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MLB April and May results along with combined season to date results now posted. MLB is now free for all!!!!

May is behind us so we have two months now of MLB using the new MLB data base.

And as expected, there are bright spots and not so bright spots:)

First lets look at the Overnight Sides:

In April:

Sides: 28-22 +9.02 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +9.02)

50 plays, top to bottom swing of 13.52 units and we ended up +9.02 Units for the month. Cannot ask much more from a new data base then that:)

 

In May:

Sides: 21-26 -.14 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.93 to +3.21)

47 Plays for -.14 units with a top to bottom swing of 8.14 units. 

The top to bottom swing remained tame, the number of plays about the same, but we treaded water in May.

 

Putting the two months together:

Sides: 50-48 +9.83 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +12.18)

98 plays, +9.83 units won, and a top to bottom swing of 16.68 units

You will note first that the two months do not add up:) That is a result of my haphazard cross checking. I typically do this manually, and very early in the morning.

So the numbers are going to be off a bit, and the time going back to cross check everything is not worth it.

But the tenor of the results for the first two months is solid. The ROI is 10% which I will take on any method I have.

The other metric I check is how often do we beat the closing line. Remember these are put out the day before.

 

In April:

Sides line bet to closing line : 31-17   241 +5.02 better than closing line per game

A 64.5% rate of beating the closing line at the rate of 5.02 per game. That is a solid rate but I would like to see the difference higher.

In May:

Sides line bet to closing line : 29-13-5   158  +3.36  better than closing line per game

In May we went down to 55% with a rate of 3.36. So both the % of beating the closing line and the rate declined. Which might account for the decrease in units won. 

But most likely you cannot draw any conclusions from  that.

Bottom line: Sides is acting similar to my backtests. And that is a good thing. If this keeps up we have a viable system for next year on the overnight Sides.

That brings us to the overnight totals:(

April:  Totals 1-5 -4.40 

May: Totals 6-11 -6.00

Not a good sign so far on these. And this is in spite of the fact that we beat the closing total line 16-1-6!!!

So, bottom line, its a bit early to tell on the overnight totals. The beating the closing line is a good sign the units lost is not.

Lets see what June brings us on these.

Remember MLB is FREE!!! The use of the new database made me decide it would not be right to charge subscribers as its an unproven real time database I am using. So I made my entire email list along with my Slack channels free for those that wanted to follow along this MLB season. All subscribers were put on pause until the beginning of the NCAA FB Season.

Then it will be back to normal for subscriptions.

During the free MLB season you get not only access to all my plays which include MLB along with any other sport during that time, but also my slack channels.

These were a new addition the last few years. They give you the opportunity to provide input, discussion, ask questions and also if you have an interest follow my stock and option trading.

I have been trading for many years. My trading is as methodical as my handicapping. I include option trades, mean reversion trades , swing trades, income trades with an approach to medium term trading. On occasion I will take an intraday trade.

The one new trading technique I now use every week is my two day short put sale. I developed this during the Covid lockdowns and it has turned out to be one of my most successful trading techniques.

I have posted 438 trades, with a win rate of 94.29% and a profit factor of 2.40. Until recently the drawdowns have been tame. However, trade 392 brought us our biggest drawdown, and we have regained 80% of the drawdown since then. Our 40-0 run has helped:)

These are put out on Thursday shortly after the market open, and expire Friday after the close. The idea is to sell premiums for income with a 2 day hold.

I have a screen I have developed, along with other parameters I use , both fundamental and technical, to decide where there is value in the premiums, with limited risk.

 

It is easy to get on board right now with us as I have made everything FREE until the first game of the NCAA FB season starts. Then its back to the $49.00 a month for everything. Which compared to other subscriptions services is a steal:)

As always I am available for questions. You need just email me at [email protected] And if you wish to sign up for the free MLB season, all you need do is make that request at [email protected] I will invite you to both of my slack channels and put you on the email list.

 

Hope to see you join us.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Two day short put sales, RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is free until NCAA FB for all

As you know by now all sports subscribers get access to my Slack channel that many of my real time stock and option trades are posted.

 

This feature has been much more popular then I anticipated and the interest is getting to a level that is equal to the handicapping side.

One of the trades I make weekly has been 2 day short put sales. I have a screen I use on Wednesday evening to come up with a basket

of stocks to consider for this method.

 

Then on Thursday shortly after the market opens, I look to see if there are any premiums to sell, that meet my requirement for Annualized ROI.

To date I have published 422 two day short put sale trades. 397 winners vs 25 losers. That is a win rate of 94.08% with a profit factor of 2.34.

 

The drawdowns have been pretty tame until trade #369 where my largest drawdown to date occurred. So far we have recovered about 60% of the

drawdown over the last 45 trades.

 

422 Trades are reaching a level that is significant. But of course the more trades the more the reliability of the results.

This is a rather conservative method, as the transaction ends Friday after the close.  The result is you either pocket the premium or

take delivery of the stock.

 

Some strategies in short put selling involve rolling it over to another month if you are underwater. Myself,  my preference is to take delivery of

the stock and sell calls against it. If the screening is good, then this approach is the way to go. When you roll, you add transaction costs, and give up EV typically.

 

Here is a post I made this morning on my chat channel to subscribers:

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RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is now Free for the MLB Season!!!!! Sign up now!!!

Starting April 1st, RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is a free service. This will last until the 1st NCAA FB Game

 

All you need to do is send me an email requesting that I add you to the service. I will then add you to my email list where I send out my roadmaps and plays. And also add you to my Slack channels where I post my plays, investment trades and also discussions regarding a variety of subjects.

 

I am doing this as I am using an entire different Database for MLB. It backtests well, but until we get a season of Real Time results behind it I will not charge for MLB.

 

Subscribers have all their subscriptions paused and they will pick up right where they left off when NCAA FB begins.

 

To join us just send me an email to [email protected] I will add you when I get your email.

 

MLB will go the usual way as it has in the past. Overnights sent out the day before and also regular plays sent out the day of the game. You will also get all plays on other sports I handicap during this time period.

 

This is the first time I have done this since starting my service some 20+ years ago.

 

Remember, all you need do is send me an email to [email protected] to become a subscriber. IT IS FREE!!!

 

If anyone has any questions feel free to ask.

 

RickJ

 

RickJ

 

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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March Madness is upon us! How to take advantage of a free MLB Season.

We finished the NFL season with a win in the Super bowl. Typically I do not have a wager but this year the dog looked reasonable to me at +4.

So for the NFL:

NFL 2021
Sides: 24-20
Totals:   4-1
Combined 28-21

And then 2-2 in post season play.

A good solid season.

We are getting ready to head into march madness and College hoops has been solid this season:

Sides 73-59-3
Totals 8-4
Totals 1st half 10-4-1
Combined 91-67-4 or 57.59%

162 wagers with a win rate of 57.59%. I will match that record with anyone.

Today so far we have 1 win already to add to that.

I expect March Madness to be no different as many of the variables I look at have accumulated enough samples to

determine which are significant enough to include in my handicapping.

It has paid off handsomely this season.

For those of you that sent me emails regarding wanting to sign up for MLB. I will add you for day 1 of MLB.

As you recall, starting day 1 for MLB my site will be free for everyone. That means you will have access to everything subscribers

had access to during the year, including my two slack accounts where the discussion is very active.

All you need to is send me an email requesting access and I will put you on the email list along with send out invites to Slack to [email protected]

 

Subscribers get:

  1. Overnight plays sent out typically late afternoon for the next days MLB
  2. Plays that develop during the day, in all sports that are active
  3. Access to my Slack investment room where I post most of my trades I make during the trading day.

These include: Mean Reversion Trades, Income Trades, Swing Trades, covered call trades,  value short put sales, and 2 day short put sales every Thursday morning

4. In addition you get a Pre Market Summary with charts to get ready for the trading day.

 

Plays are sent out via email and Slack.

In addition both Slack accounts have active discussions on a wide variety of subjects including handicapping.

Access will be free for everyone until the first day of college football, at that time everything will revert back to a

subscription based service.

 

Now if you wish to jump on board early, you have a month left of College hoops, which just happens to cover March Madness!!! Just

to to the PayPal menu on the first page or rickjshandicappingpicks.com. You can subscribe for the monthly for $49.00 at which time it will end just

when MLB begins.

This service has been active for over 20 years now:) Time does fly. Every year I add value to the service. The latest addition being Slack which allows me to communicate

more freely with subscribers. In addition, the investment side has been solid. Every subset of trades I make have been profitable.

Consider taking advantage of not only March madness but also the never before offer of a Free subscription during MLB.  This is likely to be the only time

that offer will be made:)

As always if you have any questions or comments you can email me directly at [email protected]

Hope to see you on board for March Madness and if not, the MLB season

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Superbowl Sunday with season to date records and observations

I have not posted in awhile as most of my posting is done with my subscribers on Slack.  This morning, however, seems like a good time to give my Superbowl observations along with my updated records to date on current sports active.

In addition, I have different plans for MLB this season. As most of you know I have been running a 50% refund if I do not have a winning season in MLB. It was a very popular Special. And the first several years I had winning seasons, thanks to the overnight plays. Then the last two years I have had losing seasons.

I did an analysis and completely revamped my overnight methods to where I am optimistic for the coming season. Even with the two losing seasons I easily beat the closing price on the games. But still did not come out with a profit.

Since this will be the first season I will be using these new techniques, I am opening up RickJ’s Handicapping Picks for free to everyone, until the beginning of NCAA FB. Then it will revert back to a subscription only service.

This free subscription is identical to what paying subscribers get.  Plays sent out via my private twitter account, Access to my two slack accounts that have a wealth of information in them. They allow for interaction between subscribers on a wide variety of subjects. Also my stock and option picks are only released on slack , while sports picks you can get via twitter, email, and or slack.

To take advantage of this all you need do is wait until 1 day before opening day of MLB , that is the day I will begin adding anyone to my subscriptions for free. Meanwhile current subscribers have the option to pause their payments until opening day or get a pro rata refund. Either is fine with me.

Or you could just subscribe now and for only $49.00 a month get all my picks and trades. With College Hoops approaching March Madness it would be an excellent source of information to help with your handicapping.

Just go to the PayPal menu at rickjshandicappingpicks.com and subscribe. Its that easy. Then when MLB starts your subscription will be paused ready to begin again when day 1 of NCAA FB begins. March 31st is opening day with all the teams in action. So the free signup period begins on March 30th.

If anyone has any questions regarding this you can send me an email [email protected]

Now lets go through NCAA BB season to date:

Sides 60-49-3
Totals 8-4
Totals 1st half 7-4-1
Combined 75-57-4 or 56.81%

College hoops is having a great season. On Saturday with a full slate of games yesterday I could only come up with 3 plays, going 2-0-1.  College hoops after a slow start has been solid. Anything over 55% winners is suburb and we are at 56.81% heading into today.  I made a few adjustments over the off season like I normally do and they have paid off big time.

In the NBA:

NBA Season to date 2021 Season
Sides 8-7
1st half sides 2-0
Combined Season to date:10-7

As you can see not many plays. Covid and injuries has kept me away from playing the NBA except in certain situations.

NFL:

NFL 2021
Sides: 24-20
Totals:   4-1
Combined 28-21
Circa Contest
51-41    55.43%
My Bookie Contest
54-35-1  60.67%
All Spread Contest
Wk 1 9-8
Wk 2 9-6
Wk 3 7-9
Wk 4 7-8
Wk 5 7-9
Wk 6 6-8
wK 7 6-7
WK 8 8-7
WK 9 9-5
WK 10 10-4
WK 11  10-4
Wk 12  8-7
Wk 13 10-14
Wk 14 5-9
Wk 15 9-7
Wk 16 9-7
Wk 17 8-8
Wk 18 11-5
Combined all spread
143 129 52.57 %

I was in 3 contests this year. I switched over to Circa and went 51-41 or 55.43% for the season. Not good enough to cash but a solid performance
I also entered the Mybookie contest which had the same format as Circa:  54-35-1 or 60.67%!!!  But still not good enough to cash:(
And then I was in a contest where I pick every game against the spread going 143-129    52.57%. This was the lowest I have done since I started in this contest. Usually I am around the 55% mark.
For plays
A solid NFL Season.  With the Super bowl today and I do have a play on this game.
Then there is the NHL:
NHL Sides 1-7  -6.0
NHL Totals 2-2  -.15
Season to Date NHL  3-9
As you can see I have not been very active in the NHL. Money line sports has a very high variance compared to point spread sports. At least for me. So I have a few methods I use in the NHL but the number of bets its very hard to draw any conclusions.
All in all a very good sports betting season for sports in progress.
My investment side of the service has done extremely well. It is broken up into a variety of different trades. 1. Income trades 2. Mean Reversion trades 3. 2 day short put sale trades and now I am in the process of coming up with an option flow trade. The later is still in the works.
The two day  short put sales are made on Thursday with a Friday expiration. To date I have had 405 trades with 380 winners and 25 losers for a profit factor of 2.18 and a win rate of 93.83% . Up until trade 380 the drawdowns were quite low, but we had our biggest drawdown then and in the process of recovery at this moment.
The income trades are longer term trades and on avg produce about 8% a year in income through Closed end funds. We have had 56 trades to date with 48 winners and 8 losers or 85.71% win rate and a profit factor of 11.12%.   Most not only produce income but Capital gains when exiting.
Mean reversion trades consisted of 35 trades with 23 winners and 12 losers with a win rate of 65.71% and a profit factor of 1.60%   These are quite volatile:)
All of these trades are given to subscribers to RickJ’s Handicapping Picks via Slack
Now lets talk about the Superbowl:
On all NFL Games I send out a road map to help subscribers who handicap the game themselves and to give then an idea where I stand on the game.
The Road Map for todays Superbowl game is:
Rams            58                  -4    -4                    Model edge   Variable edge   Pub % edge
Cincy            42                  49    48.5                 Avg Edge            Avg Edge               No Edge +
So beginning 3/30 a day before opening day in MLB access to RickJ’s Handicapping Picks will be free for everyone until College football begins.  Just send me an email to [email protected] and I will have you signed up on 3/30. Or if you wish to be part of the service now to get the college hoop picks through march madness you can sign up the usual way through paypal on this site.
I am doing that as MLB is using an entire different method for my overnight picks. Myself I will be wagering around 1/4 a unit on these this season.  Lets see how MLB works out for  2022:)
Good Luck today in the SuperBowl
Rick
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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All services are free until NCAA FB !!!  2 day Stock Put sales  are making new equity highs weekly!!!

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