As we start the week the Stock Market is positive with the indexes up about 1/5%.
TLT is +.5% as is IBB. Financials soft. Not much else of note.
To me, this appears to be a slightly negative premarket bias. I would not be surprised to see at least a gap fill here.
Turkey and China are both in the news today. Turkey because of its dogmatic position on the Pastor and China with trade talks coming up the end of this month.
With Turkey, it’s not a question of if Turkey is going to release the Pastor but when. I doubt they will destroy their economy and the country on this issue. And the White will destroy them if they do not release the Pastor.
China I suspect will so some sort of trade deal or at least open the door to more significant negotiations. As long as the White House allows China to save face a deal will be done. I suspect the White House is smart enough to do that, although Congress it is a tossup.
On the U.S. political front, we have the Manifort trial front and center. Day 3 of Jury negotiations begin today with the rather disturbing news that some of the major news organizations have sued for the names and address’ of the Jurors.
I do not care which side of this issue you are on, this should disturb you. Once that door is open, who is their right mind will want to sit on a jury.
So in short, we have Turkey as a negative heading into this week, and China a potential positive. If nothing develops on the trade talks with China we are most likely heading lower fast.
As a bonus this week we will get a glimpse of the Fed Minutes on Wednesday. With the White House putting pressure on the Fed to not raise rates it will be interesting to see if that has influenced them.
If they become dovish, that will be very positive for the markets.
So as always some conflicting signals. Which means keep your swing trades tight with strict parameters for your swings.
There is one stock I am looking at for a mean reversion trade. NFLX.
It has been pummelled and is now oversold. I will be watching the stock for some type of long signal. In addition, I am still keeping an eye on GLD for a bottom reversal trade.
I will not be around long this morning as I have some home responsibilities to take care of.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks