Investing - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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April MLB Overnight Results are in, with updated results on short put trades.

April results are now behind us in MLB and here is the monthly tally:

Overnight Sides: with additional stats  (April)
20-22   + .13 (.003% ROI)
Advantage to closing line
+6.90 per game over closing line  31-8-3 (79.48%)
Top to Bottom swing to date 5.48 (+2.98/-2.50)

A few things to note:

The top to bottom swing in April was very small. Wagering on 42 games in April produced only a top to bottom swing of 5.48 units.

In addition, we broke about even with the overnight sides. But the takeaway is we beat the closing line 79.48% of the time. As long as we keep this up I suspect we will like the final tally at the end of the season. We beat the closing line by 6.90 on average per game.

The first two days of May we had 4 plays and went 2-2 for +.15 Units. The big stat is we beat the closing line in all 4 by a wide margin…. +17.75 per game!!!

In May I had my first regular-season total that lost, but these will be picking up and have been solid year in and year out. So expect more of these as we progress into the MLB season.

Monday afternoon I sent out 4 overnight MLB Side plays for today.

Moving on to my trading that I added to subscribers for no additional cost. I use Slack to send out most of my trades that I make during the trading day. I provide both my entry price and my exit price.

The best performer of all of these has been my 2-day short put sales. I typically place these on Thursday morning shortly after the market opens and they expire the next day after the close.

Since posting these I have had 302 trades with 284 winners and 18 losers. This is a 94.04% win rate. The profit factor on these trades is 3.83%

 

As you can see the drawdowns have been minimal.

Other categories of trades I make are Income trades consisting mostly of CEF’s that have a reasonable return and are below NAV, Mean Reversion Trades, and shorting puts in stocks I would not mind owning at a lower price.

The latter so far has been the riskiest. I manage the later trades selling calls if I happen to get the put exercised.

In addition to sending out my trades, each morning I have pre-market comments before the market opens. Here is this mornings:

All in all there is a lot of value in RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

At only 49.00 per month, you get all the sports plays I make, in addition to my stock and option trades.

All of my records on all sports are kept current on Slack and updated daily. 100% transparency like I have been doing the last 20 years. Time certainly goes by quickly. It seems like just yesterday I started this site. And now here we are almost 20 years later.

If you wish to join us,  use the PayPal dropdown menu on this site. All options have a 3-day free trial. 

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Twitter: rick_sports

Slack: Rickjsports

Slack: RickJInvest

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Superbowl Sunday, my analysis, my value added services to my service. My thoughts for a Sunday morning

Superbowl Sunday is finally here with KC matching up with TB.

First, let’s start out with This season’s record for my plays in the NFL:

Season to Date Sides:  17-8-2 or 68%

Season to Date Totals: 8-7  or 53.33%

Combined Season to Date: 25-15-2 or 62.5%

If you are laying -110 on these picks you would be +8.5 Units for the NFL Season.

Not a lot of plays, but it was a very steady NFL season with virtually no drawdown.  I will take these results every year:)

As those of you that have been following me for the last 12+ years I have been online, the NFL has been as steady a sport for me as you will find. While most struggle every year in the NFL, for some reason I find it the easiest to handicap.

All my past year records are available either here on this site, On slack, or on Google sheets. If anyone has any interest in all my past records just send me an email and I will provide them for you if you cannot find them.

So that brings us to today’s Superbowl.

Every season I give the caveat that you do not have to wager on the game. I look at it as one game of many. Unless you are a fan, which I am, as a gambler you only make wagers if you feel you have an edge.

That is the purpose of handicapping, to try to determine if there is a positive EV wager on a game.

No two handicappers have the same methods. Some use an analysis of the player matchups, some use external variables, many use a combination of techniques.

One thing is certain in all of this. While handicappers may share their picks, the good handicappers will not share their methodology. This is something they have generated over many years of hard work.

I have been handicapping now for over 40 years:)  I can tell you when it comes to handicapping sports nothing is static. What worked 5 years ago most likely does not work well now. So you have to constantly evaluate your methods and adjust when needed. It is time-consuming and requires a substantial amount of knowledge of various handicapping methods. Including the ability to develop your own methods that few handicappers use.

Years ago I wrote a 2+2 article named ” A Technique to improve your handicapping results”.

You can find the article at https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/about-2-2/

or you can go to Two Plus Two Magazine Vol 7, No. 12 and read it there.

But much of what I wrote years ago still has some significance today. I typically do not write articles, but a poker player who I became friends with worked for 2 +2 and asked me to write an article for them as he followed some of my handicapping.

Now, let’s start my analysis of today’s game:

Let me start out by saying as I always do every Superbowl, that you do not have to wager on this game. Most bettors feel some compulsion not only to wager on it
but also to wager more than they typically do over the season. It is similar to poker players who play 8/16 Omaha 8 all year round trying to grind out
a few 100 a day. But then the world series rolls around, and you see the same players in the 75/150 Omaha 8 game. It’s the same mindset. What they have
done is essentially have their entire year depend on how they do in 4 to 5 weeks of 75/150  after spending the other 47 weeks playing 8/16.
Saying that let’s look at the game to see if I see something worth betting on here. The models lean toward TB. Of course, at +3.5 there would
have been enough EV to wager on the game. At +3 your edge if you have one is so slight its not worth betting. Remember the lower the edge
the higher the variance. The variables lean even less to TB than the models. The public % edge is absent. At 41% on a +3 game, there is
no edge. And there is no line move edge as the line has stayed pretty steady on this game. I look at Cris for that number. Pinnacle’s line
comes out after Cris. You want to use the book that puts out the line first for that.
As far as the Total I do not see any value at all in the total. No leans either way on that wager.
Myself, I will not be betting the game. At least as the numbers stand right now. If the line were to move to +3.5 I will take another look
at the game.
Now I know some of you are going to ask why I did not take +3.5 when it was available. The way I handicap most sports is I look at a
number of things that move around right up until game time. So I did not know what all the numbers were going to be weeks ago.
Good luck whatever you decide to do on this game.    Rick

This is what I sent out to subscribers to my service earlier.

As a subscriber, you get access to all of my handicapping picks, which covers the NFL, NCAAFB, NCAABB, NBA, NHL, and WNBA. In addition, you get access to my political odds picks along with where I think there is value in the political odds arena.

I also added another aspect to my handicapping service. As I am an active trader I share most of my trades with subscribers.

These trades include Mean reversion trades, swing trades, income trades and options trades. The option trades are restricted to selling puts and calls for income.

When sports betting was shut down completely I started doing some research on a short put selling technique where you would sell a put that expired after the close the next day. These trades are made on Thursday morning and either expire Friday after the close or you take delivery of the stock if it closes below the strike price. (which rarely happens)

Since I started sharing these with subscribers this is a graph of those trades:

As you can see there have been 265 trades with a 93.58% win rate and a profit factor of 4.57

A few things to note on these is that most have annualized returns of over 40% and the drawdown has been minimal.

We had a brief consolidation around trade 81 and pulled out of it around trade 110 and then had our only drawdown around trade 143 and recovered it all by trade 172. Other than that it has been virtually straight up.

It’s rare to find a trading method as consistent as this. Although, We are only looking at 265 trades. I suspect we will be over 500 trades by year-end and will have a better picture of whether these numbers are going to hold up.

Now These short puts are only those I sell on Thursday for Friday expiration. There are other short put sales I make where I would not mind owning the stock at the strike price. These typically are 1 month out short put trades.

Since posting these trades I have only made 8 closed trades with 7 winners and 1 loser for a profit factor of 11.85. I have at last count 4 or 5 of these trades pending right now for expiration Feb 19th. All are far away from the strike price.

In addition, they all produce annualized returns of over 40% if they expire.

The mean reversion trades I have posted have a 70.83% win rate with a profit factor of 6.34.

So far I have posted 24 of these types of trades.

Many of my subscribers have found this to be a very valuable addition to the service.

Here is the graph of the mean reversion trades:

All in all, I would put my service up against any other for value. While most charge 4 figures for one sport in a lump sum that is non-refundable. I charge only $49.00 a month which you are free not to renew at the end of each monthly period.

This price has been constant now for the last 10 years with no increases, despite the fact I keep adding value to the service.

If you wish to give it a try you can go to the drop-down menu and subscribe via the PayPal button and get a 3-day free trial, or you can subscribe via this link with no free trial.

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Once you sign up I will have you up and going within minutes:) Hope to see you join us for the rest of the NCAABB season including March Madness along with the NBA and NHL.

RickJ

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Twitter: rickjsportplays

Slack: rickjsports

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Short put sales are now 93.23% winners with a profit factor of 4.67!!! My morning missive and other thoughts on the markets for Wedn Morning

Facebook is another although it’s not as obvious as Twitter at least from a logical standpoint.
But it just touched the 200 day MA a few days ago and is bouncing off it now. This is another stock to watch to short for a longer-term hold
Let me add one thing as to the capital violence we saw on the 6th. Violence is never the answer. Violence begets more violence.
The entire foundation of society is peaceful protests if you disagree with something. Or get out and vote. This idea that violence is going to change anything is plain wrong. All it does is make things much worse.
From an investing standpoint, widespread violence causes havoc on the markets. Not only from the violence itself but the reaction to the violence, as we will soon see.
Looking over my short put and call sales this morning, all look fine. Not much to manage right now. I am scouring for more income trades as those right now are solid income producers while we are doing our other trading.
Mean reversion right now is not in play as the markets are not oversold.
We are at a place today where we have a number of longer-term income trades, no mean reversion trades, and a handful of short put and short call trades,
Tomorrow is short put sale day:)  I will be scanning for candidates after the close today. These have been as solid as you will find in a  trading method.
We are up to 251 trades with 234 winners and 17 losers.
This is my morning comments this morning to subscribers of RickJ’s Sports Plays. I added my trades as a value-added
addition to my sports handicapping service, as I have found many serious sports bettors also trade the markets.
I have been doing this now for almost a year now with my morning remarks, along with sending out most of my trades I make via slack.
I will have more on my trading techniques later but they fall into a few categories: 1. Income trades via discounted CEFs 2. Mean reversion trades 3. Income trades via short puts and short calls 4. swing trades

If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Slack: RickJinvest

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A 2-0 day in college hoops Wednesday, free week free access to my slack trading account, Short put option sale. My thoughts for a Thursday morning

On Wedn we had two Ncaa BB plays and both were easy winners.

VMI +6 only lost by 2 and Mass +3 won the game outright.

Today I have a full slate of NCAA BB, NHL and NBA games to handicap along with the upcoming NFL games this weekend.

On the trading side of things, we put on 3 short put sales this morning that will expire at the close tomorrow. These are income trades with a very high margin of safety and a high annual rate of return.

Since posting these 2-day short put trades I have had 246 trades. 229 winners and 17 losers with a win rate of 93.09%. The profit factor is 4.27. That is a solid performance so far out of a method I came up with while sports was offline.

I put all my trades out on slack along with my sports picks.

If you have an interest in the trading side of things feel free to email me and I will sign you up for a 1 week free trial to the trading side of slack.

Subscribers for only $49.00 a month get access to both sides, trading and sports picks.

To give you  an idea of my morning message to subscribers, here is the one I sent out this morning:

If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.

 

RickJ

https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com

https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Slack: Rickjinvest

Twitter: rickjsportplays

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Wedn 1/13/21 morning pre-market comments with breakdown of positions

All of our call and put sales are looking fine. FUBO has taken off to the upside at 39.02 this morning. This means we are most likely to collect the 710 call premium on Friday and will be out of the stock at break even. We will have collected 710+150+1530 or 2390.00 in option premiums and will be out of the stock at break even. Not a bad trade

ABUS is trading at 4.15 right now which gives us a 300.00 profit after we collect the 1060 call premium on Friday, assuming that is where it is trading. So, we will have to wait and see where we stand on Friday and Monday

CBAT short put expires 1/15th with a 5.00 strike price so its looking like an easy 420.00 pickup after the close on Friday as the stock is trading at 7.38

Root is another similar to CBAT where the strike is 15.00 and it is trading at 19.53. A pickup of 380.00 on Friday

Vuzi is just below the strike price of 9.00 at 8.95. We will pick up 380.00 after Friday on the short puts. then we will see where the stock price is. On these last 3 we will look at perhaps shorting more puts if the premium is high as I like all three stocks. But on Vuzi we have a gain as our basis is 9.00-.38 or 8.62.

All of the positions are looking great right now

The income trades are solid. What you want to watch on these is the 200 day MA. If high yield goes south then you have to reconsider this approach. Right now, hi yield has been solid

In most of the income trades, we have a nice capital gain along with earning between 5 to 10% on the investment

This approach I am using to investing has taken a while to develop, but it is working out very well for me right now. The swings are minimal (so far), and it has been just plain solid

Risks in the market have not changed, most are political risks as opposed to economic risks right now. I do not expect these to subside anytime soon but to get much worse over the next year or so

This means you have to have objective measures to quantify when it’s time to hedge or lighten up a bit

I will be around most of this morning if anyone has any questions

RickJ

Rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Slack: RickJInvest

Twitter: rickjsportplays

 

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