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Markets in panic this morning, Coronavirus, Market tips re: Panic, Newsletter list. My thoughts for a Monday morning

Panic has finally hit the markets. And it is pure panic this morning. SPY -2.5% QQQ -2.75% TLT +1.39% GLD +2.34% @CL -4% VIX.X +34.37%

This is what panic looks like. I cannot remember when I have seen Vix.x + almost 35% premarket. That is something you rarely see. On the bell curve, I would say we are on the outer edges right now for the VIX premarket.

This is all Coronavirus related. The news is not good. Matter of fact I doubt it could be worse this morning. The problem is the media has cried wolf so many times now, that they have no credibility.

So you have to find an independent news source to get your information. My suggestion is OANN, to stay somewhat up to date on accurate information on the virus. Myself, I have been as complacent as most, but I plan on getting up to speed on this in the next few days. Once I do I will give my thoughts on what is a logical discussion of what the facts are. But I doubt it will be until Wednesday or so.

I saw a number the other day where the U.S. gets over 95% of its prescription medications from China. That is a staggering number, how it relates to the Coronavirus I plan on figuring out.

So if you are in the market right now from Friday what do you do? Rule 1. When everyone else around you is in panic mode, that is the time to not panic. This is a hard and fast rule for many reasons. The primary one is there is no % in panic. I always like to make the analogy to the private pilot who is flying a small plane. And then because of some screwups finds he put the plane into a full spin.

As an instrument-rated pilot, I know that pulling out of a full spin in a small plan is one of the toughest maneuvers you can do. But as “Taylor” said in his many books on flying, ” Considering the alternatives, you best do everything you can to pull out of the spin”.

This applies to life in general. When you find yourself in panic mode, you have to get a grip to have a chance. Clear thinking with a logical mind beats panic every day of the week. That is one of Rick’J’s Rules:)

Rule 2. Do not sell on the open. You will not get a good fill and its time to wait until things settle down. If you follow good position sizing techniques you should not have a problem.

Rule 3. Look for opportunities. Panic creates opportunity. Humans tend to overreact. I have found the best opportunities are found at the end of the session. You want to avoid being on the wrong side of a trend day down.

This is pretty simplistic but it is a good start. If you avoid panic you are a step ahead of most.

I have been doing more and more income trading at the moment as I have found the markets too elevated to get over-leveraged to the long side.

I like to find some short put sales on Thursday with a 10 to 20% breakeven threshold for a quick two-day profit. When learning this technique I started out placing these trades on the first day of the week.

I learned there are enough opportunities for this trade on a Thursday for Friday expiring options, there is no reason to do Monday trades.

I still have several swing trades on, but I am obsessive about position sizing. I have no worries this morning. I will be looking for some opportunities later in the day.

If you want an unbiased analysis of the markets each weekend I recommend:

https://www.dashofinsight.com/weighing-the-week-ahead-investors-can-always-learn-something-from-mr-buffett/

In this issue, Jeff talks about the Coronavirus, Internet Crime, his good, bad and the ugly column, the week ahead, and the part I especially like “Quant Corner and Risk Analysis”.

Note, he puts the odds of a recession in the next 9 months at .41%. Two other indicators state no chance of a recession.

There is much more to the newsletter but its the best free investing newsletter on the internet today.

One other very good newsletter is :

https://seekingalpha.com/author/new-deal-democrat#regular_articles

What both of these have in common are they are devoid of politics. They are a quantitative view of the markets, with some opinions thrown in that tend to be logical.

Read these each week, and stay away from the mainstream media fear-mongering. As an investor, you cannot get caught up in the day to day hysteria. It will cost you money.

One other decent newsletter comes out each morning is:

https://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-breakfast#regular_articles

It is a brief rundown of news heading into the opening of the markets. And again is non-political.

Throw an OANN feed onto your desktop and you will be all set for the day. OANN tends to be on the conservative side of things, but it is factually based. You will not find the hysteria you get in the liberal media.

You can find OANN by subscribing at Facebook, or Klowdtv.com has its feed also.

The political odds have not changed much since my last post. You can find the odds and my comments in the political odds section of the site.

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

On the sports betting side of this site, I am working on an article describing the 4 seasons of College Basketball betting.

Each season has different considerations, and as I am a rule-based handicapper they all have different rules before I make a wager.

We are in Season 2 of this years, College Hoops. Season 3 will start with conference championships, and then Season 4 is post-season tournaments.

March Madness is almost here, and then we move into the MLB Season.

Preseason MLB has started. Over the last four years, I have had a special for subscribers: If I do not have a winning season you get 50% of your subscription fee back!

I started this 4 years ago. Since I have started it I have not had to refund a penny:) This special will be in play this season also. All it requires is you be a subscriber from the first week of the MLB season until the last regular-season game.

If you are considering subscribing, heading into March Madness and MLB is a perfect time! Go to the PayPal drop-down menu on the web site and subscribe.

As an additional Subscriber benefit, I post most of my stock trades on Viber to those that want them for free.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja

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Markets gaping up, A major shift in balance of power in the U.S. at hand, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Wednesday morning

The overnight markets are off their highs but still are looking to gap up almost 1/2%. @CL +1.4% Vix.x -4.36% TLT +.34%

IWM is lagging about unchanged. This to me is a slightly positive configuration. Remember today is Fed day. So, around 11 PST the fed will announce rate changes. Then consensus seems to be they will leave rates alone, even though the President is encouraging them to lower rates.

My thought is with the Corona Virus, Impeachment proceedings and all the other uncertainties that abound us, The Fed should err on the side of liquidity. And they have been. Although rates are not going lower, they have been flooding liquidity into the markets.

Markets being what they are you will get all kinds of speculation as to what is on the Feds mind and why. I would not bother with that, just watch how the market reacts and turn off the pundits who get it wrong most of the time.

I exited all my virus trades for a nice gain on most. And now have entered some other swing trades that are a bit more mainstream:) Three are showing a nice gain premarket while the other is underwater.

I have picked up my swing trading a bit, but I am still cognizant of the political risks in the market. So I am keeping a tight leash on the swing trading.

Today is the question day in the impeachment trial. One thing I have noticed is the Senators seemed to have not listened to one word the President’s defense team put on. It was logic-based, based upon sound legal principles, yet the Senators insist on keeping politics into the mix.

What I am observing is an erosion of the power of the executive branch. Make no mistake this will not stop with President Trump. Regardless of who is President, they will now be held hostage by Congress and the intelligence community.

This is a very dangerous shift in the U.S. The Executive branch is an independent branch with responsibilities for the safety of the American people. Once the transformation is complete, what Hamilton feared will be in full force. The control of the executive branch by Congress. This has been coming for a long time now.

Congress is out of control, as are the intelligence communities. What they want are puppets that will do their bidding. Something President Trump is not. So, they want him out. And make no mistake, both Democrats and Republicans want him out. He is interfering with their ability to make money. And for them, nothing could be more serious.

You do not have to be a rocket scientist to figure out what is going on. The Fake Dossier has been proven a hoax, and it has been established there was no predicate to spy on Trump and his team. Yet Congress is uninterested. Not only that they had their two-year investigation in the Senate.

So the IG report comes out and crickets. No calls for investigations, no outcry. Just more investigations of Trump.

Then we get the Ukraine hoax. Just another version of the Fake dossier. So, the House gets its members to impeach in a star chamber proceeding where much of the evidence to this day is not known by house members that voted to impeach. But then we get to the Senate ( The voice of reason):)

And wouldn’t you know it, Republicans want to hear from witnesses. They do not care about the lack of due process in the House. They could care less that Schiff did not send the entire record over to them. There have been no calls for Atkinson’s testimony. But, of course, when an NYT report comes out based upon thirdhand information about some transcript that was being written by Bolton, they are all over it.

Not the Atkinson transcript, Not the rule change that allowed a fake Whistleblower, not the fact that Schiff orchestrated this entire hoax, but a news report based upon no first-hand knowledge.

It would be comical if it was not so serious. As I said, you do not have to be a rocket scientist to figure out what is occurring. But American complacency what it is Americans will sit like deers in headlights and watch with amazement as this unfolds. Doing nothing, saying nothing.

I am going this dialogue here as there is much more and the market is only 30 min before the open. But what is happening in the Senate is very similar to what occurred in the House. It is shaping up as a real screwing for this President. Now some may be very happy about this. If your a Dem or a never Trumper you are probably rooting them on.

But, it will not stop here. The repercussions of what is occurring now will affect the U.S. for generations. Do you really only want 2 branches of government? Do you really want a media that is in bed with one political party? Do you really want Congress to call all the shots, knowing they are beholden to not only special interest groups in the U.S. but also foreign countries?

Think long and hard, as the next time it will be your candidate on the receiving end. Pandora’s box has been opened, and they will not be able to shut it again.

For trading today I plan on looking for some more short term swings. If I have time I will post on my private twitter feed my thoughts. But for subscribers to my sports service, I will send them all my trades.

Looking over the political odds the chance of conviction in the Senate has no moved from 9 to 1 against.

The chance of Bolton testifying has dropped to 6 to 4 against.

Romney is still the most likely person to vote to convict Trump in the Republican party at 3 to 1 against. Murkowski sits behind him at 4 to 1 against.

The odds of the Senate Subpoena witnesses by Feb 7th is 55 to 45 against.

Republicans have moved to 52 to 48 to win the presidency in 2020.

Trump is 9 to 1 in favor of getting the Republican nomination

The Maine Senate race is almost dead even. Collins is taking the very worst approach she could take, by waffling on this witness issue. Trump supporters are likely to stay home as she has no primary challenge. Without them, she cannot win.

If she ends up voting for witnesses betting against her is not a bad wager in my opinion.

So far not much has changed. I will watch the numbers and keep you posted. Forget the media, watch the odds:)

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

Rick

RickJs Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skye: riccja

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Markets rebounding up over 1/2%, The Senate clown show will start soon, short term virus trades, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Wedn Morning

A nice start to the week with the market taking a nosedive. Almost all of it is related to the coronavirus and the implications. Only a small part is related to the impeachment proceedings as they are going very well for the President.

The only caveat is that the Senate Republicans, as usual, seem bent on self-destruction with their obsessive desire to call more witnesses. As expected Romney is leading the charge. One has to ask, how many times with the Republicans let Romney destroy their party? Human nature being what it is, most likely it’s never-ending.

The Republicans, as usual, are afraid of their own shadow. Collins being the prime example. My prediction here in the middle approach is going to cost her the Senate seat in 2020. Without Trump supporters, she cannot win. So she is either throwing the election intentionally or she is not the brightest bulb in the bunch.

The RNC or America First should assure the voters a choice in the primary. But right now there is no one running against her. Rona is not doing her job. Considering she is related to Mitt that should come as no surprise. She sits on twitter all day and does little to nothing to prepare for contingencies like Collins who is putting her Senate seat at risk.

Graham is a different story entirely. He does have a primary challenger, a Trump supporter, and it would be a shame if SC gives Graham another six years.

And it goes on and on. Establishment Republicans with a few exceptions are no different than their Democrat counterparts.

By the way, I expect the Senate Republicans to fold and turn this into a circus, with calling new Witnesses. Everything Dershowitz said went over their head. Our political system is broken beyond repair at this point.

Back to trading:) I put on some short term trades in stocks that I thought might show a quick profit in biotech, specifically related to virus research. The trades have been very profitable with some very solid gains on the first day. I took my profits in one trade with a quick 30% gain on the same day.

I am sitting at almost a 50% gain in another of the trades. I send out all my trades to subscribers of my sports handicapping service as a value-added feature.

I also have a short term swing in MOO. It is a mean reversion trade and is hovering around breakeven right now.

A lot has happened since we last looked at the political odds, so let’s take a look this morning and see where they stand:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 11/89 -1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
I took the 9/91 a few days ago. I laid it off yesterday at .10 for a 10% gain. After the Parnas news did not move the markets I decided it was time.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 91/9 +1 Pts (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, they will lose all 3)

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 71/29 -1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 69/31 Republicans. -2 Pts ( slipping a bit) A reflection of some Senate Republicans like Collins not sticking behind the President. It is political suicide to not support Trump, yet for whatever reason, some feel the need to do it.

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 48/52 -3 Pts
Warren: 4/86 – 1 Pt
Biden: 18/82 -3 Pts
Buttigieg 2/87 -4 Pts
Sanders 26/74 +3 Pts
Bloomberg 11/89 +4 Pts
Clinton 2/98 -1 Pt ( She is fading fast)

These are pretty meaningless right now the way the Democrats pick their candidate. Essentially, whoever the party leaders want the party leaders get. And they do not want Sanders. My guess is a brokered convention and a new name appears. I would say the odds are 50/50 that the Democrat nominee is not on the list of candidates right now.

Several new lines of interest:

Romney vote to convict: 23/77 -1 Pt
Collins Vote to convict 17/83 +3 Pts
Sasse Vote to convict: 6/84 -3 Pts
Murkowski vote to convict: 20/80 +2 Pts
Jones Vote to convict: 62/38 Unchanged
Manchin vote to convict: 47/53 -5 Pts
Senate GOP vote to convict Trump: 0 is 72/28 +10 Pts
1 is 12/88 +4 pTS
2 is 9/91 +1 pT

Romney, of course, leads the odds on the most likely Republican to vote to convict. Machin has become a toss-up.

A reasonable wager would be to bet Machin does not vote to convict. You get slight odds, and if he goes that way he is toast in 2020. I do not see him voting to convict. I looked this morning to wager on this but the liquidity is very light. So I am legging into the wager and laying anything under 55/45.

Another interesting wager is Bolton Senate Trial testimony by 3/31. Odds are 47/53 against. This is a tough line. I was hoping to get somewhere like 2 to 1. At a tossup, there are too many variables to wager on this.

One more wager I like is Which party will in Virginia. The odds are 76/23 in favor of the Dems. With the gun issue front and center, it would not surprise me to see the state go for Trump in 2020. The resolution of this wager is 10 months away, so I typically do not make wagers that far out. But I see a lot of value in this one.

Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think. If the odds start getting close to 3 to 1 against conviction its time to start paying attention.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

Rick

RickJs Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skye: riccja

0

Markets gaping higher Friday, Zero-Sum politics, Updated political odds with several new odds

Markets gaping up from 1/5th to almost 1/2% this morning led by the Nasdaq. That is usually a good sign when the Nasdaq leads. TLT is -1.11% GLD +1/10th % Crude +1/2% Vix.x is off 1.4%

This is a positive pre-market configuration. Watch vix.x for chances of another trend day to the upside.

For those of you that are new to trading, this is what a bull market looks like:) They do not last forever, but the markets have everything going for it right now. Low-interest rates, Fed liquidity, Phase 1 of China trade deal, USMCA passing, Lowest unemployment across all classes in 50 years. And there is more:)

The only negative is politics. That is it. It is obvious the political system in the U.S. is badly broken. Its become a zero-sum game. Survival of the fittest. Anything goes. That is what U.S. politics has sunk to.

It’s gone from respectful opposition to destroy the opposition at all costs. The media has jumped onto this bandwagon for the left. And unfortunately, only 1 side is fighting this way. The Republicans gentlemen that they are, refuse to fight back.

I have always said, you let the other side set the rules, and then you play by them. What could be fairer than that? Trump plays by those rules. But very few Republicans have the courage to fight back.

An encouraging sign was Martha McSally yesterday tell a CNN reporter that she was not going to answer his questions because he was a hack:) Now this is what I would expect more of from the Republicans. If they all did this the party and the people would be better off.

But that is idealistic thinking. After all, they are members of the human race. I have always said to my subscribers over the years that your biggest opponent will be yourself. Human nature will sabotage you at every step. It is the same in politics.

You can see this with the upcoming trial in the Senate. Before hearing any part of either side of the case, 5 Republican Senators have announced they want to hear from more witnesses? Can you imagine?

Now each is motivated by different considerations. Romney is never Trumper. It matters not what the issue. He is going to be anti-Trump. Fairness and truth mean nothing to him. After all, he supports Antifa. McCowsky voted against Kavanaugh. That is all you need to know about her. Something is off with her. Collins, a do-gooder. Has no business being in the Senate. She is letting her personal opinions interfere with good sense. The other two, I imagine Never Trumpers.

So, even after the star chamber in the House, after the rules are clear the case is to be decided on the record in the House, you have 5 Senators that are going to be a fly in the ointment to what should be a speedy conclusion to this travesty. But it is what it is:)

Let’s look at the political odds as there are some new odds posted that are interesting:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 12/88 +1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
I took the 9/91 a few days ago. I laid it off yesterday at .10 for a 10% gain. After the Parnas news did not move the markets I decided it was time.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 -2 Pts (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, they will lose all 3)

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 72/28 -1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time.

Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 71/29 Republicans. -1 Pt

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 51/49 No Change
Warren: 5/85 – 1 Pt
Biden: 21/79 -1 Pts
Buttigieg 6/84 +1 Pts
Sanders 23/77 +2 Pts
Bloomberg 7/83 +1 Pt
Clinton 1/99 -1 Pt ( She is fading fast)

These are pretty meaningless right now the way the Democrats pick their candidate. Essentially, whoever the party leaders want the party leaders get. And they do not want Sanders. My guess is a brokered convention and a new name appears. I would say the odds are 50/50 that the Democrat nominee is not on the list of candidates right now.

Several new lines of interest:

Romney vote to convict: 24/76
Collins Vote to convict 14/86
Sasse Vote to convict: 9/91
Murkowski vote to convict: 18/82
Jones Vote to convict: 19/81
Manchin vote to convict: 36/64
Senate GOP vote to convict Trump: 0 is 62/38
1 is 16/84
2 is 10/90
3 is 5/95
4 is 5/95
5 or more 10/90

What is interesting is that the odds are that Romney is more likely then Jones to convict:) Also, Murkowski was higher than Romney yesterday

Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think. If the odds start getting close to 3 to 1 against conviction its time to start paying attention.

Rick

RickJs Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skye: riccja

0

Markets gaping up 1/2% premarket, Naked put sales, Senate impeachment trial, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday morning

The markets are up almost 1/2 % premarket. TLT off 1/3% GLD off 1/5% Vix.x off 2.50%.

This is a positive premarket and I expect some follow-through this morning after the open.

One of the most amazing things is the Senate trial on impeachment begins next Tuesday and the markets have shrug it off paying no attention to it.

As I have said, I expect some drama in the Senate but an acquittal after the clown show is over. They do not have the votes in the Senate to convict. As someone put it yesterday, neither the facts and the law are on their side.

The market is about as overbought as I have seen in it. Any startling news at this point could give a sharp reaction to the downside. If by any quirk it starts looking like there is a chance at conviction in the Senate, the Markets would take a nosedive that would leave you either breathless or broke.

To be on the safe side, I would not be overinvested in this market right now. Remember we are dealing with politicians. They are not the most reliable to say the least.

Saying that I have a base portfolio that I am also using short term swing trades and in addition selling weekly puts for income. I do not recommend the 2nd approach unless you are a seasoned gambler. It is one of the more riskier things you can do in the market. You have to stay on top of these trades closely. But with adequate screening you can find some incredible trades with returns you would find hard to imagine.

In order to short puts, you need a margin account, and need to have substantial funds to weather the downside to these trades. When I say substantial, I mean at the very least 100,000 and ideally 500,000. The more the better.

The reason is you are only going to risk a very small % of your account on each trade.

Let’s take a look at the updated political odds this morning:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 11/89 +2 Pts (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
I took the 9/91 a few days ago. I can lay it off at .10 this morning. with a 10%+gain. I am going to hold off for another 10% right now. So will most likely lay it off at .11.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 92/8 +2 Pts (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, they will lose all 3)

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 73/27 +1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time. Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 72/28 Republicans. -1 Pt

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 51/49 No Change
Warren: 6/84 No Change
Biden: 22/78 -2 Pts
Buttigieg 5/85 -2 Pts
Sanders 21/79 No Change
Bloomberg 6/84 +1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 No Change

These are pretty meaningless right now the way the Democrats pick their candidate. Essentially, whoever the party leaders want the party leaders get. And they do not want Sanders. My guess is a brokered convention and a new name appears. I would say the odds are 50/50 that the Democrat nominee is not on the list of candidates right now.

Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think. If the odds start getting close to 3 to 1 against conviction its time to start paying attention.

Rick

RickJs Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skye: riccja

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