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NFL Week Week 8 contest picks, NFL and NCAA FB season recap, Political odds update coming soon

NFL has been as solid as I can remember this season.  Plays are 14-3-1 or 82%!!! Top 5 contest picks are 23-10-2 or 69.69%!!! and in the contest where I pick every game against the spread I sit at 61-47 or 56.48%.

Like I said it does not get much better then this:)  Today I have sent out 1 play to subscribers. And have also sent out all roadmaps for this week on every game.

In the roadmaps I discuss the various factors of each game with a discussion of how they interrelate. For those doing their own handicapping this  is invaluable.

My 5 Contest picks this week are:

New Orleans +1.5

Pitt +10.5

Detroit +3.5

Green Bay +10.5

Cleveland +3

 

The Westgate top 5 went 2-3 last week bringing its record to 22-13. This is by far the best year I have seen since I have been following it.  Typically it has been a money making proposition to fade the top 5 in this contest. But so far not this season:)

The Westgate top 5 this week is:

NE

Tenn

Ariz

LV

Clev

I am with the top 5 on Cleveland and fading LV with NO.

It is clear to me the games are getting a bit tougher to handicap as we hit week 8:)

In MLB we started out winning with a win in game 1 of the world series with Phil +146

And in NCAA FB after a fast start, we have settled back down with two losing weeks in a row.

We sit at 22-16-1 for sides. Which is a solid 57.89%. But the totals this season have been 0-3. So we

find ourselves at +1.10 units in College football combining the two.

The NHL and NBA have not kicked in yet. Typically early in the season there are no plays until some kind of

history is set up in the databases for the season.  I expect those to kick in soon.

I have been doing this now online for 20+ years, and enjoy the handicapping as much now as when I started posting. While many handicappers have trouble keeping subscribers, I have had subscribers that have been with me since day 1:)

In addition, I try to keep finding ways to add value. The latest is the addition to my stock and option trades on my Slack channels. This has been a big success. As I am +EV on these trades with the drawdowns minimal.

Finally, we are heading into the midterms. I have shared on slack my thoughts of where the value was at. And in virtually every instance the lines have moved substantially in the direction I have projected.  I will post today or tomorrow on where I think things are heading into the midterms, and where I think there may still be value.

It is not too late to join us.  The cost is only $49.00 a month, and it has a 3 day free trial. Instead of paying a large lump sum for each sport, the subscription is month to month and covers every sport I handicap, including my stock and option trades.

One of the best values around.

Hope to see you join us.

Rick J

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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NFL Wk 2 contest picks, Westgate top 5 picks, NCAA FB and MLB Season to date all posted

NFL Wk 1 could not have gone any better.  3-0 on the plays I put out. 4-1 on my contest picks and 10-6 on the all spread contest picks. A solid first week!!!

My top 5 contest picks this week are:

Jets +6.5

Dallas +7

Houston +10

Arizona +5.5

Tenn +10

The Westgate top 5 picks went 3-2 the first week. As you know historically these have been a fade during the season.

The Westgate top 5 picks this week are:

New Orleans

New England

Cinci

Green Bay

Jacksonville

I am fading Cinci and not on any of the other top 5. I like my spot although I would prefer fading 1 or 2 more:)

In NCAA FB this season :

The 2 day short put sales are made on Thursday morning with a Friday expiration. They are screened with a nice cushion between the strike price and the market price of the stock. The annualized return on these can range from 50% on up.
The income trades typically bring in on average 8% a year in dividend income. In addition, most typically end up with a nice capital gain when the discount to NAV disappears and I look for other investment in this category.
Subscribers not only have access to my sports plays, but my trades within minutes after I make them.
The cost is only 49.00 a month, and unlike other services that charge a flat yearly fee per sport, you can cancel at the end of any month. That is why my service has been so steady in it subscriber base.
In addition, I am typically online for any questions related to these almost every morning.
To join us, simply go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com. Head to the paypal drop down menu and subscribe.  You have a 3 day free trial period before being charged.
It is by far the best value in sports handicapping services, with by far solid results. And I have 20 years of records to prove it:)
Saying all of this of course is not a guarantee of continued success. It is gambling and as such requires a solid bet sizing method to control risk. Without that do not even think of signing up. I cover that in my Must read section on top of my web site.
Hope to see you join us today!!!
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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MLB April and May results along with combined season to date results now posted. MLB is now free for all!!!!

May is behind us so we have two months now of MLB using the new MLB data base.

And as expected, there are bright spots and not so bright spots:)

First lets look at the Overnight Sides:

In April:

Sides: 28-22 +9.02 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +9.02)

50 plays, top to bottom swing of 13.52 units and we ended up +9.02 Units for the month. Cannot ask much more from a new data base then that:)

 

In May:

Sides: 21-26 -.14 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.93 to +3.21)

47 Plays for -.14 units with a top to bottom swing of 8.14 units. 

The top to bottom swing remained tame, the number of plays about the same, but we treaded water in May.

 

Putting the two months together:

Sides: 50-48 +9.83 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +12.18)

98 plays, +9.83 units won, and a top to bottom swing of 16.68 units

You will note first that the two months do not add up:) That is a result of my haphazard cross checking. I typically do this manually, and very early in the morning.

So the numbers are going to be off a bit, and the time going back to cross check everything is not worth it.

But the tenor of the results for the first two months is solid. The ROI is 10% which I will take on any method I have.

The other metric I check is how often do we beat the closing line. Remember these are put out the day before.

 

In April:

Sides line bet to closing line : 31-17   241 +5.02 better than closing line per game

A 64.5% rate of beating the closing line at the rate of 5.02 per game. That is a solid rate but I would like to see the difference higher.

In May:

Sides line bet to closing line : 29-13-5   158  +3.36  better than closing line per game

In May we went down to 55% with a rate of 3.36. So both the % of beating the closing line and the rate declined. Which might account for the decrease in units won. 

But most likely you cannot draw any conclusions from  that.

Bottom line: Sides is acting similar to my backtests. And that is a good thing. If this keeps up we have a viable system for next year on the overnight Sides.

That brings us to the overnight totals:(

April:  Totals 1-5 -4.40 

May: Totals 6-11 -6.00

Not a good sign so far on these. And this is in spite of the fact that we beat the closing total line 16-1-6!!!

So, bottom line, its a bit early to tell on the overnight totals. The beating the closing line is a good sign the units lost is not.

Lets see what June brings us on these.

Remember MLB is FREE!!! The use of the new database made me decide it would not be right to charge subscribers as its an unproven real time database I am using. So I made my entire email list along with my Slack channels free for those that wanted to follow along this MLB season. All subscribers were put on pause until the beginning of the NCAA FB Season.

Then it will be back to normal for subscriptions.

During the free MLB season you get not only access to all my plays which include MLB along with any other sport during that time, but also my slack channels.

These were a new addition the last few years. They give you the opportunity to provide input, discussion, ask questions and also if you have an interest follow my stock and option trading.

I have been trading for many years. My trading is as methodical as my handicapping. I include option trades, mean reversion trades , swing trades, income trades with an approach to medium term trading. On occasion I will take an intraday trade.

The one new trading technique I now use every week is my two day short put sale. I developed this during the Covid lockdowns and it has turned out to be one of my most successful trading techniques.

I have posted 438 trades, with a win rate of 94.29% and a profit factor of 2.40. Until recently the drawdowns have been tame. However, trade 392 brought us our biggest drawdown, and we have regained 80% of the drawdown since then. Our 40-0 run has helped:)

These are put out on Thursday shortly after the market open, and expire Friday after the close. The idea is to sell premiums for income with a 2 day hold.

I have a screen I have developed, along with other parameters I use , both fundamental and technical, to decide where there is value in the premiums, with limited risk.

 

It is easy to get on board right now with us as I have made everything FREE until the first game of the NCAA FB season starts. Then its back to the $49.00 a month for everything. Which compared to other subscriptions services is a steal:)

As always I am available for questions. You need just email me at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. And if you wish to sign up for the free MLB season, all you need do is make that request at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I will invite you to both of my slack channels and put you on the email list.

 

Hope to see you join us.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Two day short put sales, RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is free until NCAA FB for all

As you know by now all sports subscribers get access to my Slack channel that many of my real time stock and option trades are posted.

 

This feature has been much more popular then I anticipated and the interest is getting to a level that is equal to the handicapping side.

One of the trades I make weekly has been 2 day short put sales. I have a screen I use on Wednesday evening to come up with a basket

of stocks to consider for this method.

 

Then on Thursday shortly after the market opens, I look to see if there are any premiums to sell, that meet my requirement for Annualized ROI.

To date I have published 422 two day short put sale trades. 397 winners vs 25 losers. That is a win rate of 94.08% with a profit factor of 2.34.

 

The drawdowns have been pretty tame until trade #369 where my largest drawdown to date occurred. So far we have recovered about 60% of the

drawdown over the last 45 trades.

 

422 Trades are reaching a level that is significant. But of course the more trades the more the reliability of the results.

This is a rather conservative method, as the transaction ends Friday after the close.  The result is you either pocket the premium or

take delivery of the stock.

 

Some strategies in short put selling involve rolling it over to another month if you are underwater. Myself,  my preference is to take delivery of

the stock and sell calls against it. If the screening is good, then this approach is the way to go. When you roll, you add transaction costs, and give up EV typically.

 

Here is a post I made this morning on my chat channel to subscribers:

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RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is now Free for the MLB Season!!!!! Sign up now!!!

Starting April 1st, RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is a free service. This will last until the 1st NCAA FB Game

 

All you need to do is send me an email requesting that I add you to the service. I will then add you to my email list where I send out my roadmaps and plays. And also add you to my Slack channels where I post my plays, investment trades and also discussions regarding a variety of subjects.

 

I am doing this as I am using an entire different Database for MLB. It backtests well, but until we get a season of Real Time results behind it I will not charge for MLB.

 

Subscribers have all their subscriptions paused and they will pick up right where they left off when NCAA FB begins.

 

To join us just send me an email to Rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I will add you when I get your email.

 

MLB will go the usual way as it has in the past. Overnights sent out the day before and also regular plays sent out the day of the game. You will also get all plays on other sports I handicap during this time period.

 

This is the first time I have done this since starting my service some 20+ years ago.

 

Remember, all you need do is send me an email to Rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com to become a subscriber. IT IS FREE!!!

 

If anyone has any questions feel free to ask.

 

RickJ

 

RickJ

 

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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All services are free until NCAA FB !!!  2 day Stock Put sales  are making new equity highs weekly!!!

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