Indexes slightly lower, China trade deal, Schiff clown show, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday Morning.
The markets are slightly lower this morning with TLT + almost 1%. @Cl +3/4% vix.x +2.5%. To me, that is a slightly negative premarket configuration.
The news is more problems with the China trade deal. The positive was the clown show in the House. The markets are not concerned one bit about this impeachment show in the House. They will not get concerned unless the Senate starts taking it seriously.
I expect drama in the Senate, with the end result no conviction and a lot of posturing by the politicians. In addition, being a gambler 4 to 1 is not that big of a long shot. Considering the number of 1 outer you see every day, 51 to 1, it is not 100% that our crooked Republicans in the Senate do not convict Trump.
If it was a secret vote, he would lose by 1 vote. But an open vote, it is just a question of how crooked they are. And I assure you, there will be drama. The best bet I can see right now is to take the 18/82 odds with the idea of laying it off once you have a 20% or so profit on the wager. That is only if the bet is not on unless the House actually impeaches. Otherwise, it’s not worth wagering on.
I cannot tell from the rules on predictit.org what the rules are on that.
I do not have any swing trades on at present, just some income trades expiring this week and also my portfolio.
Let’s take a look at the political odds this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 44/56 -3 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 75/25 -1 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 16/84 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 79/21 No Change (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 41/59 -1 Pt
Warren: 17/83 – 2 Pts
Biden: 13/77 -1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 5/95 + 1 Pt
Clinton 5/95 No Change
LA Governor’s race 58/42 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) +3 PTS
KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 37/63 -3 Pts I laid 40/60
Not much change although the odds of conviction in the Senate keep slipping down. That is the number to watch.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks