Is laying 5 to 2 that Trump will finish his first term an overlay? My thoughts.

Its been several months, and the midterms are long past. So lets take a look at some of the political odds that are shaping up heading into the first of the year 22019.

Most of the odds right now revolve around President Trump. Its almost like betting the superbowl. You can find odds on every conceivable situation. From number of tweets before noon to impeachment.

Lets start out with what I think is an interesting line. The Trump leaving odds.

The odds right now of Trump having a full term are about 5 to 2 in favor of a full term. Now, try to be objective and think about that one for a second. The U.S. has the lowest unemployment in almost every nationality in the U.S. in history, GDP is projected to be an astonishing 3% in 2020, Manufacturing jobs are coming back to the U.S. , the Korean peninsula is on the mend, without a missile being fired for over a year while Kim continues to communicate directly with President Trump, NAFTA has been successfully renegotiated for the benefit of the American worker, and more.

Yet, the odds are only 5 to 2 that he finishes his term?

That my friends is the power of the media. Gas lighting as so accurately explained in:

Or as adequately explained in Sharyl’s Ted talk on Astroturfing and the media:

The reason I am mentioning this, is not only to attempt to educate people on the power of media control but also to explain the rather bizzare 5 to 2 odds, in light of what I perceive as a pretty successful first 2 years of a presidency.

As a gambler always looking for overlays, this gaslighting , while destroying the country creates betting opportunities:) Its not really that humorous but what is one to do but appreciate a positive in all this negativity. So we might as well profit from it if we can.

The bottom line is lay the 5 to 2 and sleep well at night. Trump is not going anywhere his first term.

If you think Trump is a demon from hell, and worst of the worst, then you have been gas lighted. Now you may have policy disagreements, as I do with both sides from time to time. But Trump is just a human like any of us.

Not your typical politician like “You can keep your Dr. Obama, Backstabbing smooth talking Romney, Mission accomplished Bush or I did not have sex Clinton.”

He is a builder from NYC. Tough, street fighter, and as Bobby Knight and Jon Voight so accurately put it, Trump is a person that loves America.

Now there is a caveat to this wager that needs to be mentioned. If you are going to wager any significant amount of money on it, make sure that if there is an assassination or an assassination attempt that incapacitates Trump all bets are off. Although the odds are very low, in today’s divided America you need to make sure you have that provision in the wager.

I end these posts with the disclaimer that I support Trump. However, I an independent who voted for Obama his first term. I have been a Democrat, Republican and an independent over the years. I am issue driven not ideologically driven. And I have an uncanny sense of sorting through the chaos to arrive at reality.

Over my poker playing years I have made a lot of money wagering with other poker players on political events or situations. Some of these wagers would almost make you laugh. From a wager laying 10 to 1 that Jerry Brown would win the governor race in Ca ( the real odds were most likely 1000 to 1) to all sorts of situational wagers that had significant overlays.

In addition, my world view can be explained in Max Von Sydows closing argument in the movie “Snow falling over cedars”

So lay the 5 to 2 on what is assuredly a 100 to 1 shot. You will not find that kind of overlay betting on sports:)


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: riccja

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Sign up now for our  newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

MLB Season is free for 2024!!

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques Overnight Plays in MLB are sent out around 3 to 4 PM PST the day before Come join us for a fun and profitable Pro Sports season!!!  
Sign up now for the service. Its free until NCAA FB starts. 

Positive EV Handicapping

Do you know the important clues that help determine which side has +EV?
  • Learn about Reverse Line Moves and how they apply to each sport
  • Learn about being a contrarian and using public % numbers to get an edge
  • Learn about the seasons within a season that all sports have
  • Learn key numbers in all sports

Sign up to get updates that will help you with your sports handicapping!