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Kavanaugh Chaos reigns today. What affect will this have on the Stock market? My thoughts

An hour before the open and the pre-market is mixed. SPY and DIA are negative, while QQQ and IWM positive.
 
Of note, TLT off about 1/5%, Metals mixed, Financials and Oil strong.
 
To me, that is a positive pre-market bias. I would be looking for more upside today. Absent news of course. Remember, on Friday can be a new dump day.
 
This has been a monster run for the markets, just when you thought the bull market might be tired.
 
On the geopolitical front, N. Korea keeps calming down and Russia is meeting with OPEC.
 
Also interestingly enough, 4 countries are begging the White House not to declassify intelligence reports.
 
I wonder why:)
 
In the U.S. its the same insanity day by day. The Kavanaugh confirmation has turned into Chaos. It seems like the Republicans are never going to learn.
 
The odds of confirmation are bouncing around a bit, but this morning you can get 2 to 1 if you want to wager on no confirmation by 10/31st.
 
I do not see much reason to change my assessment today. 5 to 1 against a nomination before 10/31st. The Republican will do what they do best. Cave.
 
The most interesting thing to me that is happening in the U.S. right now is the midterms in less than 2 months. The concept of a blue wave has long past. And very little chance of a Red wave.
 
But, an election our of Texas, for a state Senate season was very revealing. A seat held by the Democrats for over 100 years has flipped Republican in a primarily Hispanic area.
 
Wrap you head around that one:) The implications on a national scale? I would have to drop some acid and speak to my inner self before I could figure that one out! But, at the very least, its not a positive for the idea of a blue wave.
 
It would be interesting to see what the polling was on that season before the election.
 
The other interesting thing going on right now is the White Declassification of the FISA documents and text messages.
 
It seems that is like yelling fire in a crowded theatre listening to the Democrats and the media.
 
The race is on however now. Find something against Trump before everything is released. As I suspect, once all text messages and FISA documents are released, the U.S. Marshall will be very busy rounding people up:)
 
So, it will be stall stall stall from here on out. Rosenstein’s mask will come off completely, and Sessions mask in my judgment is evaporating quickly.
 
When the President says he has no AG, I suspect he knows things that most do not. Although, Sessions actions have led many to suspect that anyway.
 
The chaos is just going to get crazier heading into the midterms. If you have an emotional stake in all this, you might want to take a vacation and come back when the smoke clears.
 
If you are a MAGA person you are comfortable in the idea that the President operates best in chaos. As Jon Voight put it, Trump welcomes Chaos.
 
If you are a Democrat or Republican Anti Trumper, you can be comfortable in knowing that unlimited resources are being put forward to remove Trump.
 
You can also be comfortable in knowing that there is nothing his opposition will not to do remove Trump at this point.
 
Get out your popcorn and enjoy the circus. While in the meantime pick off some good swing trades feeling sorry for the miscreants that are caught up psychologically in this mess. And there are many.
The market has turned pretty overbought right now, but remember, overbought can stay that way for a long time. It just means that the environment for swing trading is a bit trickier.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

 
 
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Are we in a bad news is good news Stock Market now? My thoughts.

Let’s start out the day with this statement “The sky is falling”:)
 
Ok got that out of the way.
 
The stock market gaping up this morning with the Nasdaq leading the way at +1/2%
Metals and Financials strong, while TLT and Oil off slightly.
 
To me, this looks like a positive pre-market bias. I would not be looking to trade a gap fill today.
 
Not much happened overnight.
 
The most interesting news going on right now is in U.S. politics.
 
A few weeks ago it looked like Kavanaugh was a cinch to get the nomination, and there was nothing that the Dems could do to stop it.
 
The betting odds had reached 20 to 1 if you wanted to bet against his nomination.
 
But Democrats, the ingenious group that they are, brought out and 11th-hour sexual assault claim that allegedly occurred over 35 years ago.
 
You have to admit that the Democrats know their opposition. Because as soon as that hit, the Republicans were in disarray.
 
The Republicans had no idea how to handle it, while the Democrats sat back laughing at the turmoil they caused, and now actually have the chance to delay the nomination.
 
It would be very easy to prevent things like this occurring, by having a rule that 11th-hour allegations are thrown out as a matter of course, regardless of which party is trying it.
 
But that would be too easy. After all, who does not love chaos in D.C.
 
The betting line almost immediately went to even money on the nomination. This morning it sits at 3-1 in favor of the nomination going through.
 
Most likely that is an optimistic number. The wait right now is for Monday, where supposedly if the accuser does not show up for testimony under oath, there will be an immediate vote to get the nomination out of committee.
 
I imagine that before Monday, or even on Monday, there will be new allegations. Or perhaps a promise that she will testify in another week.
 
But rest assured there is more to come in this drama. The Democrats did not risk going to prison to just stop and give in.
 
So if you are looking to bet this proposition I would say take the 3 to 1. As at the very least you will have the opportunity to lay it off at even money again when the next scare hits.
 
This entire drama displays the difference between the Democrats and the Republicans. The Democrats will do whatever it takes to win, regardless of the collateral damage.
 
The Republicans, just do not want to make waves. They know if they do their gravy train might be in jeopardy. That is why you see them reacting to this delay tactic in this manner.
 
Now you may be wondering, if you are naive, how anyone could destroy a good person and his family for political gain? The answer is very simple. They are a member of the human race. This has been going on ever since civilization started.
 
It is survival of the fittest, and right now the Republicans are far from the fittest in a knockdown street fight like this.
 
If I had to put a line out on Kavanaugh’s nomination today by 10/31st I would say 5 to 1 against.
 
Which leads me to one more interesting observation. One of the biggest criticisms about Trump being the Republican nominee for President was he was not a conservative.
 
So the speculation went, among longtime conservative he could not be trusted to place conservative judges on the Supreme court.
 
Shapiro went as far as to suggest Trump might even put liberal judges on the Supreme Court. But of course, Shapiro has been consistently wrong about Trump at every turn.
 
But now we have Gorsuch and then a nominee like Kavanaugh. Not even the textbook conservatives would do a better job in these two.
 
But the problem as it turns out was not Trump. It was the Conservatives that did not have the fortitude to move ahead with this appointment. They caved at the first sign of trouble.
 
Very interesting to see this little twist. I am surprised that conservative commentators have not picked up on this.
 
Now that brings me back to the opening sentence. ” The sky is falling”
 
Despite all the chaos we see around us the Stock Market makes new highs daily now. Can you imagine being a mean reversion trader on the short side in this market?
 
The lesson is to trade price. The news is interesting. But, how the stock reacts to the news is what is important.
 
In a bull market, bad news tends to be good news. And in a bear market, good news is bad news.
 
That is the perverse logic of trading the stock market. You really have to embrace that before you can have any chance. Otherwise, you will find yourself locked up in some institution before its over:)
 
I will be looking for a swing long this morning. If I find it, I will try to share it on my private twitter feed.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

 
 
 
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Bad news on Tuesday, yet the Stock market blasts higher. What gives? My thoughts

When I mentioned strong pre-market bias yesterday morning I did not anticipate a blowout to the upside:)
 
The news was arguably bad for the stock market. The tariff wars are escalating with China. Syria is becoming a powder keg that could explode any day now. The Fed has indicated that rates are heading much higher.
 
Now, I ask, under what world would this news propel the stock market higher?
An important thing to keep in mind is when the stock market reacts positively to the negative news, the stock market is heading higher.
 
It’s the world of tax cuts, full employment, and massive deregulation cuts. I cannot imagine how far the stock market has to go on the upside if Tariff agreements get worked out.
 
It’s coming, just a question of when. My suggestion to the White House is to get it done by mid-October. End of October at the very latest.
 
My suggestion to Congressional Republicans is to fund building the wall. If they want to stay in the majority that is the one means to almost guarantee it. They know that. So one has to ask, what is their reluctance?
 
My thought is that its the influence of the globalists, chamber of commerce and “Trump Derangement Syndrome”
 
Take your pick, but I think all three have a hand in this.
 
When you start making decisions that are obviously against your interests its time to take a serious look at the decision makers.
 
That applies equally to both parties.
 
This morning an hour before the open, the indexes are off slightly. TLT is unchanged, financials are mixed, while most everything else I look at is in the green.
 
To me, this is a neutral pre-market bias. A gap fill most likely is a high % trade this morning.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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Trade, Kavanaugh or Trump? Which is moving the markets and in what way? My thoughts

The Stock Market is back from the overnight abyss, having turned around to be gaping up about 1/4%
 
Of note, TLT down 1/2%, while Oil strong and most everything else I look at slightly in the green.
 
To me, that is a strong premarket bias.
 
Not sure what the news is overnight that propelled this reversal. It seemed like it traded that took the market down overnight.
 
This is just a stock market that is no wanting to break right now. Despite the increase in the tariff fight with China, the market is ignoring the escalation.
 
New this morning is a Russian plane got shot down by the Syrians, and Russia is blaming it on Israel. Russia has called the Israeli ambassador to have a chat with them.
 
I doubt anything much comes of this. The last thing the Russians want to do is get into a fight with Israel.
 
News on the U.S. political front never bores you. The White House has declassified many of the FISA documents along with orderer the unredacted text messages of Comey, Ohr, McCabe, Strzok, and Page.
 
I suspect getting these documents will not be as easy as a presidential order. Too many heads are going to roll if they come out unredacted. And most likely it will not be Trumps.
 
Then we have the Senate confirmation Circus. Monday is the new hearing date where both sides will have an opportunity to testify about the 35+ year old allegations.
 
I have no doubt that some of these Senators that are expressing outrage at an event that allegedly happened as a minor are involved with the secret hush fund where taxpayer dollars were used to hush their victims over the years.
 
But that makes no difference for Congress. There should be a rule that there is a cutoff for techniques like this. There should never be he said, she said produced a day before the vote to derail the confirmation process. It should not be allowed by either side.
 
But that would be too logical. And after all, Congress was meant for derisive politics of the highest order. They are there to inflame the passions of the public. Honesty and integrity are not words that you can use to describe Congress these days. And it is just going to get worse until you put in term limits and drop outside interest money.
 
To get that down would take an armed revolution, bringing back the guillotine:) And even then I am not sure that would work.
 
So if you are a swing trader, get used to this. This is the norm right now and for some time into the future. If you think getting Trump out of office is going to change things, I have a clue for you. It will just get worse.
 
It really is not about Trump. It is about power pure and simple. If it was only about Trump both parties would be praising him to the highest order for what he has accomplished in less than 2 years.
 
But accomplishments are irrelevant in the world of politics. Power and money mean everything. “House of Cards” lookings like a cartoon piece compared the U.S. political system
 
As I said get used to it as a swing trader and you will do much better. Also if you are emotionally entrenched in these political wars, it is time to do a bit of introspection.
 
It is not worth it to put yourself through emotional stress because of the dysfunction in U.S. society right now. There are much more important things to focus on, where you can actually make a difference. You are not going to be able to change the destructiveness in human nature.
 
Focus on yourself and your family. And then focus on improving your trading. You will find your results will increase geometrically as you wean off the addictiveness of dysfunction.
 
With this turnaround, absent any new news(like a Trump tariff tweet) I suspect this market is heading up today.
 
It is a very difficult market to swing trade much longer than a day or two. So for the time being let that be your horizon.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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What implications does the change in direction of the Kavanaugh confirmation have for the stock market. My thoughts

A new week for the Stock Market and we are starting it with the markets slightly negative.
 
TLT is off almost 1/2%, and the U.S. Dollar is off 1/4%.
 
Most everything else is in the green with oil leading the way positive about 3/4%.
 
To me this looks like a positive premarket bias. Already SPY and IWM are at break-even:)
 
I have talked in the past about the odds of Kavanaugh being confirmed and how getting 10 to 1 that he will not has a lot of value.
 
Well, the odds are almost even money right now. At one point you could have gotten 20 to 1:)
 
At even money, if I was forced to wager on it I would take the don’t. The momentum of a withdrawal by Kavanaugh or a defeat in the Senate to me is an almost certainty right now. The handwriting is on the wall.
 
It appears that all the long vomiting inducing Bork hearings of the past could have been avoided by simply finding someone from High School that would say Bork got frisky with them.
 
How simple. No real defense to it. Accusations are damaging. And with the Republicans that is all you need do. The strategy is in for some time to come now. Next, we will be going back to grade school to find some poor student the person stole a kiss from. Sounds ludicrous? It’s coming. After all, whatever it takes is the motto.
 
Irrelevant it destroys a man and his family. Collateral damage so to speak.
 
The other collateral damage at some point is going to be the markets. The U.S. Government has broken down at this point. It’s almost to the point of being non-functioning. The FBI heads have either been fired or forced to resign, DOJ at some point soon will get an overhaul, and the sad thing is, that will only put a dent in the problems the U.S. is facing.
 
If the polling is even close to accurate, the Democrats will take back the House and then you will see chaos you never dreamed possible with a Republican Senate and Presidency.
 
Of course, you probably thought that now:) Never underestimate the human race. Things most likely can and will get a lot worse.
 
This will at some point take its toll on the stock market. The tax cuts and deregulation have saved it up until now. However, with the Fed showing no fear in raising rates, and the White House showing no fear in keeping up the tariff fights, things can change quickly.
 
Now I do not think the White House has a bad idea on their Tariff plan. The problem is the timing. You can only do so much at one time. And when what you are doing sabotages your other plans, the entire plan might fail.
 
For instance, to pick a fight with China when they are needed to some degree to finally get the N. Korea denuclearization finalized seems a bit iffy.
 
To time these tariff fights with arguably the most important midterms in some time just a few months away, in my mind cannot be a good strategy.
 
The White House, underestimated in my mind, not only the stubbornness of other countries to fall in line but also the degree in which the former administration was going to sabotage them at every turn.
 
From Kerry making secret visits to Iran and who knows where else, and Obama shadowing Trump’s visits to foreign leaders the threats of a damaging tariff battle get diminished.
 
Especially when others are promised and asked to wait it out as Trump will either be removed or if not, beaten in the next election.
 
I could go on and on. I have not even touched upon the problems in the DOJ that may well be Trump’s undoing at some point.
 
Now we can discuss the technical nature of the markets but that is not quite as interesting as real-life events that are unfolding.
 
But let’s give it a go. We are prime for a rally. And we may well get one. But my guess is we dip before we rally here. Or at best we muddle around in this area for a while.
 
One thing to keep in mind down the road is, that if an administration gets in that is pro increasing taxes, and pro-regulation you had best head for the hills in the market. The sooner the better.
 
There is a lot more to discuss this morning, but there is only so much time. Watch the financials and TLT.
 
What I do is have a 15 min chart of each to monitor throughout the trading day. Look for reversals. If you get a reversal in both the markets will follow shortly. That applies to both directions.
 
For example, if you see GS go from positive to negative, while TLT goes negative to positive that is a very strong harbinger of what to expect in the stock market.
 
Does not happen that often but if you catch it right, you can pick off some profits.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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