Sunday political odds update for 08/26/18
Not much has changed in the last 3 weeks on the odds for control of the House and Senate. My feeling is there is still no value on either side of the wagers.
The Republicans would have to buck a long historical trend regarding midterm elections where the opposing party typically gains seats.
At almost 2 to 1 it might be a bit high, but not enough to consider a wager. At least at this time.
The Ohio Special election has come and gone and it was a nailbiter. They finally announced the Republican as the winner but there will be a matchup in a few months.
The odds again are 3 to 2 in favor of the Republican. That seems about right.
On Rosenstein being impeached the odds have moved quite a bit. from 9 to 2 against to now 14 to 1 against. No value here except perhaps on laying the 14 to 1.
Trump being impeached in his first term has stayed steady at around 3 to 2 against. I am not quite certain if this means just the house or it means also conviction in the Senate. If it both bodies I would easily lay the 3 to 2. If only the House, I would be inclined to take the 3 to 2.
Another big mover is who will be the next cabinet member to leave. 3 weeks ago you could get 4 to 1 on Sessions being the next Cabinet member to leave. Now the odds are 55 to 45 against. At this point, I would take the 45 to 55. Sessions could be gone any time now as I view it.
That brings me to one of the favorite wagers I see. Last time I posted you could get 5 to 1 against Kavanaugh being confirmed by 10/31. The odds have now moved to 8.5 to 1. Cynic that I am I can see some problems as we get closer to the vote.
There are too many vehement anti Trumpers in the Republican Senate to think they will get 50 votes without a hitch. Now, if the McCain seat gets filled right away that will give Kavanaugh some leeway. But even then, I expect a hitch or 2 before the vote.
Remember, if an indictment or subpoena of the President heads up to the Supreme Court, at the moment its a 4-4 split. So a tie would confirm the lower court ruling. There are just too many Republicans that want to see Trump gone to think they are not mulling this over.
And make no mistake, if the Republican cannot round up 50 votes they will not get 1 Democratic vote.
I would not be surprised to see this number get closer to 3 to 1 or even 2 to 1 as we approach the vote.
My other favorite wager right now is fading all Dems n States that Trump won. You most likely will not win them all but you should comfortably show a profit on these.
Forget the polls and use common sense. One of my favorite pollsters has stated that any poll involving Trump you can comfortably add 10 points to it. That sounds a bit conservative to me:)
There is a new line that just came out that looks attractive to me. You can get 9 to 1 if you think a 2nd special counsel will be appointed by year end. That looks very high to me for several reasons.
First Sessions is now under a lot of pressure to do something, but I do not anticipate he will act. If he is removed almost with a certainty one of the first acts of the new AG will be to appoint a 2nd special counsel. Now, with this, the timing is the key. And by year end it might be cutting it short.
But you’re getting 9 to 1. Not a bad price for something you can foresee happening.
That is my update for this week.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks