Investing - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Indexes slightly lower Wedn pre-market, House Star-chamber, Syria, Dem Debate. My thoughts for a Wedn morning.

Markets are slightly lower this morning after another big runup on Tuesday. @CL is +.2% TLT +.32% Vix.x +2.44%.

A slightly negative premarket this morning. However, the trend is up. The markets are very overbought in the short term, so I would expect consolidation or a pullback at any time.

I took a swing trade yesterday in CARB. I do not plan on hanging onto it very long if it does not move this morning.

The news is pretty benign overnight. Pelosi and Schiff made their routine press conference and yesterday announced they would not be bringing any vote on authorizing an impeachment investigation anytime soon. My guess is they do not have the votes. And hey a star chamber is right up Schiff’s MO. So that is the way they will proceed for now.

Syria is still in the news, although the hysteria has settled down a bit. And intelligent people are starting to realize that Trump’s strategy is actually working. Quicker then I thought. Of course, if you listen to the politicians and the media you think the sky is falling when the exact opposite is true. Things will settle down even more, and the mid-east will work out the problems without the necessity of more American lives being lost. A win-win as far as I am concerned.

The Democrat debate was last night and all I heard was sound bites. I did not watch it as I knew what it would be like. Nothing of substance, a clown show. And from the sound bites, that is exactly what it was. The Dems have no candidate that has the ability to be President of the U.S. as I see it right now. Some are a joke, while some are just not in line with traditional American values. It’s a sad thing, as I once voted for Democrats once in awhile. I voted for Obama in his first term. I bought the hope and change:)

Then in the 2nd term, I held my nose and voted for Romney. The lesser of the two evils. In retrospect, it probably was a coin flip. Romney is no different than Obama in my opinion. He actually came out in support of Antifa! Now that is a pandering politician with no judgment at all. It is one thing to pander, but to pander thinking endorsing Antifa is the right way to go shows some serious critical thinking deficits.

Finally, we still have the IG, Durham, and Barr. Rumor has it those will be the cannon fire that finally takes all the people down that were involved in the coup against the Presidency. We will see:) Some very sharp people see it that way. So I am guessing its more likely than not that is going to happen. Brennen and clapper both shifting the blame to Obama indicate something is on the horizon. But remember it is still DC. People get away with the unthinkable in that town. So until I see it, I will remain cautious.

Also, I expect another shot fired before the release of the IG. Ukraine is dying down, so no doubt they have a new theory that will interject mass hysteria into the media. This is why you have to be careful in the markets. Manufactured News can hit at any time shaking the markets.

Political odds update for Wednesday:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 37/63 Against -7pts

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 67/33 -5pts

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 82/18 against +1pt

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 No Change

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 40/60 against +3pts

Warren: 30/70 against -3 pts

Biden: 12/88 against No Change

Clinton: 3/97 against -1pt

LA Governors race 55/45 Republican Favored -2pts I laid 57/43

KY Governors race 65/35 Republican Favored unchanged I laid 65/35

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Markets slightly higher Tuesday, China, Schiff’s star-chamber, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Tuesday morning

The markets are positive this morning up about .4%. TLT -.43% @CL -.24% and vix.x -3.50%

This is a slightly positive premarket bias.

I would have thought we would have had a lower open with the negative news about the China trade talks. But, one never knows how the markets are going to react. One can only make an educated guess:)

The big news now is Syria. It is more mass hysteria. I wonder if we will ever get a level headed calm reporting of the news anymore. You had ABC showing videos that were manufactured. We are seeing things now we have never seen before in this country. The news media intentionally misrepresenting the facts on the ground.

The Rhinos and the Dems are aligned on this one, but for different reasons. The Dems who were complaining we were in Syria months ago are now in hysterics that Trump is pulling out. The Rhinos who are for endless wars and helped get us into this mess are always for endless wars.

There are many level-headed intelligent people that have set out very good reasoning why Trump is correct. I tend to go with them on this one.

The Star Chamber headed by Schiff and company proceeds. Make no mistake it is a star chamber, headed by one of the most dishonest politicians America has seen in quite a while. There is no way to stop it at this point, but there is a bright spot in all of this. The Dems are almost assuredly setting up a massive defeat for them in 2020.

I have been asked if I was worried about Trump being reelected in 2020. I think its almost a certainty that he wins. The risk as I see it is in the Senate. The odds are 4-1 that the Senate does not convict. Now think about that for a second. The Republicans control the Senate. They need a 3/4 vote to convict. Yet the odds are only 4 to 1. That is pretty low under those circumstances, especially since many of the Republicans running in 2020 need Trump to carry them as they did in 2016.

Remember almost to a person in the Senate the mantra was let Mueller finish. I do not think it is going to be a cakewalk in the Senate. Now I always allow myself for the idea I could be wrong. After all, McConnell has said its pretty much a non-starter, and many Republicans are aligned with Trump on this one. But, 4 to 1? If the odds were 20 to 1 I would feel more comfortable.

I have been beaten by enough 1 outers at the poker tables to know what 4 to 1 means:)

But as to the markets what this means is more extreme volatility. It will be an emotional roller coaster ride. More importantly, can Americans stay sane during this process? I have my doubts.

Let’s take a look at the odds this morning to get a sense of reality:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 44/56 Against +1pt

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 72/28 +1 pt

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 81/19 against No Change

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 No Change

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 39/61 against -1pt

Warren: 33/67 against -1 pt

Biden: 12/88 against -1pt

Clinton: 4/96 against +1pt

LA Governors race 57/43 Republican Favored -2pts I laid 57/43

KY Governors race 65/35 Republican Favored -1pt I laid 65/35

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Markets Monday morning, IG report Friday, Syria, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Monday morning.

Monday morning and the indexes are off slightly. TLT is plus almost 1%. @CL is -2% and Vix.x is +3.5%. That is a pretty negative premarket. Much more negative than the indexes show. It would not surprise me to see a move lower this morning. We had quite a runup last week and the market is due for some consolidation.

One chart I like to look at is:

Markets Monday morning, IG report Friday, Syria, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Monday morning. 3

As you can see the Weekly QQQ is close to crossing over the weekly SPY. Typically most of the money on the long side is made when the QQQ leads. It’s a good indicator to keep a watch on.

A lot going on in the news front. The IG report is supposed to be out on Friday. I assume they will wait until after the close. The expectation is it will reveal massive abuses of power by the Obama administration, FBI and the CIA. And the expectation is it will lead to many indictments. I have to reason to think differently.

The only question will be is how far up the chain do they go? At the very least I expect Brennan, Clapper, and Comey to get indicted. McCabe if he is not cooperating. And any others who have not become government witness’.

The only thing that remains to be seen is if they go after Obama, members of the Mueller team and some in Congress both on both sides of the aisle.  It should be interesting.

In the meantime the hysteria of the day is Syria. If you are basing your opinions on the media and what politicians are saying you have not learned your lesson yet. The entire issue is complex, and what you are being sold is far from the truth. It is beyond the scope of this article to get into the details, but suffice it to say, find some people that know about the issue, rather than propagandists and political hacks. Many of the politicians that are hysterical about Trump’s new Syria policy are the same ones that were hysterical about his being there.

The rally last week was for the most part precipitated by the China Trade deal. It looks like at long last there will be some kind of deal. Just think of Congress would do its job and pass USMCA. Odds are 6/4 against if you can believe it. The Dems are flirting with extinction at this point.

Finally, let’s take an updated look at the political odds:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 43/57 Against -1pt

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 71/29 No Change

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 81/19 against  +4 pts no conviction

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 +3pts

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 40/60 against No Change

Warren: 34/66 against  -1 pt

Biden: 13/87 against No Change

Clinton: 3/97 against -1pt

This is more of what reality is then what you read in the media. Watch these numbers to at least get some take on reality. Now, these are far from perfect. But much better than the media.

Two wagers I made:

Which party will win LA governor’s race? I laid 57/43 on the Republican. I viewed the odds at around 2 to 1 in favor  of the Republican

The odds this morning are 59/41

Which party will win KY governor’s race? I laid 65/35 on the Republican. I viewed the odds at around 3 to 1 in favor of the Republican.

The odds this morning are 66/34

Remember I do not have to have the best of it to wager, I just need to think I have the best of it:)

Expect more volatility in the markets, as there will be many surprises as we approach the IG report.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

 

 

 

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Indexes up 1% premarket, updated Trump impeachment and conviction odds, Dems strategy. My thoughts for a Friday morning.

The news is positive this morning with rumors of a china trade deal and also a Brexit deal. These are not confirmed yet, and if there are any hitchs the market will turn down rapidly.

Indexes are up about 1% premarket, TLT-.72% @CL +1.42% and Vix.x -4.61%. The vix number is a little low to expect a trend day to the upside. However keep a watch on it, if it gets into the -7 to -10 area a trend day would be more likely.

I exited GDX with a small gain yesterday. So except for my portfolio, I am flat for swing trades.

Looking at the Trump odds this morning:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 45/56 -1pt from 2 days ago

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 71/29 +1pt from 2 days ago

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 77/23 against  -4 pts from 2 days ago

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 74/26 -4pts from 2 days ago

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 40/60 against No Change

Warren: 35/65 against

Biden: 13/87 against

Clinton: 4/96 against

There is not much change and not much new news.

The dysfunction continues, however. The fact that USMCA has not been passed is about as good an indicator of how bad things are in DC right now. The Dems have no idea how not passing this is going to come back and bite them.

I have tried to figure out the Dems strategy for 2020 and for the life of me if they had an expert advisor who figured out a plan on how to best lose the House and get pounded in 2020, what they are doing now would be what he would advise.

I do not expect this rally in the markets to continue much longer without another scare. It will either come from a break in China talks or it will come from another hoax similar to the fake whistleblower on Ukraine. Make no mistake, there will be more. As long as they have the 24/7 media as a propaganda machine, its a certainty. If the media did real reporting they could not get away with it.  But those days are long gone. I have said for a long time that a counterintelligence investigation needs to be done with the U.S. media. They are supposed to be the 4th estate not the group that helps take down a U.S. government.

Until this hysteria subsides, I am going to be very cautious in the markets for long term positions.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Markets up almost 1% this morning, China trade, Impeachment odds updated, 2020 Election odds, Ukraine. My thoughts for a Wednesday morning.

It was mostly about China yesterday as the market plummeted lower. As I said the premarket looked ripe for a trend day down. Now, these variables are not 100% but they give you an idea of where the day might go.

This morning its almost the exact opposite of the premarket yesterday. Indexes up almost 1%, TLT -.40 % @CL +1.18 % and VIX.X -5.82%. Remember I said almost, it’s not quite as positive as the variables were negative yesterday. So, A trend day up? I am not convinced of that yet.

Remember nothing has changed that I went through the last two days on the political front. Except, the momentum has shifted a bit. The White House sent out a letter saying they would not cooperate with the House as the entire process was a sham. (which it is until they vote).

You cannot have one party abusing their majority position on impeachment. The abuse is astonishing. But with the media in their pockets its easy to see how uninformed Americans would buy into it.

If your an avid Trump supporter you are on pins and needles and if your a “resistance” person you most likely are in a blood lust frenzy about now. As I said, it’s only going to get worse. But make no mistake, Trump’s enemies, while they seem on the offensive, are really on the defensive.  The corrupt in DC is in a box right now, as it will not be long now. Their corruption will be exposed for all to see.

Ukraine is not about Biden. All Trump did in the typical Trump fashion is shift the attention to where much of the corruption is. It is much bigger than Biden. And we are now finding out bits and pieces that many more than Biden is in on this corruption. Pelosi and Schiff have ties to Ukraine. Many democrat politicians have had direct connections with Ukraine to frame Trump. And now, what is everyone talking about, Ukraine:)  The stable genius has done it again.

Now, at first glance, you might think I am a staunch Republican.  Far from it. I am anti-establishment regardless of which party they are in. The entire DC establishment is corrupt to the core. I have a distaste for corrupt establishment republicans as much as I have a distaste for the people that have hijacked the Democrat party.

Trump has exposed this for all that have open eyes and an open mind to see. What is frightening it is far worse than anyone ever imagined. This is what Trump is fighting. Win or lose, its an honorable fight. And anyone that takes up that fight I am with. Our country depends on winning it regardless of who is leading the fight. Right now it is Trump, and that is one of the reasons I support him.

Now let’s look at the odds this morning to get a taste of reality:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019:  46/54 in favor  -5pts from yesterday

Trump impeached by the end of  1st term: 70/30 in favor  -2 pts from yesterday

Senate convict Trump in his first term 81/19 against  +1 pt from yesterday

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 78/22 in favor +2 pts from yesterday

Forget the media and the hysteria, watch the last two numbers.

Let me add one more to the list:

The U.S. 2020 Presidential winner:

Trump 40/60 Against.

Now, if there was ever an overlay taking the 3/2 on Trump would be it. The media and the hysteria have created an excellent positive EV wager here. If I were to put out a line it would be at least 2 to 1 in favor of Trump being re-elected.

There will be other wagers when they set the odds of Senate and House races.  These will provide many positive EV opportunities. Remember the betting markets are swayed by the news. Can you imagine basing your betting decisions on the news:) You would be broke in record time.

One other advice I want to leave you with this morning. I always look for people online that provide objective analysis that is reasoned and logical.  Some of the best are found on https://social.quodverum.com. Rex, Saul, and Victor are excellent reading day in and day out.

In addition there are many on twitter. Two many to list. But one that caught my eye this morning was this thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181873348118224897.html?utm_source=email&utm_medium=alert&utm_campaign=internal

This was written by @drawandstrike. If true, the entire Mueller team is going down by the time this is over. In addition, there will be many in Congress on both sides that will be draw into this. Remember, it was the Senate Republicans that said we have to protect Mueller at all costs. And it was McCain that was directly involved in the fake dossier.

There is a lot of interesting things going on now. Unfortunatley if your an investor, it makes it very difficult to take a position with tight stops. AS far as I am concerned short term swings are the only way to go right now, until or if things settle down.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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