Investing - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Short put sales are now 93.23% winners with a profit factor of 4.67!!! My morning missive and other thoughts on the markets for Wedn Morning

Facebook is another although it’s not as obvious as Twitter at least from a logical standpoint.
But it just touched the 200 day MA a few days ago and is bouncing off it now. This is another stock to watch to short for a longer-term hold
Let me add one thing as to the capital violence we saw on the 6th. Violence is never the answer. Violence begets more violence.
The entire foundation of society is peaceful protests if you disagree with something. Or get out and vote. This idea that violence is going to change anything is plain wrong. All it does is make things much worse.
From an investing standpoint, widespread violence causes havoc on the markets. Not only from the violence itself but the reaction to the violence, as we will soon see.
Looking over my short put and call sales this morning, all look fine. Not much to manage right now. I am scouring for more income trades as those right now are solid income producers while we are doing our other trading.
Mean reversion right now is not in play as the markets are not oversold.
We are at a place today where we have a number of longer-term income trades, no mean reversion trades, and a handful of short put and short call trades,
Tomorrow is short put sale day:)  I will be scanning for candidates after the close today. These have been as solid as you will find in a  trading method.
We are up to 251 trades with 234 winners and 17 losers.
This is my morning comments this morning to subscribers of RickJ’s Sports Plays. I added my trades as a value-added
addition to my sports handicapping service, as I have found many serious sports bettors also trade the markets.
I have been doing this now for almost a year now with my morning remarks, along with sending out most of my trades I make via slack.
I will have more on my trading techniques later but they fall into a few categories: 1. Income trades via discounted CEFs 2. Mean reversion trades 3. Income trades via short puts and short calls 4. swing trades

If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Slack: RickJinvest

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A 2-0 day in college hoops Wednesday, free week free access to my slack trading account, Short put option sale. My thoughts for a Thursday morning

On Wedn we had two Ncaa BB plays and both were easy winners.

VMI +6 only lost by 2 and Mass +3 won the game outright.

Today I have a full slate of NCAA BB, NHL and NBA games to handicap along with the upcoming NFL games this weekend.

On the trading side of things, we put on 3 short put sales this morning that will expire at the close tomorrow. These are income trades with a very high margin of safety and a high annual rate of return.

Since posting these 2-day short put trades I have had 246 trades. 229 winners and 17 losers with a win rate of 93.09%. The profit factor is 4.27. That is a solid performance so far out of a method I came up with while sports was offline.

I put all my trades out on slack along with my sports picks.

If you have an interest in the trading side of things feel free to email me and I will sign you up for a 1 week free trial to the trading side of slack.

Subscribers for only $49.00 a month get access to both sides, trading and sports picks.

To give you  an idea of my morning message to subscribers, here is the one I sent out this morning:

If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.

 

RickJ

https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com

https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Slack: Rickjinvest

Twitter: rickjsportplays

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Wedn 1/13/21 morning pre-market comments with breakdown of positions

All of our call and put sales are looking fine. FUBO has taken off to the upside at 39.02 this morning. This means we are most likely to collect the 710 call premium on Friday and will be out of the stock at break even. We will have collected 710+150+1530 or 2390.00 in option premiums and will be out of the stock at break even. Not a bad trade

ABUS is trading at 4.15 right now which gives us a 300.00 profit after we collect the 1060 call premium on Friday, assuming that is where it is trading. So, we will have to wait and see where we stand on Friday and Monday

CBAT short put expires 1/15th with a 5.00 strike price so its looking like an easy 420.00 pickup after the close on Friday as the stock is trading at 7.38

Root is another similar to CBAT where the strike is 15.00 and it is trading at 19.53. A pickup of 380.00 on Friday

Vuzi is just below the strike price of 9.00 at 8.95. We will pick up 380.00 after Friday on the short puts. then we will see where the stock price is. On these last 3 we will look at perhaps shorting more puts if the premium is high as I like all three stocks. But on Vuzi we have a gain as our basis is 9.00-.38 or 8.62.

All of the positions are looking great right now

The income trades are solid. What you want to watch on these is the 200 day MA. If high yield goes south then you have to reconsider this approach. Right now, hi yield has been solid

In most of the income trades, we have a nice capital gain along with earning between 5 to 10% on the investment

This approach I am using to investing has taken a while to develop, but it is working out very well for me right now. The swings are minimal (so far), and it has been just plain solid

Risks in the market have not changed, most are political risks as opposed to economic risks right now. I do not expect these to subside anytime soon but to get much worse over the next year or so

This means you have to have objective measures to quantify when it’s time to hedge or lighten up a bit

I will be around most of this morning if anyone has any questions

RickJ

Rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Slack: RickJInvest

Twitter: rickjsportplays

 

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Today’s morning market comments to subscribers sent 20 min before the open

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Sports handicapping Season to date records, a unique opportunity selling put options, a review of some of my trading techniques. My thoughts for a Tuesday morning

College football is over this season with a high scoring championship game Alabama 52 Ohio State 24.

I put the game out at a pass at -9 as I could see no edge on the game. A lot of people loved Alabama here, even my great contrarian indicators were right on this one:)

Our Record in NCAA FB this season was:

Season to Date Sides: 21-24

Season to Date Totals: 9-4

Combined Season to date: 30-28

We started out strong in college football, withered in midseason, and picked up a few units toward the end with a 3 or 4 game win streak. Overall an uneventful college football season.

We are also winding down in NFL Football.

We had one play last weekend on Washington +8 and it was a push. So far I have not sent out any plays to Subscribers for the upcoming games.

The NFL this season has been solid. 

Season to Date Sides: 17-7-2 or 70.1%

Season to Date Totals: 7-7

Combined Season to date: 24-14-2 or 63.15%

I will take that every year:)

We are in the heart of college hoops right now and we have been hovering around the even mark so far this season. No swings either way.

Season to Date Sides: 11-14

Season to Date Totals: 5-5

Combined Season to Date: 16-19

Still, a lot more college hoops left, including March Madness.

For subscribers, I break down every college game that includes a top 25 team. This is a road map using some of the

various things I look at when handicapping games. Some of the things I include are model projections, Variables, and public %

numbers. In addition on some games, I give comments on anything I see that I think is interesting on the game.

Also as a subscriber, you are free to ask me about any game, as I handicap them all. Most of the communications are now on my slack channels.

If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.

A new feature of my handicapping service is I post my stock and option trades to subscribers. This is what I trade during the day. I put it out there to give subscribers ideas as opposed to suggesting they take these trades. Everyone has to invest how they see fit based upon their analysis. But hopefully, you get to take some ideas away and learn some investing techniques.

My trades are broken down into 1. Income trades that typically are closed-end fund trades trading at a substantial discount to NAV and also have an annual income of between 5 and 10 percent a year. These tend to be longer-term trades as I am trading for income as a primary goal, and capital appreciation secondary.

2. #Meanreversion: These consist of buying in an oversold market under very strict parameters. Some of the features of these trades are they have no stop and tend to have rather large swings. But overall they tend to have a positive EV. Enough to put them in my investment routine. I have been trading these for years.

3. Short term swing trades: These are typically 3 or 4-day trades where I feel the stock is ripe for a bounce. The stock does not have to be oversold for me to make this trade, as in mean reversion.

4. #Shortput and #coveredcall: These are techniques I researched when sports betting was down completely. The covered calls tend to be used primarily to manage short put stocks where I have taken delivery of the stock. The short puts on the other hand consist of two types of trades:

A. for income, made on Thursday and expire at the close the next day. They usually have the following characteristics. A High annual rate of return, at least 20% from the strike price, no earnings announcements coming up for the two days of the trade.  I have a screen I use for these and it is very strict in how I come up with my basket to trade on Thursday morning. Here is a chart of my trades since I started posting the short put sales:

As you can see these have been solid trades. 246 trades to date with 229 winners and 17 losers with a win rate of 93.09% and a profit factor of 4.27.

One thing to note is the drawdowns. We had one drawdown around trade 136 but quickly recovered. That is the mark of a good trading methodology.

All my subscribers can get access to these trades as part of the handicapping service.

If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.

In addition each morning on slack I give a premarket rundown on what I expect in the trading for the day, along with a review of the trades we have outstanding.

I have come a long way from 15 years ago when I started this site:) I have many subscribers that have been with me from the start.  I still have ideas for improving the site and slack has helped a lot allowing interaction between subscribers during the ball games.

My goal is not only to produce positive EV plays but to keep subscribers out of trouble. I have been doing this online for over 20 years now!!!

As you know gamblers have a propensity to get in trouble, I was once one of them:)  That is why I try to educate as much as I try to produce winning plays.

Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Slack: Rickjsports
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