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Gap down this morning in the stock market! What are the considerations to swing trade this morning?

Looks like a gap down this morning for the stock market. All indexes are down close to 1/2 % an hour before the open.

Metals and Oil are off sharply. TLT is unchanged. Financials are mixed.

To me, this looks like a slightly negative premarket open. But there are a lot of conflicting signals this morning.

I made two swing trades yesterday for small losses in each. Typically its two trades and if they do not work I call it quits for my short-term swings. The open seems to be the best time to catch these moves so by the time the 2nd swing is done percentages go down.

I am still accumulating interest-bearing securities, the most I have had in awhile. Nothing long term however as the risk is too high with the fed in interest raising mode. And typically I prefer the actual bond or Baby Bond to ride to completion.

On the news front, it was not long to shift gears for the media. It was Russia and now its Montenegro. Honestly, I do not see you a person with an average intelligence or below can keep their sanity with the hysteria we are seeing now.

Let along the borderline mentally ill that are triggered by the 24/7 negative news. I fear the chances of actual violence breaking out increases daily.

This is something to keep in mind as you invest as there is nothing that happens at home and abroad that does not affect the stock market.

Not sure what my trading plan this morning is with the gap down but typically I like to look at the breath to see how serious the downswing might get. It’s not failsafe but its a nice tool to use as a guide. I will post any trades this morning.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Will the stock market follow through today with the rebound from Tuesday? Some hints here

We are an hour before the open and the stock market is slightly down across the board.areMetals and Oil is weak while TLT is positive. Everything else is mixed.

To me, this looks like a slightly negative premarket bias.

I put on a few bottom reversal trades yesterday in KRE and EWY.

These trades are ETFs that have had a substantial decline, have some sort of bottom formation along with an RSI divergence.

I then use the 20 day MA as an entry if other conditions are also met.

The thing about these trades is that they have a tight stop and if they do not produce your out in a very short period of time.

If you’re right you might be in these trades for months.

The % wins to loses are a bit below 50/50 but the gains far outweigh the losses. If your prone to take a quick gain these trades are not for you:)

Not much new on the geopolitical or U.S. political front. The President tried to diffuse the remarks he made at the press conference and most likely was successful in some type of damage control.

My opinion was he did not have to do a thing except explain that after the Bush fiasco in Iraq with his intelligence on WMD he decided to independently appraise intelligence and not repeat the mistakes of the past.

I wonder if they thought of that approach. Seems pretty obvious to me. Afterall, its pretty much the same neocons that are screaming about the conference that bought the WMD intelligence.

But that is why I handicap sports and trade stocks rather than advising Presidents:)

With everything diffused now the market will be free to operate without the news risk at least for a short time. But I assure you something else will cause hysteria within a short time. That’s the times we are in.

NFLX made quite a rebound yesterday, down almost 15% to close off only 5%. I have a friend that caught the bottom almost perfectly with options and made a bundle. I stayed away from the trade:(

My advice for the day is to never forget what is driving this market. Try to tune out the noise. Interest rates are still low, Tax cuts are kicking in with more tax cuts on the horizon, affordable health care plans are coming out in September, unemployment is low across the board hitting record lows for minorities, and the economy is booming.

That is no small thing and should propel this market much higher absent political news or a full-fledged trade war.

I suggested yesterday the market looked like it might be at a turning point but the rally changed that completely.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Will the stock market follow NFLX (-13%) today? Some things to consider!

The Stock market is down this morning an hour or so before the open. Most indexes are down only slightly except for the Nasdaq which is down almost 1%.

Nothing else very remarkable as much is slightly above or below the 0 line this morning.

As I view it the market is getting in a precarious position at this point as the market has rebounded nicely from the lows.

The Nasdaq has led for some time now but that is in jeopardy and might change this week. If it does that will be a signal of the change I am predicting.

It falls in line with the news also. From Trade, China, N.Korea, Russia hysteria, EU and more, all these are going to have the potential to weigh down the markets.

One thing the markets do have for them is that this President thrives on Chaos. Good or bad he excels at maneuvering through the minefields, some of his own making. And some intentional while others a bad delivery of the message.

As I have said in the past it is important to be able to get through the news of the day and figure out the real issues and facts. You cannot rely on the media anymore. Find your unbiased experts and stick with them for an analysis of what is going on.

What we have now is generated hysteria on everything the President does. From Stormy to Charleston, Trade, Tax Cuts and now the Press conference it has not been logical discourse. Its all been hysteria in unison with the President opponents leading the charge with the media.

Now, for those caught up in this Press Conference hysteria and wish to have an open mind, one only needs to listen to Stephen Cohen who gave an interview on Tucker Carleson’s show last night.

Cohen is one of the leading Russia experts in the U.S and has a very impressive background. And if your wondering he did not vote for the President in the last election.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/07/17/stephen_f_cohen_do_you_prefer_impeaching_trump_or_avoiding_nuclear_war_with_russia.html

This is how you get through the hysteria that you will continue to see every day with this President. It’s essential to getting a good perspective on international and U.S. politics which often shapes the direction of the markets.

Let me add one more comment on this topic. If Bush would have been as skeptical of the intelligence on Iraq we might have stayed out of the disastrous Iraq war! It’s many of the same people that are saying rely on the intelligence that said the same thing before the Iraq invasion.

I am long a basket of equities and ETFs, and bonds weighted toward income production. Also, I have been doing some day trading on select stocks which has been pretty successful. Small gains but have avoided the big losses.

A good example was NFLX. I day traded that two days ago, held into Monday, got a bounce and exited before the close with a very small loss. The reason I decided not to stick with the trade was typically my trades are day trade only right now. And earnings were going to be announced after the close. And as you can see I avoided at -13% gap down on NFLX this morning.

It appears that NFLX has caught the SJW curse. Every company that decides to mix politics with business has at some point taken a big hit in the share price of their stock. I had thought several months ago that NFLX would be a great short but it keeps going up. Then I doubted my analysis:) And here we are, off 13% because of reduced subscriptions. You cannot alienate 1/2 the population that is polarized and not face the consequences.

Good Luck Trading today

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

0

Its all about tariffs this morning for the Stock Market. Will this be a buying opportunity???

A big gap down for the Stock Market today. And most everything else is following except for TLT.

This is a bearish configuration for the markets.

I suspect the worry is trade. The trade war talk is heating up with the mainstream media in high gear bash in White House policies.

Now, perhaps you could give the mainstream media on credibility on this, except for the fact they bash everything this White House does:)

As I told a few friends this morning, let’s wait and see how all this pans out. After all, Trump has been successful in most everything he has undertaken. There is no reason to doubt the end result will be for the U.S.

And remember, we are not talking about free trade. Trump said he was in favor of free trade. But what he is not in favor of is the other countries imposing tariffs while the U.S. takes it on the chin as a result.

That seems logical to me, however, its a very complicated issue.

I view this dip as a buying opportunity. When will be the question. I will be watching a variety of systems to see where a high percentage spot will be to start putting on mean reversion trades.

Probably will not be today.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja

0

The Stock Market is off 177 in the premarket. What is causing this move???

The Stock Market is set to open down this morning. Most everything in the red with TLT up slightly. This is a slightly negative premarket.

It looks to me like the trade uncertainty is front and center right now. So far there has been very little progress on trade, with the rhetoric heating up. Combine this with the schism between the U.S. and the E. U on Iran and you have friction between U.S. allies that you have not seen in the past.

I am not sure how this will end up, as I would have thought trade would have been resolved mostly by now. But for now, it looks like our trading partners are entrenched. So should be interesting to see how this develops.

Then we have the fed raised rates another .25% on Wedn.

In addition, the market is ripe for a pullback. QQQ and IWM have been hitting new highs daily.

With that backdrop, I expect a correction soon. But to me, it looks like a pullback to buy. This market seems to have a ways to go on the upside. The economic environment in the U.S. just keeps getting stronger.

The big caveat is the political dysfunction in the U.S. As a moderate, middle of the roader, Its rather concerning to see the polarization in U.S. politics.

It has become so bad the right and wrong is irrelevant. The sides have become pathological in their hate for each other. Issues do not matter. If one side is on an issue the other side is automatically condemning it.

Of course, the special counsel is helping to fuel this. Every time there are rumors that the special counsel is going to be fired you here that people are going to take to the streets if that happens. Of course, the people saying this will be nowhere near the streets. They will be safe at home with armed guards. It will be the gullible humans that are triggered by this that will risk harm to themselves.

The OIG report finally was released yesterday. If you read the 500+ pages and ignored the spin on the mainstream media, then you know it was very damning of the FBI, DOJ and the Obama administration is not only how they handled the Clinton investigation but also how they are handling the Trump investigation.

This, of course, is causing the Dems to entrench, ignoring what is really a concern for the entire country. As this time it was a Dem that politicized the FBI and DOJ but next time it could well be a Republican.

But in these times logic and reason are very difficult to find. I expect things will get worse before they get better.

If you’re looking for logic and reason, one needs only to listen to Johnathon Turley, Allan Dershowitz, and Glenn Greenwald. All three are lifelong Democrats. Of the three Greenwald is more on the liberal side but his integrity is intact.

If you’re looking for independents you can do no better than Cheryl Atkinson. She has won many prizes for her investigative journalism. Always a straight shooter.

If you would rather listen to people on the right then Tucker Carleson, Trish Reagan, and Maria Bartiromo are excellent. They are on Fox. They are not as one-sided as some of the other commentators on Fox.

I have said this before that unless you have some understanding at what is going on politically and geopolitically you will be at a disadvantage trading. In addition, you will miss out on some great trading opportunities.

For instance, if you can even get close to timing when this administration is going to work out a trade deal with any of its trading partners you will make a lot of money on the long side.

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype: riccja

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