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Is the stock market pullback over? My thoughts

Is the pullback over? That is most likely on trader’s minds this morning.

An hour before the open finds us with the index’ positive from 1/10th to 1/4%. Oil is positive, financials, positive, TLT off , QQQ up almost 1/2 %.

To me this looks like a very positive configuration to start the week. I would not be surprising to see a nice rally this week, especially as seasonally, this week tends to be strong historically.

On Thursday I put on a 1/4 position mean reversion trade in SPY. I am hovering around break even on the trade with the gap up this morning. Typically on mean reversion trades you are underwater for awhile. That is why I like to leg into them. As long as you have a good methodology these can be some of the most profitable trades in your bag of tricks.

If you do not have a good methodology they can become a nightmare:) So keep that in mind.

I post most of my mean reversion trades at @rickjswings. Its a free private twitter feed. Occasionally I make some observations in the morning, but lately I have been very active trading. More than the norm right now.

Most of my trades now have been trades that are in and out trades lasting a day or two. These can be very volatile , so proper position sizing is essential. you are going to have losers and winners, but at the end of the day, they appear to have a positive EV.

I only give these trades to subscribers of my sports handicapping service. And then only to those that request them. Not everyone is an active trader. But since I have had my handicapping site up now online for over 15 years, I am always looking to increase value to subscribers, even though the cost of joining the group is ridiculously low:)

Especially if you compare it to other services that charge 4 figures for a season for 1 sport! I will match my results up with any of them. In addition, my goal is to educate. You can see that by reading the “Must read ” section of the site and also the FAQ section.

With March madness here and the NCAA Tournament rapidly approaching now is a great time to join and give us a try. MLB is only weeks away, and it has become a very profitable sport the last two years since I added overnight plays.

Just go to the pay pal menu and pick the subscription of your choice. Most pick the monthly. They all have a 3 day free trial. Plays are sent out via Email, Twitter, Viber and SMS.

My results are very transparent. I update them daily. For historical results from over 3 years ago, you can go to the link on the site. For current and the last 3 years , I update those on Google sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AkTqdb-ikYsN6qaTXTX7w9PgQaW6IvNukLGokgch6M/edit#gid=0

If anyone has any questions, you can contact me via email or via Skype.

Now lets get back to the markets:) On the home front, the political dysfunction is still at a fever pitch. The SC report should be released any day now. The smart money is that it is going to clear the President. And my thinking is the smart money is correct.

Now, will this end the dysfunction? The answer is no. Already the House is getting ready for political warfare. And its going to be bloody as after the SC is gone, I expect a full frontal assault by the white house and the DOJ for the crimes allegedly committed during the last years setting this entire Russia Russia Russia hoax up.

Now I know not everyone agrees with me on this. And of course many do. But the goal here is not to convince anyone of what their opinion should be but only to understand there is more to the story, and you are going to need to know that in order to properly trade.

On the international front its a mixed bag. China talks are moving along, but the tensions are building. India and Pakistan are ready to break out into warfare. Venezuela is a mess, with Russia and Iran scooping in and taking advantage of the chaos. And that is just for starters:)

There really is just too much going on for the human mind to take in. So the best approach is to find some people that are reliable, have integrity, and honest with their opinions. Stay away from the political hacks. They will push you to insanity if you buy into their narrative. If anyone wants a list of solid people to follow for news, just ask.

Always remember, while everyone else is losing their minds, it’s the ones that can keep theirs and retain their objectivity that succeed. This is true not only in all aspects of gambling but in life. Easier said than done, but its one of those things that are essential.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: riccja

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Monday after Superbowl, The stock market, my thoughts

As we head into this week the stock market is hovering right around the even mark. Of note TLT off .36% IBB +.21% , Financials around even, Oil off over 1%, and Metals off sharply.

To me this is a mixed premarket , but overall, a slightly negative bias.

We have had quite a rally from the lows, but we are heading into stiff resistence. In particular, we are getting into the 200 Day moving average area. This is the decision area, where we find out if this is merely rally and we turn over lower, or a V shaped recovery is in the works. Or of course something in between.

Right now we are overbought. Its very tough to jump in right here to go along for the ride. I would wait for a pullback to see what develops. Or at least wait until we get back to neutral, or oversold.

A lot going on, We have the SOTU on Tuesday, Mueller report out any day, Barr confirmation hearings, Caravans heading to the S. Border with U.S. Troops heading there also, A border wall fight that will not go away, Venezuela, and of course trade negotiations with China.

Then just as an aside, we have Russia and Iran, sending people into Venezuela to support the Madura government. It’s turning into a real powder keg. One has to ask, how did the U.S. let it get this far?

So, a lot to consider, but there always is:) The best approach is to have a methodology that manages risk. Easier said than done. But I have been doing it for years. But again, I have the advantage of weathering the poker tables full time in Vegas for 15 years. You either go broke, or you learn.

There is not much to do today. I am going to keep my watch list going, and perhaps take a short term trade. But other than that swing trades are pretty much out until we at least get back to neutral. And as for mean reversion, we are a long way from thinking about that right now.

So as usual:


If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Government Shutdown = V Bottom? My thoughts

Who would have thought. The stock market is + almost 13% since the shutdown. Trump’s political opponents have to be getting concerned:)

Afterall, a nice market crash would fit right into their game plan. But the stock market as it is prone to do as trump would say ” is a tricky business”)

Most everything is in the green this morning except TLT the the metals. This to me is a positive configuration and I would not be thinking this morning of a gap fill trade.

Where this ends is anyone’s guess. Myself, I do not think a V shaped recovery is in the cards. We are right at resistence, the 50% pullback line from the lows of the previous highs.

I am hard pressed to think that we do not turn lower very soon. But you cannot trade this until we actually do turn lower. Or at least have some intraday guidelines to go by.

Today 1647 on the ES is a reasonable start. If we break that then you might consider looking for some short setups. But even then I would be looking at higher timeframes for the Stoch to start turning down.

Another good technical indicator to use as a screen is the RSI below 45 on your shorter time frame with the Stoch and Rsi on the higher ones trending down.

As far as new trades right here, not for me. I may miss out but, I still have a basket of a diverse group of investments so I am not missing out on much.

My TLT trade is under water, and my FXE trade is on the cusp of getting stopped out. So neither have been stellar swing trades so far. FXE is right at the decision point, and TLT for me is also a semi hedge. And even so neither has a very large loss.

Keep in mind, the political environment has not changed it has only gotten worse. I do not see it improving, especially as the media is providing a shield for the disinformation that is rolled out on a daily basis.

If your getting your info from the main stream media , you are sadly living in an alternate reality. And your trading will suffer. Its essential you get unbiased objecting reporting as a backdrop to figuring out the trading environment the market is in.

In addition, the Mueller report is coming out, at least as to collusion and perhaps obstruction any time now. To complicate thing Barr is heading into confirmation hearings and it looks like it will go through the Senate Judiciary along party line.

The excuse for voting no on confirmation of Barr is that he refuses to say he will violate established DOJ policies that have been in place for years. So of course, the Dems are voting against him. If Lynch were being confirmed now, they would all vote yes, despite she told Comey to tell everyone the Clinton investigation was a matter. That was fine with them:)

But that is politics. It gets more interesting in the final vote in the Senate. The odds are pretty high that Barr gets approved easily. Myself, I am not that convinced.

There are two issues here. Does the Senate try to hold off the final confirmation vote until after Mueller releases his report and do any Republicans vote no. And if more than 4 vote no he goes down, as Schumer will have every Dem voting no if that happens.

The reason this is important is that this is a market moving event. There will be a lot of misreporting both before and after the report. In other words, it will be chaos as usual:)

So as usual:

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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What will trigger the market to break from this consolidation? Higher or lower? My Thoughts

The stock market after a runup off the the latest freefall, has been a strong one. Much strong than one would expect if the market was going to roll over and head south anytime soon.

However, you can not discount that until we break out from this short consolidation to the upside. So far the market has taken a breather from its run, and where it goes from here should give a good indication of whether this December november swoon was serious.

On a positive note, I expected the market to roll over when Powell gave his speech last week and indicated that he had not changed course on rate hikes. He softened up a little but still had no indication of changing direction.

This would have been the key time, when the markets could have resumed their downward spiral. But, they stayed solid. Oftentimes its clues like this that give you an indication where the market is heading next. The best clue is how the market reacts to negative news. And we got that clue last week.

So my guess is sometime this week or next we break out to the upside.

For how long that remains to be seen. We still have the Mueller wildcard, the govt shutdown, an impeachment bill brought on day 1 with the house, and the Dems partying in Puerto Rico while Trump is in the White House working on the people’s business.

So there is plenty that could trigger this market to the downside. Hearings will be getting underway in earnest in the House to continue onward with the attempted take down of this President. It will be an onslaught with the media spinning it in the most negative way possible 24/7.

So, be prepared for more volitility once this gets underway. As far as the Mueller report, I am going to share my thoughts on that in the political-odds section when I discuss the 50/50 odds of impeachment wager. There are a lot of variables to consider, an interesting wager to say the least.

But, if things go sideways, after the report, you do not want to be on the wrong side of this market, at least for a week or two.

I am still long TLT and FXE. Those are my most recent trades that remain that I have not taken a profit in. TLT is not only a trade but a hedge, FXE broke out but has now settled back. If it does not get moving I will be out by the end of the week.

Once we give this consolidation a bit more time, I plan on adding a few long swing trades. But that is a few days away.

As I type this the markets are up about 1/5 with QQQ leading the way at .4%. TLT is off slightly,Oil and Metals are positive and the US dollar is strong.

That to me is a slightly positive bias this morning. If the dollar was weak, and TLT strong it would set the stage for a nice bounce. That is the pre-market reading you want to see. But things can change on a dime. But I see more consolidation ahead today.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Did Romney’s Op-Ed start the tone for the Gap down in the market? My thoughts

It’s a very precarious start for the stock market in 2019.
SPY -.87%QQQ -2.42%IWM -.71%IBB -1.28%TLT +.21%Financials -1%+U.S. Dollar +.33%Oil -1%Metals +.5%

Putting it all together it appears to be a negative premarket bias. I would not be trading any gap fills today. Chances for a trend day down seem ripe.

On the political landscape we are still in partial shutdown mode. I do not see Trump caving and I do not see the Dems caving. So, this may well last awhile.

Unless their are enough votes in the Senate to override a Trump Veto. At first glance you might think not, but although a longshot, I would not rule it out.

The house takes control this week. And look out, as then investigations start in earnest. My thought is that the special counsel has been waiting for the change in control of the house. Will issue a report that will promptly initiate the beginning of impeachment proceedings in the House.


I know that there are theories that abound the other way on this but my opinion is that has been the goal from the start. All part of the insurance policy.


I expect a full out assault from the House, The AG in the Southern District of New York, the Media, and from many in the Senate.



Already, Romney has issued a cowardly assault on the President in the Washington Post to start out the new year.

No doubt this was not a spur of the moment thing, but has been planned in concert with others in DC.

This is the time they are going to go full out , to either remove Trump in any way they can. As afterall, the gravy train they have all been on is threatened. And they cannot let that happen.


So that is where we stand going into the New year. The odds are 50/50 of a Trump impeachment in the house, I would be betting he gets impeached. Almost seems like a sure thing to me. They only need a majority, and Ryan and the other 100 republicans that stepped aside to let the Dems take control, did not do that for no reason.


The House gained enough Democrat seats that even if their were a few Dems that had some integrity there would not be enough to defeat an impeachment vote.


The media will be in full frontal assault. Blood will be in the water, and it will be a feeding frenzy.


Now, the question is does Trump survive, and secondly does the Republican party survive.


If anyone can survive it will be Trump. But, Sessions put him in such a hole that I think he is a dog at this point. Unless, he goes on full assault mode and soon. This rope a dope he has been playing is not working.

As far as the Republican party, you are looking at a Republican establishment in its death throus. Trump has 95% of the base and they are discusted with the establishment. The republicans think they can pull off the same thing they did with the tea party. I think they are in for a rude shock.


The end result may well be, the Dems get control of the all brancheds of government in 2020, if they take Trump down and no MAGA candidate comes forward.

The Establishment will not let that happen and my prediction is if trump goes so goes the Republican party.

What does this mean for the markets? Not good. If you thin 2018 was craay, 2019 should be crazy x10.

So be prepared. I would not at all be surprised to see a full blown bear market before the end of 2020.

Happy New Year:)

Now a caveat, I am not alway correct:) But lets just say I think the probability is now low of the above scenerio occuring.

In the meantime all you can do is take your swing trades, mean reversion trades, and see how things go.


I will have more on the Trump impeachment odds in another post later this week.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Pick

srickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: riccja




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