Investing - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Dow +114 premarket after the Monday plunge. Time to buy? My thoughts.

Monday was carnage in the markets. The market was overbought, but the trade talks with China was the precipitating factor for this decline.

Now overnight, Trump as tweeted out a few positive things about the trade talks and we are now looking at a 3/4 to 1% gap up in the markets this morning.

However, TLT is only off about 1/5% along with Crude off about that.

I would think we are not out of the woods yet on the downside. I expect at least another test of the lows. But a bounce could be in the cards the next few days, and is very likely.

I do not see any reason to play a gap trade either way today.

I put on the 2nd position of my SPY mean reversion trade yesterday. I also exited two swing trades as my stops were hit. On swing trades, I rarely do not take stops. On occasion, the trade has a high EV of a mean reversion trade at the time a stop is hit, but that was not the situation in these two trades.

There is a lot of news out this morning about senior officials saying how the talks are dead this year. A word of warning, unless you hear it from the official consider it fake news. In this charged political environment, you should never deviate from this rule.

Those statements have 0 meaning. So do not use them in your decision making. In addition, you also have to take with a grain of salt what administration officials are saying. As much of what they say is for leverage in the negotiations.

The bottom line is that unless you are privy to the information first hand, or have an investigative reporter that is solid, forget it.

On the political front not much has changed. There was news out yesterday that Barr assigned a US Atty to investigate into the origins of the Russia hoax. That is a positive, as the U.S. Atty is one of the best, and America needs to be told the story.

In addition, if there was wrongdoing, people need to be held accountable. My guess is we are going to see accountability for the first time in a very long time. How far up the chain it goes, remains to be seen.

But, I suspect this will further exacerbate the rhetoric (if that is possible). The media spin has already started on this. So expect 24/7 that Trump is targeting his political enemies. Pretty rich after what has been done to him and his family the last 2+ years.

On the international front, nothing has cooled off. The rhetoric of war is continuing in the Mideast. Iran is not ramping down their talk, and are expanding their missiles into Iraq. We can thank Bush for that one.

There is an alliance in the Mideast, where it appears Iran and Iraq are on the same side. It’s all pretty complex and beyond the subject of this site. But the news this morning is many oil sites of the Saudi’ have been under attack. I doubt the U.S. and Israel will sit back and do nothing. As they are now both aligned solidly with the Saudi’.

So just another wildcard that will be a catalyst for volatility in the markets.

A good article I read this morning regarding Trump’s trade policy with China :
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/05/13/investment-exodus-shifting-supply-chains-china-walks-into-trumps-golden-ticket-trap/

This site is an excellent site for political analysis. They typically give a detailed analysis backed by facts and logic. They are correct much more often than most other analysts. But remember no one has been 100% predicting the last two years.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription I sent out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice valued added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:) In addition, I share all my short term swing trades to subscribers.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Is Barr heading to jail or at least contempt? What will this do to the markets? My thoughts.

At one point on Monday the Dow was off 500 pts and had a monster rally ending up down only about 40 pts.

But it looks like the rally is short lived as this morning we find ourselves with another large gap down of almost 1% in the Nasdaq and over 1/2 % in the other index’

The sentiment seems to be changing. Could this be the “Sell in May” theory kicking in?

I used to pay a lot of attention to that but now use other more reliable indicators as to profitable EV opportunities.

TLT and the Dollar are positive while everything else is underwater. This is shaping up to be a down day. Perhaps even a trend day down.

Usually, you need to wait to see how the first 30 min go to get a feel for the type of day you will be looking at.

I am still long INTC, and have several other short term trades on this moment. I always keep a solid portfolio of income-producing assets that I re-balance no more than once a month.

I have a number of stocks on my radar this morning, but until I see some signs of life, I most likely will not take the trades.

On the home political front, things are getting insane again. You would of thought the Mueller report would have settled people down. But the media will not let it rest. And the Dems think this is their ticket in 2020.

So now they are talking about jailing the Atty Gen, Barr. Let me give you a hint, its not going to happen. The Dems are on the wrong side of this issue. And its not even close. I will not get into the details, as its beyond the purposes of this site. But you can take it to the bank that the fight between Barr and the House is a mismatch. Barr has the upper hand.

Remember also, he is no Jeff Sessions. He is ex CIA , and has been an atty general before. Add to that he is the brightest person in the room.

On the international front, their is a lot going on right now, almost too much to consider. Trade, Iran, Venezuela, Israel to name a few. And its all heating up. The U.S. is sending war ships to the mid east. So, something to keep a watch on. If fighting does break out, Oil and Gold will be excellent protections for a portfolio.

They will also be excellent predictors of fighting before it breaks out. If you see either sky rocketing it is time to take notice.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription I sent out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice valued added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

I have been only as a sports handicapper for almost 15 years now and get almost all my business from long-time subscribers and word of mouth. Few handicappers can positive EV over that period of time. But, I teach how to handle variance to deal with these.

As an update: We are no close to 30 min before the open and TLT is +1/2%. This would change my opinion on a partial gap fill trade. I would not consider any gap fill trades today.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:) In addition, I share all my short term swing trades to subscribers.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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-475 Gap down in the Dow. Is this a buy the dip? My thoughts

Its all about China trade this morning. And right now the markets do not like what they see.

An hour before the opening, The dow is off almost 500 pts and the Nasdaq off about 150.

On the bright side, TLT is unchanged and Oil almost unchanged. This to me indicates that at least a partial gap fill might be a reasonable trade this morning.

The news out this weekend was the President plans to increase tariffs on China, as negotiations are not going as well as he wants. Then the rumors started flying, the biggest was China was going to cancel the trade meetings at the end of this week.

Early this morning, news came out that the talks are still on. So there is a lot of uncertainty, but as always the market overreacts.

With the news that the meeting are still on, I would expect the markets to rally further off the overnight bottoms. How far remains to be seen.

To me this is a buyable dip. Until we signs of a recession in the works, I am going to stick to a bullish short term view. I am not as bullish medium term , and long term, it all depends on 2020. Trump loses and I become a full bear on the markets.

On the geo political front things are heating up again. The mid east is ablaze with fighting breaking out between Israel and Gaza. This has reached levels not seen in a long time. Combine that with Venezuela and a lot could go wrong.

On the home front, a showdown is looming in the House, where they are demanding not only a full un-redacted Mueller report and also looking to get Barr to testify under rules that have never been in place in US history.

So far there seems no indication for compromise by either side. Should be fireworks this week on that issue. In addition, Barr has started a full scale investigation into the predicate for the spying on the Trump Team.

I suspect, that the end result will be that there was no predicate, but it was all manufactured, to weaponize the intelligence committees for political purposes. Now I know this is a controversial topic, however, I have been following this closely, and if I were a gambler, that is the way I would be betting.

What that means for investing purposes is more volatility. As if that is true , a lot of peoples lives are on the line. One of the best independent investigative journalists to follow on this is John Solomon. If your only watching the mainstream media, you will have no idea what reality is.

There is much more of course, but as the purpose of this site is handicapping sports and investing, I do not dig deep into the political issues, only as to how they may affect the markets.

I have several trades on heading into today, and will be taking a hit on those, at least on the open. Typically on big down opens I do not take a knee jerk sell action. I wait a bit for things to settle down and then plan my strategy.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription I sent out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice valued added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

I have been only as a sports handicapper for almost 15 years now and get almost all my business from long-time subscribers and word of mouth. Few handicappers can positive EV over that period of time. But, I teach how to handle variance to deal with these.

As an update: We are no close to 30 min before the open and TLT is +1/2%. This would change my opinion on a partial gap fill trade. I would not consider any gap fill trades today.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:) In addition, I share all my short term swing trades to subscribers.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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The House circus continues, and non-farm payrolls beats by 70k. How will the markets react today? My thoughts

Another sell off on Wednesday on a day that had a reasonable probability of an up day. Typically days after bearish engulfing patterns tend to be positive.

Today we wake up to what is setting up to be a gap up in the markets of about 1/3% except for the Nasdaq which is positive over 1/2%. TLT is off around 1/5 %. Everything else is hovering around the even mark.

This to me looks like a positive pre-market, I would not be inclined to try any gap fill trades today.

There is the non-farm payroll report coming out in 15 min. And a lot of Fed Speak today. In reality, you could call it murders row.

I would expect some volatility with the Fed Speak, in essence reaffirming that rate cuts are not in the cards.

On the political front, the House has become a full three ring circus. They could actually take their show on the road, and it would make for a good traveling show comedy act.

The problem the House as right now is the Dems for the first time in a long time have no control over the DOJ. Also, the courts are very iffy for them at this point. And even the cowards in the Senate cannot get too far out of line with 2020 approaching. An angry base is the best way to keep Republican establishment types in line facing reelection. A perfect example is Graham:)

As a well known gambler I am typically asked questions from time to time as to the odds of particular events. One of the abilities I have developed over the years is quantifying something that is not easily quantifiable.

Not that I am always right. But more often than not I get it right. And when your betting if you can hit 55% you get all the money in the long run.

A day ago I received the following email from a long time subscriber to my sports handicapping service:

” I love your insights into US politics and potential political wagers. I was just looking at the odds on Predict-ic for Democratic Presidential nominee and was wondering if you think there’s any value there and how you would cap the race at this point in time. “

My Response: “

I do not think there is any value yet. Although the best bet right now is the Republicans to take the presidency in 2020. I think you can get around 6 to 4.

When the matchups come out for 2020 on the republican side, I would fade every establishment republican that voted against the wall, and then every establishment republican that has opposed Trump. The best of course would be the votes against the wall. Then if you want to get adventurous just vote against every establishment republican that is getting a strong primary challenge by a MAGA candidate.

All will most likely be big dogs. And when the smoke clears I think you will have a nice profit.”

This is how I view things right now. As the Democrat field gets cut down, and we get closer to 2020 I will be more able to evaluate things. With the Dems it is not really who is going to win primaries but who the party wants in. At this point its not really clear to me.

I always get emails like this from time to time, so I welcome them, as I have a passion for handicapping. Not only sporting events but also anything that you might be able to make a price on.

With the market getting oversold yesterday I took a position in INTC. I sent this out to my sports handicapping subscribers that elected to take my stock picks. Its a free add on to my service and sent out only via Viber.

Non-farm payroll numbers just came out and expectations were 190K and the number was 263K. That is quite a beat:) So far the market’s reaction has been positive. It’s usually best to wait about 15 min to see what the real reaction is.

Unless the Fed Speak comes up with a big surprise today, it would not surprise me to see the market pull out of this small dip and continue to the upside. It looks like my buy of INTC will be an easy trade. At least for now:)

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:) In addition, I share all my short term swing trades to subscribers.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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After Wednesday’s drop, where do we go? Its all about China, in more ways than one.

The Stock Market took a sharp dip just before the close on Wednesday. The cause?

There is a lot of speculation as there always is, but to me it looks like its all about China. And in more than people realize.

Of course we have the trade deal talks. And it appears they are not going so well right now. But, more importantly even the most naive know that have of Congress is in bed with China.

If the truth were known almost every person in Congress is getting some monetary benefit from China, by hook or by crook. Some of the most notibles are McConnell, and Biden. But there are many others.

So, why would China make a trade deal that benefits Trump, know they may well be able to get a Chinese friendly person in the White House in 2020. Not only that but they have the power to exert influence over the electorate.

Hurting farmers would hurt Trump’s support in the heartland. And just an overall failure of a deal will hurt him a bit nation wide.

Then we come to Nafta. Trump has done the impossible and renegotiated Nafta to where American jobs do not take such a hit. How he did it is beyond me, but he did. But unfortunately this needs to be ratified in the House and Senate.

The chances of that happening are virtually 0 . The Dems are not going to give him a win like that. And truth be known I doubt he could round up 50 Republican votes in the Senate. They just do not want Trump to be reelected.

And then we have the Southern Border. This to me is the picture of a country that is rapidly in decline. When you cannot even get politicians to support protecting against uncontrolled illegals pouring over or Southern Border the end game for the U.S. seems to be rapidly approaching.

The U.S. political system has failed big time. To quote John Adams “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.”

And in my judgement that is what you are seeing played out in real time before our eyes. Yes it is history in the making but as someone that grew up in America, its a tragic event.

There is much more, but I do not want to push anyone over the edge this morning:) And of course, this could be just the ramblings of a paranoid delusional person, that has no grasp on reality:)

As a gambler I always tell people you have to factor into the equation that your perspective may be off. There is always that element in any observation. And I do factor that in. But here I give the chances of that pretty slim.

There is a new magazine that has just come out.
https://humanevents.com/ I highly recommend it. Raheem Kassm is the Editor in Chief, and he is a breath of fresh air discussing current events.

It leans right but gives a very analytical approach to the various issues and news. Something that is missing from the mainstream media.

So where does that leave us in the markets. In the short term most of this is a question of timing to take advantage of the opportunities where the market over reacts. Both on the long side and short side.

In the long term, we are in uncharted territory. When was the last time it was mainstream to have hooded thugs roaming around terrorizing people. When was the last time it was mainstream identity politics to become epidemic, when was the last time that the media was almost all in the tank for one party?

As I see it, this cannot end well for the U.S. Americans have become too complacent. After all, this is the home of the free and the land of the brave. But as eastern European countries know so well, Freedom can be fleeting.

As John Adams said: “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.”

As I see it that is what is playing out in real time before our eyes. On one side we are witnessing history, but on the other as an American who has lived his life here, its tragic.

So where does that leave us as traders? In the short term it is just a question of sticking to the plan and taking advantage of exaggerated moves. Take advantage of human nature.

In the long run it becomes much more complex. As I view it, if Trump loses in 2020 the trade of your lifetime will be available. Get out of everything. The market, real estate , and head to cash.

Preferably with a yield. Cut your debt. And prepare for the worst. In addition, consider shorting the markets, but you will have to pick an instrument that you can stay into for some time. And I would not allocate more than 10% into that short.

But running up to 2020, I suspect Trump will be keeping interest rates low, pushing for that huge infrastructure bill, and overall not reducing spending. This will in turn give him his best chances in 2020, but also as an investor, it means more of this bull market and appreciation of home values.

As we approach an hour before the open, the markets are hovering around the even mark. We are overbought, after all we just made new highs after the V shaped recovery.

TLT and the USD are also around the even market. I suspect we have some more downside today, but its a dip that should be bought.

I have been in and out of various trades and have been on a nice run of late on my short term trades. I share most of them with my sports handicapping subscribers via Viber. I include that as part of the sports handicapping service.

If we get a big dip again today, it will start peaking my mean reversion trading interests. But its a bit early to think about that for now.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:) In addition, I share all my short term swing trades to subscribers.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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