Investing - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Mueller testimony in a week! Is there any market risk for this event? My thoughts.

Wednesday was a good example of how the environment for short term swing trading is not as easy as it looks, despite the fact the market is running to the upside.

The market started out making new highs and then settled back almost 80 dow points midday. If you have tight stops your going to get whipsawed. If you have wide stops you increase your variance.

There is no easy answer to this. So I tend to use 240 min charts for my stops and use a stop that is volatility adjusted. It is not perfect, but so far its the best I have found for my swing trades to avoid getting whipsawed.

I am still long my SPY position I took a few days ago, and as its a system trade, I will just wait for my exit.

This morning it looks like the rally has more room to go. Indexes are gaping up about .15%. Although the CPI reading just came out with expected readings. And so far that has sent the markets reacting lower.

We have an hour to go, and my expectation is this knee jerk will be reversed my the open.

TLT is off almost 1/2% and Vix.x is slightly negative, with crude positive. This to me is a slightly positive pre-market environment.

Aside from Powell, the news out last night was Iran trying to take over a UK ship. Tensions are still very high in the Mideast, and I doubt things are going to cool off anytime soon. So far Iran does not appear to be backing off it increasing enrichment nor its aggressive activities in the region.

Back home we have the fallout from the Epstein arrest. And we have Mueller scheduled to testify in a week before the House.

My prediction is that the Mueller testimony will end up more favorable to the White House then unfavorable. As far as Epstein it seems there will be many more high profile arrests coming. Many of which will surprise many.

There little to no chance Trump will be drawn into this, except for the propaganda media. But since I get my news from other sources, they do not influence me. The mainstream media have become a full-time propaganda machine at this point. If you are using them for your news sources you are doing yourself a disservice.

Today I will be managing trades, with perhaps adding one or two more swings. The market is strong right now, and its the time to take advantage of the tailwind you get.

I tend to do a lot of reading early in the morning and a short newsletter I enjoy is https://www.morningbrew.com/. It’s a short read but entertaining.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Powell testimony gives the markets a boost this morning. My thoughts.

It was all about Powell this morning. His statement was released about 10 min ago and the market went from negative to solidly positive in a short time.

Indexes are up from 1/5 to 1/2 % TLT -.25% Crude +2.5% and Vix.x -1.63%

This is a very positive premarket. Absent any surprise testimony from Powell today I suspect we get a nice rally today.

I have quite a bit of long exposure on my swings. More then usual. Yesterday morning I added an SPY position and it is showing a nice gain this morning.

From a technical standpoint the market is neutral. So mean reversion is not in the cards for awhile. But there are still plenty of swing trade setups in individual stocks.

Not much new on the news front. Its more of the same. Insanity in DC is becoming the norm, and Americans are getting used to it. Most tune it out. If your watching cable news, you are really doing yourself a disservice. There are only a handful of commentators, and even the best on cable have red lines as to what they can talk about.

For the morning shows, if your a trader that gets up early, Bartiromo and Varney are both good cable shows that report market news. Both are level headed, and unless your a “progressive ” Democrat you will get a lot out of watching these before the open and the first hour.

A warning, both lean conservative. But, they still tend to be objective and common sense in their views.

Today I will be managing positions, and perhaps adding a few trades if my setups trigger today.

A good source over the weekend for a good breakdown of the markets with a lot of outside sources is https://www.dashofinsight.com

Its the best free site I have found for reviewing the markets, and also giving some investing ideas.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Powell gets grilled for 2 days and the market will be watching. My thoughts:)

Monday was a down day that accelerated from the open. And this morning is not shaping up much better.

The indexes are gaping down about 1/2% and heading lower as I type. TLT is unchanged, Crude is Positive (that is a plus) and Vix.x is up about 5%.

Overall this is a negative bias, but not as negative as Monday premarket.

The wild card today and tomorrow is Powell. He gets grilled by Congress. And I doubt he is going to do the economy any favors. Of course the Dems would like to see higher rates , while the White House wants lower rates. The Republicans who knows:)

No matter how you dice it, it does not look like a recession is in the cards before the 2020 election. Forget about everything you hear in the media, the odds of a recession occurring before Nov 2020 is less than 5%.

As to Powell, its hard to figure what he is going to say. He started out like a wild man tightening at a rapid pace. Now, he has stopped tightening, and is actually talking about watching to see if cuts are appropriate.

Myself, I think the risk is to the downside if he tightens more. The geopolitical and political environment is just too insane right now to think the world economy is going anywhere for awhile.

The U.S. economy however outshines them all. And, inflation remains tame, while GDP, Unemployment, wage rates are all in an upswing. And with no end in sight.

I assure you, however, if a Dem gets elected President, the market will take a hit that will shock you. Higher taxes, increasing regulations, open borders, etc are going to tank this country seriously.

I will be watching the odds heading into 2020. If I think Trump has a chance of losing, I will be putting some serious money on the short side in this market. In my opinion, it will be a once in a life time opportunity.

However, despite the odds being somewhere around 55/45 against Trump right now, I do not see him losing in 2020, absent news. I would put the line out right now at around 2 to 1 in favor of Trump in 2020. That, in my opinion, is conservative:)

I plan on doing a detailed write sometime in a week or so in the political odds section of the site. There are so many variables to consider, its not an easy assignment. But I have been working on it.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I sent out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Powell on Wednesday, Epstein arrested, DM lays off 18000. My thoughts on the markets.

We are starting the week after the 4th with a gap down in the indexes of about 1/2%. Crude is off a bit, TLT up, and Vix.x is up 5%. This has the makings of a selloff today. A bit early to tell, but overall negative pre-market bias.

The big news out of the weekend was DM laying off some 18,000 workers. This should have a negative impact for a few days at least. With the world in trade wars, tensions with Iran building, and other insanity its not surprising that we are perhaps looking at some kind of pullback soon.

This is after the markets reached all time highs last week. On a technical note the Nasdaq / SPY triggered a long signal Friday. So until that reverses I am going to trade long this market, on pullbacks.

Another newsworthy item is the arrest of Epstein for Child trafficking. This is no small event. There are a lot of people connected with Epstein, and the exposure of many in government is a real possibility now. Remember, it was Clinton that pardoned Epstein, and Mueller’s FBI that worked out a plea deal years ago for him.

This renewed interest opens up another front on the world wide child trafficking epidemic that has been allowed to run rampant.

My prediction, heads will fall in DC. And it will be sooner rather than later.

So, as always we start the week with more market moving news. This is the norm now so its something to get used to . In addition, we have Powell testifying before Congress for 2 days starting Wednesday:)

I have quite a bit of long exposure right now. But I am staying dogmatic on my stops. Despite the fact that the markets have been going up, its still be a difficult environment to swing trade.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I sent out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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4th of July weekend. Is the dysfunction of the world finally going to derail the markets? My thoughts.

As we approach the 4th, the markets are holding up very well. Technically we are right in the middle of neutral on the markets.

This morning we are looking at a decent gap up across the board at around 1/3% in the indexes. TLT is +.20% and Vix.x is +.70 % finally crude is +.84%.

A mixed bag but overall a positive premarket. In addition, the 4th of july time tends to be positive. So, I expect a solid up day today.

I am long a variety of positions, along with my core interest bearing position. Also I am short NKE puts a year away. At the very least I expect a short term reaction to the negative sentiment developing toward the company. How long this lasts remains to be seen.

I most likely will only be managing my trades this morning, as I have quite a few short term trades on. My system trade went long GDX yesterday. Those are the easiest to manage as you just wait for the signal to exit. Its all programmed. The trick is not to give in to 2nd guessing it:)

On the news front something strange happened yesterday between Russia and the US.

A Russian sub had some problems, and there were rumors of some confrontation between Russia and the US near Alaska. Combine that with Pence being called back from a flight and the first lady being sent to a secure place, leaves a lot of open questions.
At home, the weekend is shaping up to be a volatile one. Acid attacks promised by Antifa in DC on the 4th. Demonstrations across the country regarding keeping the border open. And a big 4th of July rally in DC. I rate the potential for violence at being very high this weekend.
The liberal courts also again put a roadblock on The White House trying to control the border. This time a federal judge from the 9th ruled that 3 states could not keep illegals in detention. 
Then there are the trade deals. Already the spin is coming out that the NAFTA rewrite is not good for America. No doubt that means Congress is not going to approve it. That would be very bad for America.
So a lot going on:) Almost like watching an episode of 24:)

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I sent out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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