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We are approaching a back to back +17 unit MLB Seasons Week 2 of the NFL Top 5 contest picks, Westgate top 5 picks all posted

As we are finishing with regular season MLB it appears that +17 units is in the cards. That means the 2nd season in a row of double digit gains on overnight sides. This is a welcome addition to our steady sports positive EV plays.

In the NFL last week we had 3 plays.

Arizona was an easy cover, Houston was not close, and then it came down to Indy +3.5. All was looking good with less than a min left. 2 and goal at the 1 yard line meant a very good chance at a cover:)  But two incomplete passes and an up the middle failed drive left Indy not covering the spread. Oh well:)

This week I have sent out one play.

My top 5 contest picks this week are:

Jacksonville +3.5
Arizona +5.5
Rams +8
Jets +9.5
Carolina +3

The Westgate Top 5 picks went 4-1 last week vs the spread. Typically you want to be fading these.

Atlanta  +1

Seattle   +5.5

New England  +3

Pitt   +2.5

Jets +9.5

The Bottom 5 picks in the Westgate

Minn +6 (Winner)

Phil   -6  (Lose)

Dallas -9.5

Wash  +3.5

Indy -1

I am with the Westgate top 5 on two games, and not fading any of the top 5:(  Not a place I like to be all things being equal.

My top 5 went 3-2 last week, and in the contest where I pick every game against the spread I went 9-7. 

On Thursday I had

Minn in the all spread contest so I have 1 win heading into today.

I sit tied for 27th in that contest.

It is not too late to join us as we have a lot of football left. We also have MLB playoffs on tap.

Just go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com. Use the paypal dropdown menu and choose the monthly subscription option. The cost is only 49.00 a month.

That gives you email and slack access to all sports active that I handicap. In addition you will have access to my slack investing channel where I share my thoughts on the markets, along with sharing many of the trades I make. This has been a very popular valued added feature at no additional cost. 

All slack channels have forums to discuss the variety of subjects that each forum covers.

Hope to see you join us. I have had this online site for 20+ years now:)

 

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Wk 1 in the NFL, Westgate top 5, RickJ’s Top 5 all posted

And before you know Week 1 of the NFL is here:)

Since the Westgate this morning does not have the top 5 up yet lets take a look at the Circa top 5 picks

Browns +2.5

Pitt +2.5

Jacksonville -4.5

Atlanta -3.5 (Loser)

Wash -7

 

RickJ’s Top 5 Picks for week 1( in no particular order except the jets was pick 5)

Houston +10

Indy +5

Arizona +7

Rams +5.5

Jets +2.5

I am fading the Washington top 5 play and that is about it.

So far I have not sent out any plays to subscribers yet.

I have sent out the road maps on every game played today along with my picks in the 

every game against the spread contest.

 

This goes out early every morning. In addition subscribers get my

top 5 picks on Saturday around noon PST.

 

In College football we sit at 4-3 for the season. Yesterday we went 2-1 with Baylor and Texas both 7 pt dogs

winning their games easily:)

 

 

 

Both of these have an active discussion board. The first channel is sports and the other is stock and option trading.

A few years ago I decided to share with subscribers my option and stock trading decisions. Along with pre market comments

and other comments during the day.

 

This has been a very popular value addition to my site. So much so that I am going to make it a regular part of the package for no additional 

cost!!! 

The option trading has been very successful , leaning toward selling options for income. While the stock trading is mostly trading

closed end funds that are income producing that have excellent management. In addition they tend to trade at a discount to Net Asset Value.

The stock trades typically produce 7 to 8 % income with many trades also producing capital gains when I exit the trades.

 

No other handicapping site gives the value RickJ’s Handicapping Picks gives. The sports picks have been producing positive EV betting 

now for 20+ years. 

 

In the past my MLB has been break even at best. But last season we won 17 units and this season we are right at that number. I have done this with only wagering on Overnight Sides. It appears very likely we will produce 16+ units a season in MLB.

 

The NFL has been solid from the start. Last season plays were almost 80% winners:)  When I see that from a service I shake my head that it is a big red flag. But since I post all my plays and have been doing that since day 1, I am the exception.  Of course I got hit a bit with positive variance:)

 

The cost of RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is only 49.00 a month.  Most services for what you are getting would cost you well into the 4 figure number yearly without being able to back out of the service once you have paid. But with RickJ’s Handicapping Picks, you can choose the months where the sports you wager on are being played. It is a month to month payment!

Come join us for the Football season.

Just go to the PayPal dropdown menu at rickjshandicappingpicks.com and pick the monthly choice. I will have you into the system quickly. You also get a 3 day trial where you get charged nothing until the end of the 3 days.

Hope to see you join us

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

 

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MLB Season to date, Comments as to details digging into the stats

Its been 3 months now since the beginning of the MLB season.

As most of you know who have been following me, MLB has been a long journey toward finding a methodology that consistently produces a positive EV.

I began this journey as most handicappers do handicapping the games the day of the game looking for overlays.  I used similar techniches as I have

successfully used in the NFL, College football and College hoops.

But, regardless of how I massaged my techniques to fit into the long grueling MLB season, results were break even at best.

But then I switched gears and starting handicapping games  the night before when the opening lines are introduced to the public. That is when

things changed for us.  As since I started using that approach, Overnight plays on sides has been solid. Both as to units won, but also as to variance.

 

As most of you also know I pay very close attention to variance. I like to follow the top to bottom swings monthly as I feel that gives the best picture

as to the stability of the methodology and also a good indicator of how much pain a bettor has to endure betting the games every day.

 

The change of gears has been so successful , that I have decided that is the only handicapping I will be doing going forward in MLB.

Last season for Overnight Sides we produced a +16.5 unit gain for the season.  Top to bottom swing was around 25 units, which was

weighted to the + side.

 

This season is on par to do much better. So lets look at the season to date results and then I will go through with you what I feel

is significant.

From any perspective this has been a very successful 3 months.
Now where we end up remains to be seen this season. MLB is not for everyone as I have said over and over. It is a grind. But as we are
seeing a profitable grind. And that as a handicapper is the goal. Excitement, thrills, big swings, is not something bettors should strive for.
A steady method, that if you use appropriate bet sizing, produces stress free profits is a winning method. That is what this is looking
like the more time that goes by.
For those that are thinking about joining us for the 2nd half of the season there are a few things to keep in mind.
1. You want to have at least two outs. The more the better.
2. You want to have outs that put out their lines the day before. That should not be hard as more and more books are doing that now
3. While you will not be able to find 10c lines on Overnight lines, 20c is acceptable. Day of game wagers only 10c lines are acceptable.
4. Betting methods should be setting aside an amount that if you lose everything it will not cause you any concern, and then wager
1.5 to 2 % of that sum for each wager.  But remember the higher the % the bigger the swings. 3% is not a number you should consider.
In addition it would be hard to find fault with a 1% bet sizing method.  But you will find 2% can get uncomfortable at times.
5. When you quit having fun doing this, its time to take a break:)  Handicapping sports is supposed to be an entertaining and
fun endeavor. When it ceases to become that, consider stopping.
I am going to stick to this method for the 2nd half of the season. My plays are sent out usually between 4 to 6 PST the day before
the scheduled games.  I send them out via email and also via my slack channels.  This has worked out well and I cannot remember
a time in the last year we have had difficulty getting the plays out.
The cost of a subscription is a mere 49.00 a month.  There is no long term commitment. The subscription entitles you to get all
plays on every sport I handicap.
In addition it gives you access to my stock trading section on Slack. This also is not for everyone. But if you trade stocks and options
you will find that section not only educational, but also, trades that produce positive EV since I have been posting them.
Typically I start the day on some days with some premarket comments, and what to look for in the way of news, both domestic and
international that has the potential to be market moving events. I also give my opinions as to what I expect (but I will tell you that predicting
news and the effects on the markets is not a precise science).  A lot of what appears to be random and illogical reactions occur  quite
frequently.
But studying the markets is a fun endeavor for me and helps keep my mind sharp. It is challenging and the twists and turns occur weekly:)
If you want to join us for the 2nd half of MLB, just send me an email for questions or you can sign up on my web site:
rickjshandicappingpicks.com.
On the page that pops up on your screen there will be a PayPal button that will let you subscribe. Usually I will have you up and running within
an hour of signup.
I have been doing this online now for over 20 years:)  I am happy to say I have subscribers who have been with me from day 1.
All of my subscribers were obtained by word of mouth. I do no advertising  and very little promotion of the site. So if you join
you will be among a very select number of subscribers, as many are not aware my site exists.
Good Luck
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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NFL Week Week 8 contest picks, NFL and NCAA FB season recap, Political odds update coming soon

NFL has been as solid as I can remember this season.  Plays are 14-3-1 or 82%!!! Top 5 contest picks are 23-10-2 or 69.69%!!! and in the contest where I pick every game against the spread I sit at 61-47 or 56.48%.

Like I said it does not get much better then this:)  Today I have sent out 1 play to subscribers. And have also sent out all roadmaps for this week on every game.

In the roadmaps I discuss the various factors of each game with a discussion of how they interrelate. For those doing their own handicapping this  is invaluable.

My 5 Contest picks this week are:

New Orleans +1.5

Pitt +10.5

Detroit +3.5

Green Bay +10.5

Cleveland +3

 

The Westgate top 5 went 2-3 last week bringing its record to 22-13. This is by far the best year I have seen since I have been following it.  Typically it has been a money making proposition to fade the top 5 in this contest. But so far not this season:)

The Westgate top 5 this week is:

NE

Tenn

Ariz

LV

Clev

I am with the top 5 on Cleveland and fading LV with NO.

It is clear to me the games are getting a bit tougher to handicap as we hit week 8:)

In MLB we started out winning with a win in game 1 of the world series with Phil +146

And in NCAA FB after a fast start, we have settled back down with two losing weeks in a row.

We sit at 22-16-1 for sides. Which is a solid 57.89%. But the totals this season have been 0-3. So we

find ourselves at +1.10 units in College football combining the two.

The NHL and NBA have not kicked in yet. Typically early in the season there are no plays until some kind of

history is set up in the databases for the season.  I expect those to kick in soon.

I have been doing this now online for 20+ years, and enjoy the handicapping as much now as when I started posting. While many handicappers have trouble keeping subscribers, I have had subscribers that have been with me since day 1:)

In addition, I try to keep finding ways to add value. The latest is the addition to my stock and option trades on my Slack channels. This has been a big success. As I am +EV on these trades with the drawdowns minimal.

Finally, we are heading into the midterms. I have shared on slack my thoughts of where the value was at. And in virtually every instance the lines have moved substantially in the direction I have projected.  I will post today or tomorrow on where I think things are heading into the midterms, and where I think there may still be value.

It is not too late to join us.  The cost is only $49.00 a month, and it has a 3 day free trial. Instead of paying a large lump sum for each sport, the subscription is month to month and covers every sport I handicap, including my stock and option trades.

One of the best values around.

Hope to see you join us.

Rick J

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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NFL Wk 2 contest picks, Westgate top 5 picks, NCAA FB and MLB Season to date all posted

NFL Wk 1 could not have gone any better.  3-0 on the plays I put out. 4-1 on my contest picks and 10-6 on the all spread contest picks. A solid first week!!!

My top 5 contest picks this week are:

Jets +6.5

Dallas +7

Houston +10

Arizona +5.5

Tenn +10

The Westgate top 5 picks went 3-2 the first week. As you know historically these have been a fade during the season.

The Westgate top 5 picks this week are:

New Orleans

New England

Cinci

Green Bay

Jacksonville

I am fading Cinci and not on any of the other top 5. I like my spot although I would prefer fading 1 or 2 more:)

In NCAA FB this season :

The 2 day short put sales are made on Thursday morning with a Friday expiration. They are screened with a nice cushion between the strike price and the market price of the stock. The annualized return on these can range from 50% on up.
The income trades typically bring in on average 8% a year in dividend income. In addition, most typically end up with a nice capital gain when the discount to NAV disappears and I look for other investment in this category.
Subscribers not only have access to my sports plays, but my trades within minutes after I make them.
The cost is only 49.00 a month, and unlike other services that charge a flat yearly fee per sport, you can cancel at the end of any month. That is why my service has been so steady in it subscriber base.
In addition, I am typically online for any questions related to these almost every morning.
To join us, simply go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com. Head to the paypal drop down menu and subscribe.  You have a 3 day free trial period before being charged.
It is by far the best value in sports handicapping services, with by far solid results. And I have 20 years of records to prove it:)
Saying all of this of course is not a guarantee of continued success. It is gambling and as such requires a solid bet sizing method to control risk. Without that do not even think of signing up. I cover that in my Must read section on top of my web site.
Hope to see you join us today!!!
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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NFL Plays Last season was the best in 20 Years!!! MLB we are on track for back to back 17 unit seasons.

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