Investing - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Markets gaping down a bit, USMCA, Gun Control and the Raiders, My thoughts

The markets are weak this morning about 15 min before the open. -1/5% on the average for the indexes with the Nasdaq leading the way. TLT +15% @CL+75% and Vix.x +3.14%

This is a lightly negative premarket. I would be comfortable playing some sort of gap fill trade today over a continuation trade. But you need to have a proven method that you use.

Congress is back and its more of the same, almost as if they hadn’t left. I decided to take a look at the betting odds of Congress passing USMCA by the end of the year. The odds are 3 to 1 against. If I had to wager on it I would easily lay the 3 to 1:)

That means no relief for the many people that would have benefited from this trade agreement. And if it does not pass this year what are the odds it will pass in an election year? Answer: Virtually no chance.

Top on the agenda is gun control. It’s a politically hot issue. So hot even the Republicans are starting to move on it. Myself, I am a 2nd amendment advocate. It’s in the constitution and unless they have the votes to remove it from the constitution its the law of the land.

As I see it Congress is doing everything but solving the problem. But that is not unusual, as that is typically how they operate. There are a number of things that could be done to make the US safer. But none fit the political narrative. So they go with band-aids that will do nothing, and the outrage will continue as the shootings continue. At least the outrage over everything but the gang violence in the major cities that are taking its toll daily on Americans. Or the lack of outrage of the rapes and killings caused by illegals in this country that have been protected by the courts and sanctuary cities.

I am neither a Republican or a Democrat. I look at the issues logically with no ideological bias. I am far from always right. But I get it right more often than not:)

What this means for the stock market is much more volatility. As the hysteria that has encompassed DC is spilling over to every day Americans.

I talked about shorting a stock a few weeks ago, and I have a few new ones.

Google: they are in the crosshairs of the DOJ and it’s just going to get worse for them as I see it.

Then you have the four or five that have decided to jump into the gun debate. Walmart is the one I suggested shorting before, but there are new ones that have joined in. I doubt they take as big a hit as Walmart, but I would look them over. I do not have the list handy but it is easy to find.

This will not be an immediate gratification trade. But one that will most likely show up in earnings 1 of 2 reports down the road.

As I have said before if your a swing trader you have not been having an easy time of it. Very few that I know are making any easy money right now. Myself, I am grinding along, taking my stops and waiting until we get back to the best time of the year. That begins Nov 1.

One chart to watch is :

As long as the Nasdaq is leading to the downside the upside potential is historically limited. Watch for this to reverse for the next upward blast in the markets.

In the NFL last night I had Oakland as a play that I sent out to subscribers. Here is my write up:

10:20 PM           
481 DEN-J Flacco  43-3+10244-3-101   69%
482 OAK-D Carr  43.5u-10742.5u-100-3-10443u-115Strong EdgeStrong EdgeAvg Edge31%

This is a game you do not see very often. At Cris the line opened Oakland -3 and is now -3 Denver without any injuries. That is probably the biggest move I have seen.

At +3 there is no way you cannot bet on Oakland tonight. I know Oakland stinks. And you have to hold your nose to bet them. But, what you have to do handicapping is forget the name of the team. Just bet the numbers. And the numbers tonight at +3 make Oakland the best wager of the weekend.

Week 1 has not been kind to me. But it could have been a lot worse:)  It was looking like I might go 0-5 at one point. But I have had much worse days than yesterday, and in the scheme of things with everything seeming to go wrong, I am only 0-1-1 on plays and 2-3 in the contest.

Let’s see if we can make it up tonight a bit on Oakland. Even if it loses, I will have no remorse about betting this game. I would bet this each and every time it came up.

I put out an analysis like this on every college football and NFL game for the season.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Markets gaping higher, Congress back in session, and football, my thoughts.

Markets are gaping up again this morning as we start a new week. The indexes are up about 1/4% 20 min before the open. TLT -1% Vix.x unchanged @CL +.8%. This is slightly positive premarket, I would like to see vix.x a lot lower before I would think there would be a decent move to the upside.

Although @CL and TLT certainly are supportive of it.

Not much in the way of news over the weekend. Congress is back, and first on the agenda is the House with there impeachment talks. Not the border, not the trade deals, but get Trump. So, nothing has changed.

My guess is it will be non stop chaos, as the political establishment has had six weeks to scheme. The only good thing is they are not the brightest and typically it shows in their failures.

But in the meantime, important work like the trade deal between the US, Mexico, and Canada will be put on hold. I doubt anything will get passed before the 2020 elections. DC is broken beyond repair at this point.

Now whether this eventually takes its toll on the markets remains to be seen. As long as Trump stays focused and the Fed accommodative the US will stay strong on the economic front, despite the politicians.

It was just a few weeks ago that the left and the media were non stop recession. With the recent rally in the stock market, they are now silent. However, rest assured, the next pullback in the markets will bring them out of the woodwork again. Russia Russia Russia is long gone now, and its whatever they can dream up to get Trump defeated in 2020, no matter what the pain and cost.

That is the state of politics in the US these days. Not a pretty sight. In the meantime enjoy the rally and stay grounded in reality.

Recession is nowhere in sight at this point. The odds of a recession in the next year are less than 50%. Remember the stock market tends to be a leading indicator for a coming recession.

I have a number of swing trades on right now and will be managing them closely.

Football is in gear now and I am off to a slow start:) In College football on my plays I am 3-2 and in the NFL this weekend went 0-1-1. In the two contests I am in I went 2-3 in one and 2-2-1 in the other. The difference was the Carolina game. I had +3 in one contest and +2.5 in the other. It was looking grim but Indiana and Arizona came through for the 2 wins. They both could have gone the other way.

Two NFL games tonight, and I will have a write up for subscribers out later in the day.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Markets gapping up again, Congress, Graham, and 2020. My thoughts.

I guess no one can argue that not only did we break out yesterday, but it was a strong follow-through day:)

This morning an hour before the open the markets are gapping up around .4% with TLT +.10 @CL -1.55% and Vix.x -3.2%.

A mixed bag premarket. We also have the jobs report coming out in 15 min. That has the potential to be market moving. Right now the path of least resistance is to the upside.

Absent a surprise in the jobs report or new news, I suspect we either consolidate here or trend higher. I would not get too excited, however, the sobering fact is Congress is back in session on Monday:( So starting Monday the party is over.

It will be the usual chaos as both parties jockey before the 2020 elections. The one thing the establishment will have in common in both parties is to try to get rid of Trump no matter what the cost.

The Democrats will not have to hide their intentions, as its natural for an opposing party to jettison the opposite parties, President. The establishment Republicans, however, have to walk a tightrope. Many are seeking reelection and Trump is the most popular President with the base than even Regan was.

To go against Trump is suicide politically for a Republican who has a strong primary challenge. So it will be the usual backstabbing underhanded dealings behind the scenes.

The best example of a tight rope walker is Grahm. All one has to do is go back and watch his questioning of Wray at the confirmation hearing. You would have thought Graham was in lockstep with McCain in removing Trump from office. And guess what, He was.

But the tide shifted and the Establishment Republican’s best-laid plans did not work out so well. And Grahm like a normal two-faced politician has now taken up the pro-Trump cause. Make no mistake, the only factor that has shifted is 2020 is rapidly approaching.

I started disliking Graham when he lead the charge against Bill Clinton and his removal from office. I was no fan of Clinton’s but I was also no fan of his removal at the hands of politicians that had done the same thing if not worse.

Graham, in my opinion, is the perfect example of what is wrong with DC. He takes money from Qatar, he obviously knew about the fake dossier at its inception, but now he says Trump and him are best of friends. That is DC.

I have no love lost for the establishment of either party. Both are corrupt beyond repair and both will not change.

So what is one to do? Its rather simple, the test for me is which party will do the least harm to the U.S. That has shifted from time to time. But at this point in time its clearly the Republicans that would cause the least harm.

The left has moved too far away from the center, for even many liberals. They have nothing but crazy ideas to run on as they have to spend 24/7 with fake attacks against a sitting President.

Now, they are not all to blame. Obama and Clinton set the stage. And no doubt it was tempting to come along for the ride. Afterall Clinton was a cinch to win in 2016. Should could not lose:) They had everyone in their back pocket, the intelligence agencies, the media, and the elites in both parties.

The one thing they did not have was the voter:) And they underestimated Trumps desire to win. Say what you will about Trump but he overcame all odds, with cunning and a sharp team. Voila, the silence was stunning when the results came in. And then it was sheer horror and panic in DC.

They had gone over the line, committed crimes against the government and the people, and it was 24/7 coverup time. And it is still going on.

I will write more about Trump in another post. But let’s relate this to the stock market now.

The only reason this market is where it’s at now is because of the Trump administration. They got tax cuts passed by sheer will, as Ryan was not a willing participant. The cut in the massive regulations has done its job.

And Trump keeps focusing on the economy. Its 24/7 Jobs. Record unemployment for everyone, job wage growth for the first time in a long time and manufacturing coming back. Cities that were becoming ghost towns are on the mend.

From an investing standpoint its simple. If Trump goes down in 2020, you will see a fall in this market that will startle you. You would not have thought it possible. The reason is we will be back to regulations on steroids. There will be tax increases, Attacks on the oil and fracking industries.

The repercussions will be enormous. So, be ready to either hedge your portfolio with a Trump loss or get net short. It will be a once in a lifetime investing opportunity. There is a lot of time between now and 2020. Watch the betting odds, not the polls.

I will have more of a strategy as we approach the elections.

The jobs report came out, and so far the market reaction after a short dip has been positive. It looks to me like we are going to test the SPY highs of 302.20 before we get any kind of correction. Of course, this is absent news from China or Congress:)

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

0

Another 1% gap up, China, Congress, and the NFL. My thoughts.

Another 1% gap up for the markets this morning about 30 min before the open.

The numbers are a bit different than yesterday. @CL is +.11% and Vix.x is -4.21%. Both much lower than yesterday. However, TLT is -1.25%.

That, in my opinion, offsets the other two so that most likely we at least get a hold on the gap today. Watch Vix .x, if it gets in the -8% range we most likely will be off to the races today.

Much of the news propelling this is China Trade. Recently the news has been positive. The problem is we are not privy to what is really going on, but its the appearance rather than the reality that moves the markets in many cases.

Another thing resistance in SPY was at 294.04. We were in a trading range for about a month. It looks like we are going to break out to the upside with SPY sitting at 296.83 right now. What you want to watch is the follow-through.

In other words, do we hold the breakout, or reverse back below 294.04 this week. My thought is it’s more likely we reverse back. The news flow on China has been a roller coaster. Congress is coming back, and that will in all likely hood spook the markets. One thing about Congress is they are a very reliable source of chaos these days:)

I have on a number of swing trades right now, and will most likely be managing them. As far as new trades, I will be very selective right here.

The NFL starts tonight! I am in the Westgate Supercontest again this season and will be posting my usual rundowns on Sunday morning on this site. Subscribers, get my 5 picks after 11:00 on Sat. Also, I have sent out 2 plays this weekend in the NFL.

The entries in the contest is approaching the 3,000 mark. To win it you will need over 70%. To cash over 60%. Let’s see if I can get some positive variance this year. On an EV year in and year out, betting the NFL, 54 to 55% is the best you can hope for long term. The books are pretty sharp putting out NFL lines.

Contrary the public is where the value is usually. As they keep the lines at a spot where there is value. It used to be much better, but the “sharps” have changed the landscape a bit. It’s not as easy as it used to be:)

While many handicapping services come and go, at 10x the price of my subscription, mine has stayed solid over the years producing positive EV plays consistently.

If you have ever sat at the poker table with me you know that I am a pretty conservative gambler:) I pretty much play a % game with a few twists. But overall it is a positive EV play. That is the way I approach sports handicapping and the markets.

If you have an interest take a look at the post and send me an email if you have any questions.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

1

+ – 300 pt markets, China, USMCA, Walmart and politics. My thoughts.

The question I get asked the most in markets like this is how do you survive. With daily swings + or – 300 pts how can swing trading be profitable?

First, there are a lot of things to swing trade in the universe:) And many are not correlated to the general market direction.

Second, when volatility increases, its time to abandon your bad habits that crept in when the markets were going straight up. It’s like running good in poker, you would be amazed at the bad habits that poker players develop. Then when the fortunes of variance disappear, many are in shock when what once worked does not anymore.

In other words, the entire point of it all is not to look at trading, poker-playing or sports betting as something unique. It does require skills, but they all are subject to the fickle winds of chance. You are an arena where nothing is a sure thing. The best you can do is carve out an edge.

And as the saying goes “If you do not know what your edge is, you do not have one”.

But let us say your one of the few that have an edge. You still are not out of the woods. The killer variance is still lurking. And a killer it is. I have seen the best poker players in the world go busted because they do not respect variance. Not only do they go busted, but they also stay busted.

When chance enters into the equation, and you’re risking your money on probabilities, variance is always at play. No exceptions!

It comes down to methodology, money management, and discipline. You have to have all three mastered before you can begin to make money. And each one of the three is no pushover to get mastered.

I have always said that human nature will attempt to sabotage your success in games of chance. Its something you will have to fight every step of the way. Because human nature, with few exceptions, runs contrary to being successful in games of chance.

As an example, put Spock up against someone like Beto in a game of chance, and Spock will win every time:)

So now back to the original question. How do you win in markets like this, swing trading? You adjust and you learn. And more importantly, you understand the arena you are in. The arena I have just talked about.

That is my Tuesday morning diatribe:) After a sold down day yesterday, we find ourselves with the markets set to open up almost 1% today. TLT is -1/4%, @CL is +1.45% and Vix.x is -8.65%.

This is a very strong premarket. Its one in which you look for gap continuation trades not gap fill trades. Now we are an hour before the open and this assumes the numbers do not change much.

Every once in awhile I notice a shorting opportunity in companies where they decide to become SJWs. Dicks sporting goods was an excellent example. They have never recovered.

But now a new unexpected one has arisen. One who the FBI heads said you could smell the Trump supporters that frequented their stores.

Walmart, the last company you would have expected to get into the SJW arena, has now entered the fray on the side that 90% of its customers are against. They have decided that the left’s position on gun control is reasonable and are taking actions in support of the left on this issue.

This will not sit well with Walmart’s customer base. Walmart is trading at all-time highs and is +1% premarket this morning. If you short here you will most likely have some short term pain. You could buy far out puts. I am going to look this morning, but I would guess a year out is where you want to be.

The numbers will not show up right away in Walmart. But, watch around the next earnings report, and then the one after that will most likely be the one that will shock people.

Walmart used to be for the heart of America. They became successful in Small rural areas. As we know the left has no love for them. Its most likely going to be brutal before it is over.

Some things to watch for in the next month: Congress will be back in session. So the mayhem and chaos will most likely begin again the day they get back. Expect impeachment talk to be front and center.

The trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is dead in the water in the House. Politics will kill that, they are not going to give Trump that win. Odds, 8 to 1 against it getting through the House in a form that is viable. They may pass it, but it will have a poison pill in it.

China, I do not expect a China deal. China will be doing everything it can to make sure Trump goes down in 2020. They are staking their economy on it. Instead of a deal, they are betting on Trump’s defeat. Then it will be business as usual.

Last but not least, we have the IG FISA report, Durham and Huber. There are some very bright people that are expecting a large swath of indictments coming soon. Most at this point are disappointed it has not happened yet, and some are gleeful they have won this battle.

Myself, its a tough prediction for me on this one. Knowing the degree of corruption in DC, and that if a proper job were done indictments would most likely take out many in Congress on both sides, let alone former intelligence heads and even Obama and his henchmen.

I read Barr as competent, but someone that will not burn DC to the ground, even though it may be time to do that. (figuratively speaking of course):)

So that is a wait and see. But, all of this means is that volatility is not going away anytime soon.

While many handicapping services come and go, at 10x the price of my subscription, mine has stayed solid over the years producing positive EV plays consistently.

If you have ever sat at the poker table with me you know that I am a pretty conservative gambler:) I pretty much play a % game with a few twists. But overall it is a positive EV play. That is the way I approach sports handicapping and the markets.

If you have an interest take a look at the post and send me an email if you have any questions.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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