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Two day short put sales, RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is free until NCAA FB for all

As you know by now all sports subscribers get access to my Slack channel that many of my real time stock and option trades are posted.

 

This feature has been much more popular then I anticipated and the interest is getting to a level that is equal to the handicapping side.

One of the trades I make weekly has been 2 day short put sales. I have a screen I use on Wednesday evening to come up with a basket

of stocks to consider for this method.

 

Then on Thursday shortly after the market opens, I look to see if there are any premiums to sell, that meet my requirement for Annualized ROI.

To date I have published 422 two day short put sale trades. 397 winners vs 25 losers. That is a win rate of 94.08% with a profit factor of 2.34.

 

The drawdowns have been pretty tame until trade #369 where my largest drawdown to date occurred. So far we have recovered about 60% of the

drawdown over the last 45 trades.

 

422 Trades are reaching a level that is significant. But of course the more trades the more the reliability of the results.

This is a rather conservative method, as the transaction ends Friday after the close.  The result is you either pocket the premium or

take delivery of the stock.

 

Some strategies in short put selling involve rolling it over to another month if you are underwater. Myself,  my preference is to take delivery of

the stock and sell calls against it. If the screening is good, then this approach is the way to go. When you roll, you add transaction costs, and give up EV typically.

 

Here is a post I made this morning on my chat channel to subscribers:

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RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is now Free for the MLB Season!!!!! Sign up now!!!

Starting April 1st, RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is a free service. This will last until the 1st NCAA FB Game

 

All you need to do is send me an email requesting that I add you to the service. I will then add you to my email list where I send out my roadmaps and plays. And also add you to my Slack channels where I post my plays, investment trades and also discussions regarding a variety of subjects.

 

I am doing this as I am using an entire different Database for MLB. It backtests well, but until we get a season of Real Time results behind it I will not charge for MLB.

 

Subscribers have all their subscriptions paused and they will pick up right where they left off when NCAA FB begins.

 

To join us just send me an email to [email protected] I will add you when I get your email.

 

MLB will go the usual way as it has in the past. Overnights sent out the day before and also regular plays sent out the day of the game. You will also get all plays on other sports I handicap during this time period.

 

This is the first time I have done this since starting my service some 20+ years ago.

 

Remember, all you need do is send me an email to [email protected] to become a subscriber. IT IS FREE!!!

 

If anyone has any questions feel free to ask.

 

RickJ

 

RickJ

 

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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March Madness is upon us! How to take advantage of a free MLB Season.

We finished the NFL season with a win in the Super bowl. Typically I do not have a wager but this year the dog looked reasonable to me at +4.

So for the NFL:

NFL 2021
Sides: 24-20
Totals:   4-1
Combined 28-21

And then 2-2 in post season play.

A good solid season.

We are getting ready to head into march madness and College hoops has been solid this season:

Sides 73-59-3
Totals 8-4
Totals 1st half 10-4-1
Combined 91-67-4 or 57.59%

162 wagers with a win rate of 57.59%. I will match that record with anyone.

Today so far we have 1 win already to add to that.

I expect March Madness to be no different as many of the variables I look at have accumulated enough samples to

determine which are significant enough to include in my handicapping.

It has paid off handsomely this season.

For those of you that sent me emails regarding wanting to sign up for MLB. I will add you for day 1 of MLB.

As you recall, starting day 1 for MLB my site will be free for everyone. That means you will have access to everything subscribers

had access to during the year, including my two slack accounts where the discussion is very active.

All you need to is send me an email requesting access and I will put you on the email list along with send out invites to Slack to [email protected]

 

Subscribers get:

  1. Overnight plays sent out typically late afternoon for the next days MLB
  2. Plays that develop during the day, in all sports that are active
  3. Access to my Slack investment room where I post most of my trades I make during the trading day.

These include: Mean Reversion Trades, Income Trades, Swing Trades, covered call trades,  value short put sales, and 2 day short put sales every Thursday morning

4. In addition you get a Pre Market Summary with charts to get ready for the trading day.

 

Plays are sent out via email and Slack.

In addition both Slack accounts have active discussions on a wide variety of subjects including handicapping.

Access will be free for everyone until the first day of college football, at that time everything will revert back to a

subscription based service.

 

Now if you wish to jump on board early, you have a month left of College hoops, which just happens to cover March Madness!!! Just

to to the PayPal menu on the first page or rickjshandicappingpicks.com. You can subscribe for the monthly for $49.00 at which time it will end just

when MLB begins.

This service has been active for over 20 years now:) Time does fly. Every year I add value to the service. The latest addition being Slack which allows me to communicate

more freely with subscribers. In addition, the investment side has been solid. Every subset of trades I make have been profitable.

Consider taking advantage of not only March madness but also the never before offer of a Free subscription during MLB.  This is likely to be the only time

that offer will be made:)

As always if you have any questions or comments you can email me directly at [email protected]

Hope to see you on board for March Madness and if not, the MLB season

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Superbowl Sunday with season to date records and observations

I have not posted in awhile as most of my posting is done with my subscribers on Slack.  This morning, however, seems like a good time to give my Superbowl observations along with my updated records to date on current sports active.

In addition, I have different plans for MLB this season. As most of you know I have been running a 50% refund if I do not have a winning season in MLB. It was a very popular Special. And the first several years I had winning seasons, thanks to the overnight plays. Then the last two years I have had losing seasons.

I did an analysis and completely revamped my overnight methods to where I am optimistic for the coming season. Even with the two losing seasons I easily beat the closing price on the games. But still did not come out with a profit.

Since this will be the first season I will be using these new techniques, I am opening up RickJ’s Handicapping Picks for free to everyone, until the beginning of NCAA FB. Then it will revert back to a subscription only service.

This free subscription is identical to what paying subscribers get.  Plays sent out via my private twitter account, Access to my two slack accounts that have a wealth of information in them. They allow for interaction between subscribers on a wide variety of subjects. Also my stock and option picks are only released on slack , while sports picks you can get via twitter, email, and or slack.

To take advantage of this all you need do is wait until 1 day before opening day of MLB , that is the day I will begin adding anyone to my subscriptions for free. Meanwhile current subscribers have the option to pause their payments until opening day or get a pro rata refund. Either is fine with me.

Or you could just subscribe now and for only $49.00 a month get all my picks and trades. With College Hoops approaching March Madness it would be an excellent source of information to help with your handicapping.

Just go to the PayPal menu at rickjshandicappingpicks.com and subscribe. Its that easy. Then when MLB starts your subscription will be paused ready to begin again when day 1 of NCAA FB begins. March 31st is opening day with all the teams in action. So the free signup period begins on March 30th.

If anyone has any questions regarding this you can send me an email [email protected]

Now lets go through NCAA BB season to date:

Sides 60-49-3
Totals 8-4
Totals 1st half 7-4-1
Combined 75-57-4 or 56.81%

College hoops is having a great season. On Saturday with a full slate of games yesterday I could only come up with 3 plays, going 2-0-1.  College hoops after a slow start has been solid. Anything over 55% winners is suburb and we are at 56.81% heading into today.  I made a few adjustments over the off season like I normally do and they have paid off big time.

In the NBA:

NBA Season to date 2021 Season
Sides 8-7
1st half sides 2-0
Combined Season to date:10-7

As you can see not many plays. Covid and injuries has kept me away from playing the NBA except in certain situations.

NFL:

NFL 2021
Sides: 24-20
Totals:   4-1
Combined 28-21
Circa Contest
51-41    55.43%
My Bookie Contest
54-35-1  60.67%
All Spread Contest
Wk 1 9-8
Wk 2 9-6
Wk 3 7-9
Wk 4 7-8
Wk 5 7-9
Wk 6 6-8
wK 7 6-7
WK 8 8-7
WK 9 9-5
WK 10 10-4
WK 11  10-4
Wk 12  8-7
Wk 13 10-14
Wk 14 5-9
Wk 15 9-7
Wk 16 9-7
Wk 17 8-8
Wk 18 11-5
Combined all spread
143 129 52.57 %

I was in 3 contests this year. I switched over to Circa and went 51-41 or 55.43% for the season. Not good enough to cash but a solid performance
I also entered the Mybookie contest which had the same format as Circa:  54-35-1 or 60.67%!!!  But still not good enough to cash:(
And then I was in a contest where I pick every game against the spread going 143-129    52.57%. This was the lowest I have done since I started in this contest. Usually I am around the 55% mark.
For plays
A solid NFL Season.  With the Super bowl today and I do have a play on this game.
Then there is the NHL:
NHL Sides 1-7  -6.0
NHL Totals 2-2  -.15
Season to Date NHL  3-9
As you can see I have not been very active in the NHL. Money line sports has a very high variance compared to point spread sports. At least for me. So I have a few methods I use in the NHL but the number of bets its very hard to draw any conclusions.
All in all a very good sports betting season for sports in progress.
My investment side of the service has done extremely well. It is broken up into a variety of different trades. 1. Income trades 2. Mean Reversion trades 3. 2 day short put sale trades and now I am in the process of coming up with an option flow trade. The later is still in the works.
The two day  short put sales are made on Thursday with a Friday expiration. To date I have had 405 trades with 380 winners and 25 losers for a profit factor of 2.18 and a win rate of 93.83% . Up until trade 380 the drawdowns were quite low, but we had our biggest drawdown then and in the process of recovery at this moment.
The income trades are longer term trades and on avg produce about 8% a year in income through Closed end funds. We have had 56 trades to date with 48 winners and 8 losers or 85.71% win rate and a profit factor of 11.12%.   Most not only produce income but Capital gains when exiting.
Mean reversion trades consisted of 35 trades with 23 winners and 12 losers with a win rate of 65.71% and a profit factor of 1.60%   These are quite volatile:)
All of these trades are given to subscribers to RickJ’s Handicapping Picks via Slack
Now lets talk about the Superbowl:
On all NFL Games I send out a road map to help subscribers who handicap the game themselves and to give then an idea where I stand on the game.
The Road Map for todays Superbowl game is:
Rams            58                  -4    -4                    Model edge   Variable edge   Pub % edge
Cincy            42                  49    48.5                 Avg Edge            Avg Edge               No Edge +
So beginning 3/30 a day before opening day in MLB access to RickJ’s Handicapping Picks will be free for everyone until College football begins.  Just send me an email to [email protected] and I will have you signed up on 3/30. Or if you wish to be part of the service now to get the college hoop picks through march madness you can sign up the usual way through paypal on this site.
I am doing that as MLB is using an entire different method for my overnight picks. Myself I will be wagering around 1/4 a unit on these this season.  Lets see how MLB works out for  2022:)
Good Luck today in the SuperBowl
Rick
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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NFL Week 16, Circa NFL Picks, Week 15 Recap and Comments on Trading methods all posted

A 3-2 week in the Circa and My Bookie contest bringing my record in the contests to:

Circa: 40-35

My Bookie:  43-31-1

In the all spread contest where I pick every game vs the spread I went 9-7 bringing my record to 115-109.

I have had 2 plays so far in the first two going 1-1 winning with Cleveland and losing with Arizona. In the all spread I have a 2-1 week going this week.

I send out all my all spread picks to subscribers.

This week in the Circa contest my picks were:

Cleveland +7 (W)

Arizona +1   (L)

Carolina +10

Houston +10.5

Minn +3

In the Westgate NFL Contest the top 5 picks went 3-2 bringing their record to 35-39-1

Their picks this week are:

Miami

Cincy

Buff

Arizona (L)

Chargers

I was with them on Arizona which lost and I am fading them on Houston.

The 2 day short put sales just keep rolling in with winners every week. 2-0 last week and since I have been posting them 353-21 or 94.39% win rate with a profit factor of 3.94. The graph is virtually a trend line sloping sharply up with very little drawdown. Although that changed last week with a rather large loss in VIAC. I will update the numbers before Monday.

In addition, about 60 min before the market opens I give my comments along with a variety of graphs to not only give ideas on where the market might be going on that day, but also a discussion of bigger picture issues that have a direct correlation on where the market might go intermediate term.  They not only let me formulate my thoughts for the day, but provide help information for subscribers.

About a year ago I added to this service most of my trading that I make during the day. I included this as a 0 charge

addon to give extra value to the service for those that trade the markets.

My trades consist of a wide variety of methods, but most are in the following group:
1 Mean Reversion trades
2. Swing Trades medium term
3. Day trades (Not very many)
4. Income trades 
5. Short put income producing trades

By far the two most profitable have been since I started posting these are the income trades and the 2 day short put trades.

The 2 could not be any more different.  The 2 day short put trades I place on Thursday morning with a Friday expiration. They have several characteristics: 1. Carefully screened as to the underlying health of the stock I am trading the option on 2. A strike price that is 20 to 30 % of the stock price at the time I make the trade  3. No earnings for the next 7 days  4. Enough liquidity that there is no problem getting in and out of the trade.

In managing these, there are two rules of thought. The first is rolling it over if the price of the stock looks like it is going to close through the strike price or taking delivery of the stock and selling calls against it for income.  There is a trade off to these that you should be aware of. 1. You give up a lot of EV by rolling and at times your going to take a huge loss. 2. But the capital requirements are substantially less then the take delivery method.

My view is if you screened correctly the taking delivery and selling calls for income is the better approach. However, saying that the capital requirements can be rather large.  You need to be knowledgeable in this area to understand what I am saying. I am here to a
answer any questions regarding this. But my bottom line is if you have the capital taking delivery has the best return.

The Income trades revolve around Closed end funds trading at a discount to Net Asset Value.  The things they have in common is that most produce a rate of return in the 8% per year area, and most have a substantial discount to NAV when placed.  In addition as in the short put sales, I have a screen I use that gives me the best of the bunch to trade.

It has been as solid a performer as you can get with most of the trades producing not only 8% a year but also a nice capital gain when exiting the trade.

Since I started posting my 2 day short put trades I have had 367 trades, with a 346 -21 win rate or almost 95%. The profit factor on these is 3.86%. This is a very solid system, and as we get more trades under our belt the more confirmation there is as to the validity of the method.  Drawdowns have been minimal and when they happen it takes a very short time to make it back.

The income trades have produced 50 trades with 45 winners and 5 losers. That is a 90% win rate and a profit factor of 16.11 . Not near as many trades as the 2 day short put trades but very promising numbers.

To get an example of what good screening will do for you I had 4 short put sales last week. On Friday we had an 800 pt down move in the Dow, and yet none of my short put trades came close to the strike price.  That is when you know you are using excellent screening methods!!!

In addition about an hour before the open I post my pre market comments to subscribers on slack.

All my trading is put out only via Slack.

The cost of subscribing is only $49.00 a month. Considering that most handicapping and stock services charge many times more then that for just one sport, I would say this is one of the best values out there right now.

 

You have access to every one of the sports plays which now include college hoops that just started.

To subscribe all one needs to do is 1.go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com 2. select the paypal drop down menu on the first page 3. Select the monthly plan of 49.00 a month and follow the paypal prompts. I will have you added to the email list, slack channels and if you wish to my private twitter feed.

All of the subscription options have a 3 day free trial and if you decide later not to subscribe within the 3 days, you will not be charged. Other wise the service is a month to month service.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

 

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All services are free until NCAA FB !!!  2 day Stock Put sales  are making new equity highs weekly!!!

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