Perhaps my bad call in Alabama is being rewarded as the Tax Bill took an unexpected turn with Rubio in a last-minute maneuver has indicated he is a no vote unless certain conditions are met!
This is just the start as I see it. I doubt McCain will be back by year-end. And another Senator is out for medical reasons. It will need a Christmas miracle as I see it for the tax bill to get on the Presidents desk by year end.
But the odds are still 2 to 1 in favor. Easy money, we will see.
Also, I mentioned as far back as 5 months ago that getting 6 or 7 to 1 on Ryan winning the primary had a lot of value. That the odds would most likely be down to 3 to 1 and if things go wrong for Ryan perhaps even money.
Well, yesterday for a short time the odds did go down to even money. And they 0are up to 2 to 1.
So perhaps my Alamaba prediction was an outlier:)
The stock market after yesterdays drop is gapping up an hour before the open. IWM leads the way and the dow is lagging as its the only index in the red.
Of note, it’s almost all green on my list with financials and metals leading the way.
This is a positive bias. But all attention will be on Congress. Any news on the tax bill being derailed will send the market south. And if the Republicans wait until after the new Congress gets in session they will only have a 1 senator advantage rather then the slim 2 they have now.
Like I said, a miracle and their window of meaningful tax reform is closing fast.
The fed must have thought the tax bill was a done deal raising rates before year-end. Yellen could not wait it out but had to get the rate hike in. Prudence would have required waiting to see what a bill, if any, came out of Congress and to the President.
But seasonally we are in a very strong period, so it’s going to be a battle on the forces that move the markets. Combine that with liquidity drying up to year end and we could see some violent movements in both directions.
I exited ILF yesterday. TUR has pulled back but still away from my stop. GLD is rebounding finally. And Biotech still languishing. I am still convinced we are due for a monster rally in Biotech:)
I have my eyes on a few more bottom reversal trades. So they may be coming soon.
No day trades yesterday as the Breadth tanked and the market followed. Not the environment for a scalp to the long side.
I will be watching this morning for a trade, but it will depend on what the breadth looks like. Come join me at the open @rickjswings
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks