up this morning over 1/2% on the news that the U.S. and China have worked out a trade agreement.

In simplistic terms, it means no tariffs and more trade with China. It designed, in theory, to cut the trade deficit with China in half.

In normal times this type of breakthrough would propel the market to a larger gap. But these are not normal times.

The end game is here that our policial hacks have been playing out before our eyes.

The biggest revelation now is that the FBI had a “spy” in the Trump campaign. This is rather earthshaking news in a Democracy that has prided itself on a peaceful transition of power.

But this transition has been anything but peaceful. In simplistic terms, it comes down to a group that is hell-bent on having Trump removed from office.

There are various theories out there but make no mistake the multitude of FBI firings and resignations leave no doubt that something was afoot.

So we are at the point where Trump has indicated he is going to make a formal demand to the DOJ to investigate any involvement of putting spies into the campaign by the FBI.

And from the other side, Brennan is threatening not only Trump but also Ryan and McConnell.

No this seems a bit strange as Brennan is no longer in a position of power. He is a private citizen and a CNN commentator now.

So I must be missing something to see his threats coming across twitter.

This is the end game. People are in panic mode now. The OIG report will be out any day now. And it is likely to expose a lot of people.

Now, it much more complex than the above. I tried to capsulize it to give you some background in which the markets will be trading the next two to three weeks.

As the tide shifts back and forth between the political players I expect we will see volatility increase.

As it appears Trump is threatened the market will plunge and the safer he is the market will rally. Short term that is. Long term has different variables.

The problem with the entire political scheme we are seeing unfolding is that lines have been crossed. There is no chance at this point for a shaking of the hands and a compromise for the good of the country.

This is going to play out as I see it that Trump will either be removed from office or people are heading to prison for a very long time.

That is my take. I usually see things we a jaundiced take when it comes to politics as the very worst in human nature is almost always on display.

But even working that bias into the equation I see no out for a peaceful resolution. There will be no Kum Bay Ya and let bygones be bygones. It will be as they said in “Rob Roy” before that great sword fight, “No quarter asked and No Quarter given”

The obvious question is who is going to win this fight. I have my opinions but considering the political schism here in the U.S. I am going to keep them to myself.

But I will tell you that we will have a very good idea soon who the winner will be. When the OIG report comes out and what actions are taken by the DOJ after the report is issued will give us a hint as to the outcome.

Do not be complacent with your longs at this time. It’s best to stay on the conservative side of things until the political storm subsides. It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

I am long a core portfolio of ETFs and some equities that are primarily income driven. I also have a sizable bond portfolio. I have lightened up substantially on pure growth.

One investment I have discovered is Baby Bonds. They are traded like any equity, most are of a very short duration, and most yield over 6%. There is some screening you have to do but if you do your homework it can provide you with a very solid income source.

Let me close this morning but saying that most of you have guessed I follow the political events rather closely.

I do not follow it with any preconceived ideas of who is right or wrong. It is much too complex to have blanket opinions.

And it’s much too complex to be a Trump hater or a Trump worshipper.

If you’re stuck in one of those modes that are fine. But you will be missing out completely as to what is unfolding here in the U.S. These are very interesting times and complex times.

The issues are intricate. And the subterfuge behind the scenes beats any spy novel you will ever read. You have to have reliable people to give you the input on what is going on. And that is like finding a needle in the haystack.

I have given you in previous posts my list of people that if follow them you will have some semblance of what the issues are and the facts.

But if you only listen to the Mainstream media will you be in an alternate universe that does not closely resemble what is transpiring.

An exception is the Wall Street Journal. They are middle of the road. And is the only media publication I see that is objective in its facts and opinions.

If your an active trader and live in this delusional universe you will most likely end up losing money. Or at the very least leave a lot of money on the table.

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja


How far is this stock market going to go this time? What is fueling it?

A new week for the stock market and it looks like we are off to the races this week.

The stock market is gaping up around 1/4% with TLT and SLV the only red I see on the screen this morning.

That is a positive premarket to me.

There is a lot of positive news this morning. The biggest of which is the U.S. China trade deal.

A top Chinese official and a delegation will be in the U.S. this week to discuss trade. Combine that with the White House lifting restrictions on ZTE, a chinese company, that they dropped the hammer on a few weeks ago.

All indications are that a trade deal is in the works. The tariff talk was posturing for a deal and it looks like it will be successful. If N. Korea is any clue I imagine the trade deal will be excellent for the U.S.

This is all very bullish for the markets. More than you can imagine.

But, the uncertainty of the fallout of leaving the Iran deal is high on the negative side.

We are at the beginning stages of a lot of chaos. But remember this White House thrives on Chaos. While everyone else is swiming in uncertainty this White House operates at its best.

The primary concern right now is what will the E.U. do. This is an interesting situation. The E. U. is now in a very tough spot.

I imagine they have a lot of money hanging out to dry right now. In addition, Iran stating they will out the politicians that took bribes to get this Iran deal through most likely has a lot of people losing sleep right now.

Then you have the White House who does no appear to be softening its stance toward the E. U.

If this is not complex enough you have Kerry, Obama and the gang meeting with E.U. officials and Iranian officals essentially giving them advice on how to circumvent U.S. policy.

You cannot make these scenerios up:)

My guess is it will wash out by the E.U. capitulating to the White House. Already european companies are holding off on their investments in Iran. They will yell and scream but come along for the ride.

That is no certainty. There may will be a confrontation with our allies on this. And there may well be fallout to Kerry and the gang for interfering with U.S. policy.

Its too early to tell at this point but we should have a better grasp on things by the end of the week. This will be a long drawn out affair with Iran. It will not be as simple as N.Korea has worked out to be. There is no China to intervene. Its an entirely different dynamic.

That is a brief synopsis of events. Of course there are more: The OIG report due out in several weeks, the SC investigation, dysfunction in Congress, primarys and the upcoming budget fight.

With that in mind the markets are overbought right now. It would not take much news to send the markets lower for a pullback.

I am long a core porfolio of stocks, bonds and ETFS. The great bulk of my core portfolio has reasonable dividend and interest. Only a small amount in pure growth stocks.

I plan on adding to this soon with some reasonable yeilding instruments. Mid risk bonds look very attractive to me right now with the business environment so solid right now.

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja


So far the Stock Market is weathering the onslaught of daily news. How long can this continue???

The Stock Market has a strong day on Wednesday and it looks like it will continue, at least on the open.

The stock market is up over 1/4% across all index’ with QQQ leading the way.

Of note, all I see is green this morning even TLT.

That to me is a neutral premarket bias.

One thing you can agree with regardless of your political leaning is that every day is a news day.

On Wednesday we get the hostages home from N. Korea, we have Israel and Iran fighting in Syria openly, and we have a new revelation by Stormy Daniel’s Atty about Cohen.

Each one of these alone could have an effect on the market. All three together who knows what they will bring.

N. Korea is nothing but positive for the market as it seems to show that so far all is going well with our strategy with N. Korea.

Israel and Iran have the potential to turn into something very ugly. Right now both sides are posturing but it has the potential to blow wide open. It’s something to keep a watch on. Oil and Metals will be the most affected by this activity.

Stormy Daniel’s attorney revelations about Cohen if it were to have come out 6 months ago might have had some effect on the markets.

But every several days we get news similar to this that has turned out to be either completely false or misrepresented for what it reveals.

So for now, the markets have ignored this news. I suspect that will be the case unless something different happens with this news this time.

As a side issue is the CIA hearings for who is going to lead the department. I watched the hearings yesterday and I have to say it might be a good idea to do away with the Senate confirming nominations. It has turned into a real circus that really serves no purpose.

Purely partisan without any meaningful thought or discussion. There should be a better approach that takes politics out of the leaders of these various agencies. I off the top of my head do not know what approach that should be.

But give me a day or so and I could most likely come up with something that is much better than the Senate has to confirm heads of these agencies.

All these hearings do is allow the political dysfunction to be on full display for all to see. It could not be any worse. So do not expect to get any help in these markets from our political system. Any gains will be in spite of it.

The stock market this morning is a bit overbought. I would be looking to short somewhere here but one of my primary indicators is positive. As long as the Nasdaq is leading the [email protected] index I do not plan on taking any significant shorts.

I have a core portfolio long consisting of mostly income producing equities and bonds. I will stick with this for the time being.

As far as mean reversion it is off the table until we get a significant pullback. So far the last two pullbacks have come just shy of triggering my mean reversion entries.

So, it’s going to be a test of patience for me. Something I excel at after playing poker in Vegas full time for 15 years:)

We still have some significant events around the corner. The IG report is probably the next to hit. But, I would be aware of news to come out (True or False) to try to take attention away from what appears to be a bombshell in the IG report.

In any event, I do not have to worry about that as I have just a core position on that has much less risk to the downside in the event of a drop.

On final thing. I see where one of my favorite sites for investing education is putting out a free seminar. I highly suggest if you wish to get some good insights in trading that you consider watching this. Everything Rolf puts out is very good. https://www.tradeciety.com/rolfs-trading-strategy-webinar-join/

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja


Will the White House end the Iran Deal today? How will the stock market react?

The stock market is off a bit this morning, however, financials are strong as is oil. My guess is we have a good chance at an intraday rally today. Baring any news of course and that is a big if:)

Never dull is about all you can say right now. Just when the stock market seemed poised to start off the week with a big Monday gain the news hit that the White House would announce at 11:00 AM PST what it plans to do with the Iran deal.

And the market plunged about 150 points in 5 min.

That’s the nature of this market right now. If you knew the news before it hit you could make out like a bandit! And I am confident some are. But myself, I am with most, guessing and attempting to decipher from what I see.

As to the Iran deal, it is not clear to me what the White House is going to do. I have not seen any odds posted on it but if I were to make a line this morning I would say 3 to 2 in favor of an ending of the agreement with Iran.

How the market will react is another story. The reaction from yesterday I do not think should be dispositive on being predictive if the Iran deal is discarded.

Reactions like that are typically kneejerk. On the other hand, if the Iran deal stays in place I would expect a nice rally from that news. There are a lot of business’ that stand to profit from business with Iran. Not only the EU but many U.S. business’ have put there dealing with Iran on hold until this is resolved.

As far as whether it should be discarded that is not the purpose of this site and I will leave that for foreign policy experts to work out.

Then, of course, we learn the Schneiderman, one of Trump’s most vocal opponents in the legal area has resigned.

That too many by surprise, not perhaps the allegations, but that it happened so quickly.

That is the environment we are living in right now. Its a cutthroat political environment and whoever decides to enter the arena is opening themselves up to destruction. Just look at Dr. Ronny Jackson.

No one is safe, including anyone sitting in the White House. Its a take no prisoners atmosphere at all costs. Anything is justifiable, the ends justify the means.

In this environment, you are going to see more and more of this. And whenever it involves someone close to the White House or the financial markets you are going to see reactions.

Combine this with the idea that the seasonal environment for the stock market has past. In addition, the easy fed money is long gone there will be tough sledding for the markets as I see it. At least until we head into mid-October.

But then you have the November Midterms. I do not see the market settling down until after the November Midterms.

That my take. Take it for what it is. One opinion among many. I assure you there are opinions that support any preconceived belief you have on the market going forward.

Today I am watching and most likely not doing anything. Mean reversion is off for now until we get a pullback. We came close to catching a few trades but the drop was just shy of where I wanted to enter the last few times.

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja

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